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Benchmarks of a unitary Cypriot economy in 1990
Given continued general convergence amongst the peers in most key indicators and
given that these simple yardsticks have ali pointed in roughly the same direction, it
is worth extending the model to 1990. The average economie growth rates for ail
three selected peer groups for the periods 1964 to 1980 is fairly similar, ranging
from around 5% to around 6%. After 1980 average growth rates drop considerably
to between 2-3% in the period 1981 to 1990, seemingly a development echoed
elsewhere 61 , and presumably one that Cyprus may have been Iikely to follow if
politicai circumstances had not intervened. With the divergence however in the
growth performance of the économies in the three suggested peer groups, caution
should be applied to any meaning ascribed to projections so derived.
Whilst Cyprus' performance may well have been widely at variance with the group
averages, she should have equalled that of the slowest growing économies with
similar characteristics at the beginning of the period looking. Divergence from the
mean in the 1980's is generally so great as to offer a less distinct line in the sand
than projections up to 1980, though as a basis for minimum expectations, the
statista provide a guide to questions concerning the long-term costs of politicai
upheaval on the island. Estimâtes to 1980 seemed to conclude that the short-term.
resuit of the politicai upheavals were negative but not significantly so. Do the
longer-term projections point in the same direction?
Figure 6.30 (below) plots the average annual growth rates of the three peer group
économies over aggregate Cypriot income (total Cypriot income, that is Greek and
Turkish-Cypriot income combined), and which have been used to extend an
idealised unitary Cypriot economy to 1990, from the watershed of 1963. Also
plotted, is the earlier extrapolation that extended a benchmark for pan-Cypriot from
1963 to 1980.
61 Little, Cooper, Corden, & Rajapatirana 1993. op. cit.
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