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It has been argued that if politics had not intervened, by 1966 Turkish-Cypriots
would have received income proportionate to their population size 13 . Given similar
natural reproduction rates prevailing between Greek and Turkish-Cypriots 14 , it then
could be assumed that the Turkish-Cypriot share of Cypriot income would be
around 18% (the Turkish-Cypriot share of the population at the time of the last all
island census in 1960). Perhaps this argument implicitly follows the logie of
classical growth theory and the logie of diminishing returns. Rather than retain
some 14.5% of national income and experience growth at a similar rate as Greek-
Cypriots, Turkish-Cypriots, starting from a lower base experience faster growth. If
then by 1980 Turkish-Cypriot income was equal in share to its projected population,
the model predicts that they were 87% worse off than they would have been in an
integrated economy in 1980. Meanwhile, and on the same basis, Greek-Cypriots
were 18% better off in the divided island in 1980. Either way the problem remains,
would the growth rate of 4.8%, predicted by this rough projection, have been
sustainable over the decade and a half from the end of December 1963 until 1980?
The evidence from other similar économies (see below) suggests it would have
been, though this will be discussed in detail below. First a similar estimate needs to
be made from the 1974 watershed.
Estimâtes from the 1974 watershed
In some ways it is easier to set up a second extrapolation, to project all island
Cypriot economic growth had the de facto north / south division of the island not
taken place in 1974. The advantage here is that the local direct economic
conséquences of the British withdrawal from the Indian Sub-continent and partial
withdrawal from Cyprus itself are largely excluded, whilst the shocks of 1963 and
1967 are partly accounted for, as are the conséquences of some of the major global
economic shocks that occurred in the early 1970's. Using the data from the latter
period the modem structure of the economy is, to a greater extent, built in, making
u ibid., p. 8.
14 Cuco, A. (Spain, Socialist) 27 April 1992. " Report on the Demographie structure of the Cypriot
Communities". Council of Europe, ADOC 6589 1043-23/4/92-4-E.
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