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This thesis has been broadly sympathetic to Roger Zetter's view that 1974 provided a
developmental spur to the Cypriot economy 17 . Whilst the mechanics which led Zetter
to that conclusion have been challenged here (Chapter 5), the general ténor of the
argument is both bold and constructive; 1974 seems to have created the conditions for
significant and class leading economic growth, both in the Turkish and Greek-Cypriot
communities (see Chapter 6). The reasons for renewed and relatively sustained
economic growth (Table 6.9) over the medium term, when other developing
économies struggled, are both différent and complex, having as much to do with local,
regional and international politics, as the choice of economic policies. However,
significant différences in economic policies existed north and south and offer some
explanation for the divergent growth rates. Zetter has proved an inspiration here, even
if he restricted his analysis to the Greek-Cypriot community and concentrated (it is
contested here) on a less dynamic sector during their recovery from the effects of
ethno-national conflict in 1974.
Recovery is one thing, long term sustainability is another. The sustainability of long
term economic growth levels in the south does look slightly problematic because debt
and taxation levels have risen dramatically (see Chapter 2). Economic growth in the
1990s has slowed significantly, in real terms 18 . The Greek-Cypriot economy is also no
less vulnerable to external shocks in one highly sensitive industry, which has
increasingly dominated its economy. Despite the efforts and statements of successive
planners, the Greek-Cypriot economy became more, not less, dépendent on one
industry and one essential produci, mass tourism. Whilst its long term economic
growth levels may be vulnerable, the Republic's position as an independent,
autonomous economy is not economically challenged. In the north, ironically,
sustainability is not a problem because its independence, as an autonomous economy is
challenged by the data and some of the evidence presented here. The economy would
ll ibid.
18 http://www.pio.gov.cy/html/economy
364