California State Rail Plan 2007-08 to 2017-18

2007-08 – 2017-18 California State Rail Plangrowth primarily projected to be the result of general population increases, andnew frequencies.Figure 3A shows that in 2017-18, combined ridership on the three routes isprojected to be 8.3 million, an increase of 67 percent over 2006-07 ridership.Projected service frequencies are: 13 San Diego-Los Angeles round-trips on thePacific Surfliner, eight round-trips on the San Joaquins, and 18 Oakland-Sacramento round-trips on the Capitol Corridor.In the development of increased service levels, service extensions, and newservices, the Department considers the following:• Ridership demand based on actual train ridership, or in the case ofextensions or new routes, based on bus ridership and overall travel demandin the corridor.• Potential to improve cost-effectiveness of existing services, and positivecost-effectiveness of new routes.• Feasibility of increased service based on route capacity, equipmentavailability, and infrastructure quality.• Local support for the service.It is important to note that implementation is subject to demonstrated ridershipdemand, approval from Amtrak and the relevant railroad(s), availability ofoperating and capital funding and equipment, and completion of necessary capitalprojects. The service expansions are described in more detail in later chapters.Chapters VI, VII, and VIII describe the increased frequencies and serviceexpansions for each route. Chapter X describes the new routes the Department isrecommending.Figure 3B summarizes the ten-year operations financial plan. Figure 3B presents:revenue, expense and farebox ratio for existing routes; and projected State costsfor existing and new routes for the ten-year period from 2008-09 through 2017-18.This data was developed by the Department in conjunction with Amtrak based onthe Department’s service levels shown in Figure 3A. The Figure also shows actualand projected costs for the Department’s heavy equipment overhaul program, aswell as actual data for 2005-06 and 2006-07 and current data for 2007-08.Figure 3B shows in 2017-18 the farebox ratio on the Pacific Surfliners is projectedto be 68.2 percent, on the San Joaquins 52.3 percent and on the Capitol Corridor46.1 percent. State costs for the three existing routes are projected to be$156.6 million, and for new routes, $20.3 million.Figure 3C shows in graph form the projected trend of the three key performancemeasures (ridership, revenue and farebox ratio) on each route. These performancemeasures are projected to improve on all three routes over the ten-year period.40