GENERAL MEETING DRAFT - Bankier.pl

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The second half of 2009 was marked by relatively robust growth in both the US and the euro zone, but
the recovery could lose some of its initial impetus in mid-2010. Without some important temporary factors
that helped to sustain the recovery in previous quarters - especially restocking and the strong fiscal
stimulus - growth will be more moderate.
We expect that both the euro zone and the US will grow below their potential in 2010 and will return to
more sustainable recovery only in 2011. In the CEE countries 2010 began with better prospects. On the
back of global recovery, average growth in the region will be positive, possibly 2.3%. In this regard
Turkey and Poland appear to be the best-equipped countries for a more decided recovery. By contrast
we cannot rule out the Baltic and Balkan countries, together with Hungary, growing more slowly. Looking
further ahead, beyond 2011, CEE economies’ growth will be strong, on average, but will in any case be
slower than before the crisis: this reflects not only more modest growth in the world economy, but also the
fact that the credit boom, which was fed by foreign money, will not be repeated with as intensely as in the
past. Given strong economic growth that will however be more modest than that of the recent past, the
CEE countries will follow the path of much more sustainable and balanced growth, while limiting the
growth of foreign and government debt.
Despite the encouraging signs of recover in the economic cycle, European banks’ profits will continue to
be under pressure in 2010 as well, due to weaker revenue and deteriorating credit quality. Net interest
income will tend to suffer from the reduction in business volumes and narrowing banking spreads. Lower
net interest income and the still rather high cost of risk will hamper profit growth this year. However, this
effect will be attenuated by an expected recovery in non-interest income, given the stock markets’
recovery. CEE banks’ profitability will also improve sharply in 2010. However, in some countries
deteriorating credit quality will reduce profits again in 2010 (non-performing loans should peak in the first
half of the year. Therefore, while on the one hand the banks in some countries - Ukraine, Kazakhstan
and the Baltics - will inevitably stay under pressure again in 2010, on the other the more solid countries
from a macroeconomic standpoint - Poland, Turkey and the Czech Republic - will see an improvement in
the banking industry’s prospects.
In 2009 we further strengthened company capital both organically and through recourse to the market,
improved our balance-sheet structure by sharply reducing leverage, maintained a solid liquidity position
and strong discipline in cost control. The Group is now ready to exploit all growth opportunities as they
arise in its markets. They will be taken through a redesigned organizational and business model,
particularly in Austria, Germany and Italy, with a view to increasing our closeness to our customers and to
the regions and communities in which we operate.
Milan - March 16, 2010
THE BOARD OF DIRECTORS
Chairman CEO
DIETER RAMPL ALESSANDRO PROFUMO