Final Comprehensive Conservation Plan - U.S. Fish and Wildlife ...

Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge
Comprehensive Conservation Plan
in the immediate vicinity are also classified as Agricultural (Figure 3.4). According to the ordinances
from the County of Hawai‘i, the unit is zoned as Agricultural. The General Plan Land Use Pattern
Allocation Guide Map shows the unit as a “Conservation Area.” This land use is defined as “forest
and water reserves, natural and scientific preserves, areas in active management for conservation
purposes, areas to be kept in a largely natural state, with minimal facilities consistent with open space
uses, such as picnic pavilions and comfort stations, and lands within the State Land Use Conservation
District” (County of Hawai‘i 2006).
3.7 Global Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recognizes that small island groups are
particularly vulnerable to climate change. The following characteristics contribute to this
vulnerability: small emergent land area compared to the large expanses of surrounding ocean;
limited natural resources; high susceptibility to natural disasters; and inadequate funds to mitigate
impacts (IPCC 2001). Thus, Hawai‘i is considered to have a limited capacity to adapt to future
climate changes. The Pacific Islands Regional Integrated Science and Assessment program is
working to develop tools dealing with climate risk management in the Pacific region. Furthermore,
the Hawai‘i Climate Change Action Plan (1998) offered initial recommendations to reduce GHGs,
and the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative is developing a strategy to deal with climate
change throughout the State.
Similar to the rest of the world, temperatures in Hawai‘i are rising. The EPA has estimated that the
average surface temperature in Honolulu, Hawai‘i, has increased by 4.4°F over the last century (EPA
1998). In particular, nighttime temperatures are notably warmer, increasing by about 0.5°F per
decade over the past 30 years (Arakawa 2008). Recent studies have shown that this rising average
night temperature is greater at high elevation sites than lower areas (Giambelluca 2008). Sea surface
temperature near the islands has been increasing recently, showing a 0.72°F rise between 1957 - 1987
(Giambelluca et al. 1996). Sea level around the Hawaiian Islands is rising by 6-14 in per century
(EPA 1998). Over the last 90 years, precipitation has also decreased by approximately 20 percent
(EPA 1998).
As a result of these shifts, Hawai‘i is developing means to reduce its GHG emissions. In 1990, it is
estimated that 15,985,225 tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) were emitted in Hawai‘i. Other major GHGs
released that year include 75,736 tons of methane (CH4) and 690 tons of nitrous oxide (N2O). These
estimates do not include fuels that were exported, used on international aircraft or ship operations, or
used by the military in the State. International, military, and overseas CO2 emissions were estimated
to be 7,363,261 tons in 1990 (DBEDT and DOH 1998). In 2007, the State of Hawai‘i enacted
Act 234, which set the goal to reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020.
Global and regional predictive climate simulations may not capture unique and important features of
the Hawaiian climate. Existing large-scale models show large variability and uncertainty for the
Hawaiian Islands; thus, applying these models to predict local conditions must be done with caution
until more fine-scaled models are developed (Timm 2008). Models from the IPCC and the climate
model of the United Kingdom’s Hadley Centre suggest that by 2100 annual temperatures in Hawai‘i
could increase by 3°F, with a slightly higher increase in fall. Other estimates predict a 5 - 9°F rise by
the end of the 21 st century (TenBruggencate 2007). Future changes in precipitation are uncertain,
Chapter 3. Physical Environment 3-17