Final Comprehensive Conservation Plan - U.S. Fish and Wildlife ...

Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge
Comprehensive Conservation Plan
The effects of climate change on Hawaiian ecosystems and species is considered a significant
priority by land management agencies in Hawai‘i. This project seeks to provide land managers with
the information they need to manage their biological resources. USGS recently completed a climate
model for the Hawai‘i region to:
• Map the predicted 2100 AD distributions of important management species from Haleakalā
National Park and Hakalau Forest NWR (e.g., endangered species, forest dominants, and key
invasive species);
• Assess the impacts of climate change on these species; and
• Develop options for land managers to mitigate the effects of climate change on endangered
species and their habitats.
Recent USGS funded regional climate models provide the basic physical inputs that will be used to
modify existing species distribution models and then predict future potential distributions for
endangered Hawaiian plants and birds. Future and current distributions of each species will be
compared. Each species will be independently assessed to determine the relative risk that a changing
climate poses to it. Options to mitigate or minimize these risks will be developed and assessed for
their likelihood of succeeding. Land management scientists will be integral members of the research
team. The resulting maps of species distributions, risk assessments, and potential management
options will be directly applicable to the management of these two areas and those responsible for
management of the target species. Land and species managers of adjacent state and private lands will
also benefit from these results. This study is directly relevant to the National Climate Change and
Wildlife Science Center charge, USGS Science Strategy, the DOI climate change strategy, Service
needs, and National Park Service needs.
This project will assess the impacts of climate change to Federally threatened and endangered species
in two, highly-significant biodiversity reserves: Haleakalā National Park on Maui and Hakalau Forest
NWR on the Island of Hawai‘i. Following the assessment, the project will focus on developing
mitigation options and then evaluating their likelihood of success. Land managers from these two
areas have identified a number of key information needs.
The primary issues of concern for Hakalau Forest NWR deal with how endangered and native
species are affected by changing temperature and rainfall patterns and how avian disease
distributions and prevalence change as climate changes. Additional issues of concern include how
climate change will impact the spread of invasive weeds as well as change fire cycle regimes.
To address key management and information needs the project will focus on three major areas:
1. Use a recently completed statistical downscaled climate change projections for the Hawai‘i
region to predict the 2100 AD potential distributions of species of management concern;
specifically:
a. All Federally endangered plants and birds known from Haleakalā National Park (24 species)
and Hakalau Forest NWR (12 species);
b. Additional Federally endangered plants known from areas adjacent to Haleakalā National
Park (11 species) that are likely to have new habitat created in the Park;
c. Key forest dominants for Haleakalā National Park (4 species) and Hakalau Forest NWR
(4 species);
d. Key invasive species that pose threats to Haleakalā National Park and Hakalau Forest NWR
(6 species); and
C-18 Appendix C. Plan Implementation