dossier sur le tourisme et le développement durable

Tourist flows
The three countries of the northwest (Spain, France and Italy) should continue their tourist
growth but at a slower rhythm (between 2.1 and 2.5% per year). In 2025, their market share
should be 64% of the international tourist arrivals in the Mediterranean (78% in 1995). This
improved distribution should not hide the reality of the influx: out of the 230 million extra
international tourists in the Mediterranean during the period, more than 124 million will go to
France, Spain and Italy, compared to 105 million for the other countries. In the same way,
international arrivals will continue to grow in the already mature destinations: this is the case for
Malta (2% per year), Cyprus (2.5%) and Monaco (+3.2%).
In the North of the Basin, the East Adriatic countries would recover their position by attracting 10
million more international tourists by 2025 than they welcomed before the war. This input would
be concentrated mainly in Croatia (about 12 million arrivals) and in Slovenia.
By 2025, Turkey and Egypt, due to the variety of their assets, will become the new tourist
« giants » of the Mediterranean: Turkey with 34 million arrivals will go up between 1980 and
2025 from the 11 th to the 4 th place in the Mediterranean for international tourism (average
annual growth rate for 1995-2025 will be 5.4%) and Egypt will go up from the 9 th to the 5 th place,
with 24 million tourists (average annual growth rate for 1995-2025 will be 7.3%).
Morocco and Tunisia will continue to develop, Morocco more so (annual rate of 4.9%) compared
to Tunisia (3.2% per year) probably because of a certain maturity in the tourist products that will
more than double the number of tourist arrivals.
Despite high, even very high, growth rates for the period but from inexistent international
tourism, tourist gaps still remain in Libya (annual growth rate of 12.1%), Bosnia-Herzegovina
(9.7%), Serbia-Montenegro (8.6%), Albania (5.8%) and Algeria (3.6%). On the other hand
Lebanon and Syria, that were scarcely tourist regions in 1995, will emerge as fully-fledged
destinations by 2025.
The evolution by 2025 (Figure 6) presents a situation that is significantly different to that in 2000
(see Figure 3).
Source: WTO, 2001, Tourism 2020 Vision, Plan Bleu 2003
Figure 6 : Forecast of international tourist arrivals in 2025
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