dossier sur le tourisme et le développement durable

Tourist flows
depopulation, has domestic tourism that is higher than its GDP would suppose, because of travel to
visit relatives.
Source: TEC
By 2025, the rise in Mediterranean tourism will first of all be led by the development of
international tourism, then, in a second period, by domestic tourism due to an increase in the
standard of living in the countries of the South and East Mediterranean.
These exercises in forecasting Mediterranean tourism allow us to make several observations
and to raise some questions:
• Confirmation of a very rapid rise in tourism, with almost the double forecasted for the next 25 years.
This obviously poses the problem of managing the development particularly with regard to the
foreseeable impact on society and on the environment.
• The more and more significant flow of domestic tourism in the Mediterranean, which will mean paying
more sustained attention.
• The uneven distribution of tourist flows in the Mediterranean countries, which would seem to continue
before gradually diminishing. The role of tourism as a driving force for balanced development can,
therefore, be questioned. More particularly, will tourism create enough employment to absorb those
entering the job market in the south and east Mediterranean countries where the population growth is
still strong.
• The wide variety of national situations within this general framework.
Arrivals in coastal regions
According to Plan Bleu’s scenario (RED), the number of international tourists in the coastal
regions will be 206 million by 2025 (average annual rise 1990-2025 of 2.8%) and the number of
domestic tourists will be 107 million (annual rise 1990-2025 of 2%). In all, the Mediterranean
coastal regions will welcome more than 312 million tourists (Annex, Table 17), i.e. multiplied by
2.4 in 35 years.
The question is to know how and if the coastal areas can welcome these arrivals, without being
confronted with an intolerable saturation situation for the environment (destruction of the coast’s
natural environment) and for the quality of living (price inflation, congestion).
Apart from the risks of saturation and degradation of the coastline (see below, page 48), it
should be pointed out that this flow of tourists, strictly limited to the coastal area, will negatively
affect the potentiality for development of the inland area (rural, mountainous, insular) that does
not, in the baseline scenario, benefit from the economic and social dynamics contributed by this
activity. Imbalances will be more and more accentuated between the inland territory and the
coastline as the investments, the human resources and public effort will be concentrated in the
latter area.
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