dossier sur le tourisme et le développement durable

The rise in domestic tourism
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Tourist flows
The forecasting of national tourism rests on an assessment of the holiday departure rate,
according to a rise in GDP in 2025 in the baseline scenario in the Report on the Environment
and Development in the Mediterranean – RED (Frame 3 and Annex, Table 15) and according to
the latest demographic 5 forecasts by Plan Bleu.
In 2025, the number of domestic tourists in the Mediterranean countries should have reached
241 million, i.e. 95 million more than in 2000, with real upheaval in some countries. Turkish
tourists will be almost as numerous as French tourists (respectively 41 and 48 million). Also the
number of Egyptian tourists will be closer to the number of Spanish tourists (22 and 28 million).
We can also expect 11 million Algerian tourists, about 10 million in Morocco, 7 million in Syria
and 5 million in Tunisia.
These figures, even if they should be considered cautiously, demonstrate the amplitude of the
phenomenon that the countries will have to meet, with all sorts of facilities and equipment.
Frame 3: An assessment of the holiday departure rate in 2025
The holiday departure rate in the various countries of the Mediterranean will depend on their level of
development. This will vary in function of the GDP per head according to a graph in which several
phases can be distinguished:
• a stagnation phase with a low departure rate, evolving little with the increase in GDP. This phase
will correspond to poor, rural societies that have not experienced a rural depopulation and that
are equipped with few facilities: none of the Mediterranean countries are currently in this
situation.
• a phase in which the rate of departure will increase very quickly with the GDP: beyond a certain
level of development, desire to take holidays develops and departures increase especially in the
urban middle classes. France and Italy encountered this in the years between 1950-1960 and
several countries of the Mediterranean are currently in this phase (GDP and intermediate
departure rates: Turkey, Tunisia, Morocco, etc.).
• a phase in which the departure rate tends to stabilise at a maximum level, even in the case of a
rise in GDP per capita: the need for holidays has been satisfied, some people cannot or do not
wish to travel whatever their income. This maximum rate would seem to be around 75-80%, a
rate reached by France at the beginning of the 1990s and which has practically not evolved since
then.
Departure rate
Access to holidays
“Pre-tourist” phase
GDP per capita
Stabilisation
In order to assess the departures on holiday rates by 2025, which is particularly useful to establish a
forecast of the tourist flow at this date, it has been possible to model the relation between GDP per
head and the departure levels from retrospective series. For this Plan Bleu had at its disposal series
of departure rates for the Mediterranean countries in 1990 and 2000, obtained from data from
national surveys (the surveys “Vacances” in France, “Familitur” in Spain) and estimates from
experts.
These results were applied to forecasts of GDP per capita in the various countries in 2025 according
to the baseline scenario, and the rates obtained adjusted according to the specific nature of some of
the countries. The constraints of insularity and the small size of Malta and Cyprus reduce for
example the rate of departures despite a high GDP, while Turkey, which had a strong rural
5 I. Attané et Y. Courbage, La démographie en Méditerranée, situation et projections. Les Fascicules du Plan Bleu n°11, Economica, 2001.