1996 Electronics Industry Environmental Roadmap - Civil and ...

Emerging Technologies
also be completed in a systematic way. Most of the displays will contain mercury, radioactive
isotopes, heavy metals, and a variety of other substances and materials that warrant
consideration.
6.3 Key Trends as Reflected in Industry Roadmaps
Perhaps the most valuable source of insight into the direction of technology is provided by the
variety of industry roadmaps that have been published in recent years. Appendix A provides a
matrixed overview of four of the principal roadmaps guiding the development of electronics
technology: the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), the National Electronics
Manufacturing Initiative (NEMI), the Institute for Packaging and Interconnecting Electronic
Circuits (IPC), and the Optoelectronics Industry Development Association (OIDA). The matrix
in Appendix A represents an initial effort to conduct a cross-sectional analysis of the major
roadmaps, and identify similarities, overlaps, and differences.
An examination of the principal technology roadmaps indicates that fundamental changes in
underlying processes and materials in the major component areas are not expected over the next
several years. This is to not say there will not be substantial evolution of technology or changing
requirements for equipment or processes; but the more “exotic” kinds of materials and
components will likely not become significant issues in industrial management until well into the
21st century.
To a large extent, the various roadmaps focus primarily on technological evolution rather than
revolution, since evolution can be mapped but revolution can seldom be anticipated. In
examining the various technology roadmaps, one overriding conclusion emerges: the evolution
of technology will continue unabated, making electronic systems smaller, faster, less expensive,
and more powerful.
This common conclusion has implications for business processes, including environmental management.
Systems must be in place to comprehend, accommodate, and manage rapid
technological evolution and to adapt effectively in those cases when revolution does present
itself. This means that environmental consciousness must be a fundamental part of corporate
strategy, and that analytic and tactical measures must exist for understanding the environmental
impacts of technological development.
The roadmaps also offer insights into priorities for effective environmental management and
policy making. Upon examination of the various segment roadmaps, several cross-cutting
requirements emerge with significant impacts for environmental management and research:
Improved Design Tools: All of the roadmaps address a pressing need for improved
design tools. In general terms, a continuing concern is raised about the adequacy of
current tools to accommodate the rapid advancement of technology, and the fragmented
and often disparate nature of tools currently in place. When tools are discussed in the
roadmaps, the primary emphasis is on IC or system-level design tools, supported by
integrated data management systems and rich modeling and simulation tools.
To the extent that Design for Environment (DFE) tools are discussed in the roadmaps,
they are generally given brief attention. Nevertheless, environmentally-driven decisions
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