1996 Electronics Industry Environmental Roadmap - Civil and ...

Appendix A
Integrated Circuit Fabrication
SIA/SEMATECH IC capability will grow rapidly over the next several decades, from
today’s 64M DRAMS to 64G DRAMS by 2010.
The number of transistors per chip for microprocessors will likely
increase from today’s 4M to as much as 90M by 2010. For ASIC, the
number of transistors will increase from 2M to 40M
Processing speeds will likely increase from 150 MHz today to over 600
MHz by 2010
Moore’s law will likely hold true through 2010;
IC manufacturing costs will continue to increase
CMOS technology will continue to be the dominant high-volume high
performance technology throughout the foreseeable future.
Chip size will continue to increase, as will the number of wiring levels.
Mask count will grow from 18 today to 24 in 2010
Substrate diameter will grow from 200mm today to 400mm by 2010
With each generation of logic products and microprocessors, the
capability to fabricate more devices in silicon exceeds the ability to
wire them. This results in a dramatic increase in the number of metal
levels.
NEMI Even though IC feature sizes will continue to shrink, the demands for
increased functionality will cause overall chip size to increase.
IPC
OIDA
Packaging
123