Travel Demand Model - OKI

OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model – Version 6.04.2.2 Speed-Delay CurvesSpeed-Delay curves are used to estimate bus run times from link speeds. These estimated runtimes are validated against observed bus run times, which in turn were obtained from 1999published schedules (the earliest available). The OKI Model 5.4. speed/delay curves were usedto obtain an initial estimate of run times, and were subsequently modified to better match thepublished run times. The final bus run times are shown in Tables 4-2 to 4-4. In summary, in theoff peak period over 80% of all lines are within 20% of the published run time, while in the peakperiod 75% of all lines are within 20% of published run times. As can be seen in Figure 4-1,there is a tendency to underestimate off peak run times and to overestimate peak run times.Figure 4-1 MVRTA Bus Runtime Summary Comparison, Off-Peak Local Bus30No. of Routes2520151050Under 25%-25% to -20%-20% to -15%-15% to 0%0% to 15%Off Peak15% to 20%Peak20% to 25%Over 25%Estimated vs. Scheduled Run Time(% Error)Zones and Networks / 4 - Transit Networks12