Travel Demand Model - OKI

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OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model – Version 6.05. Home-Based Other Model Estimation5.1 Sample SizeThe final dataset used for estimating the HBO mode choice model consisted of over 14,000observations, of which a total of 12,404 were available for estimation. The excluded recordsinclude intrazonal trips, records where the chosen mode was transit but no transit path wasavailable and records with a highway in-vehicle time longer than 60 minutes. Table 5.1 showsthe number of observations by chosen mode. A common rule of thumb suggests that at least300 records per mode are required to obtain robust estimation results. For this reason, local andexpress bus modes were collapsed into a single transit mode, and park & ride and kiss & ridetransit access modes were collapsed into a single transit access mode. Table 5.1 also shows themodal shares, i.e., the weighted number of observations. Please see Section 3.3 for anexplanation of the weight factors. All estimation results were derived using estimation weightfactors, as corresponds given that the sample is choice-based.Table 5-1 Home-Based Other Sample SizeMode ChosenNo. ObsModalShareDrive Alone 4520 39.60%Shared Ride 2 3806 33.35%Shared Ride 3+ 2992 26.21%TransitWalk 1062 0.82%Drive 24 0.02%Total 12404 100.00%Modal shares are weighted proportions.5.2 Estimation ResultsThe final multinomial coefficients for the Home-Based Other mode choice model are shown inTable 5.2. The in-vehicle time coefficient is well within the typical range for home-based nonworkpurposes. Composite variables were used to obtain reasonable out-of-vehicle and costcoefficients. In the unconstrained models, the in-vehicle time or the cost coefficients werepositive (see runs #38 and #29 in Table 5.2). To constrain the cost coefficient, a value of timeof $3.00 was chosen, given that the HBO value of time is typically about 50% of the HBW valueof time. As in HBW, parking and auto operating costs are not shared among a vehicle'soccupants (this applies to the shared-ride modes). Parking costs were based on hourly rates fordowntown zones. An out-of-vehicle time to in-vehicle time ratio of 2.0 was used to construct acomposite out-of-vehicle time variable. This ratio is typical for HBO models.The mode-specific constants are based on the auto ownership properties of the home. Theyshow that, all else equal, drive-alone is the most preferred option, followed by the shared-ridemodes, with the transit modes as the least preferred across all auto ownership categories. Thisis indicated by the decreasing value of the bias constants (when ordered drive alone, shared ride,transit) within each market segment.Mode Choice - Home-Based Other Model Estimation 23
OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model – Version 6.0Table 5-2 Home-Based Other Estimation ResultsVariablesBest ModelRun #38 Run #29Run #41aEstimate t stat. Estimate t stat. Estimate t stat.In-vehicle time -0.0085 -4.4 0.0005 -0.0079Cost -0.0017 0.0001 0.0005Out-of-vehicle time -0.0169 -0.0165 -0.0131Constants:Shared Ride 2Zero Auto Hhlds. -0.41 -0.41 -0.39One Auto Hhlds. -0.94 -0.94 -0.91Two Auto Hhlds. -2.14 -2.33 -2.37Three+ Auto Hhlds. -5.46 -5.79 -5.73Shared Ride 3+Zero Auto Hhlds. -0.01 -0.01 0.01One Auto Hhlds. -0.16 -0.15 -0.13Two Auto Hhlds. -3.47 -3.66 -3.72Three+ Auto Hhlds. -6.64 -6.93 -6.89Walk to TransitZero Auto Hhlds. -0.26 -0.26 -0.24One Auto Hhlds. -0.67 -0.66 -0.64Two Auto Hhlds. -3.88 -4.09 -4.14Three+ Auto Hhlds. -6.62 -6.92 -6.86Drive to TransitZero Auto Hhlds. -0.55 -0.54 -0.53One Auto Hhlds. -0.62 -0.62 -0.59Two Auto Hhlds. -3.74 -3.93 -3.99Three+ Auto Hhlds. -5.89 -6.18 -6.12No. of observations 12404 12404 12404Log-likelihood -12497 -12497 -12497Rho-squared 0.20 0.20 0.20Value of Time $3.00 $3.00 -$8.65Ratios to IVT:Out-of-vehicle time 2.0 -33.6 1.7All time variables expressed in minutes, all cost variables expressed in 1995 cents.Mode Choice - Home-Based Other Model Estimation 24
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APPENDIX F • TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL
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OKI/MVRPCTravel Demand ModelVersion
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Table of ContentsPart IPart IIPart
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OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model - Ver
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Table A.1 (cont.)Zone System Equiva
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Table A.2Zone System Equivalences -
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Table A.3Zone System Equivalences -
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Table B.1External Stations in the C
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Table B.1External Stations in the C
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User Documentation forAutomated Acc
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[Transit Format][New Link Attribute
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distance for each centroid or node.
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Figure 1Example Control File for th
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LinkType = 99VolumeDelay = 99Lanes
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NetworkScale = 1.0 Scale factor to
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Figure 4Example Output from DRVLINK
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Appendix ASample EMME/2 Transit Lin
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Appendix FTravel Demand ModelingTec
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Index of TablesTable 2-1 Socio-Econ
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Index of TablesTable 2-1 Trip Lengt
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Page 201 and 202: OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model - Ver
Page 227 and 228: Table of Contents1. Background ....
Page 229 and 230: Index of FiguresFigure 2-1 Alternat
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Page 271 and 272: NORTH-SOUTH TRANSPORTATION INITIATI
Page 281 and 282: Run # 63: Start with 7.17 estimatio
Page 283 and 284: Run # 67:Split parking cost from ot
Page 285 and 286: Run # 70a:Include zero-auto segment
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Page 291 and 292: Run # 73:Include residential densit
Page 293 and 294: Run # 76:Nest: auto vs transitVaria
Page 295 and 296: Run # 79:Repeat #72 with zero autos
Page 297 and 298: Run # 80:Nest: auto vs. all othersV
Page 299 and 300: Run # 82:(071h) nested: auto vs tra
Page 301 and 302: Run #3VariableModeDrive Shared Ride
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Run #8VariableModeDrive Shared Ride
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Run #12 test: make aoc=10.5 instead
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Run #29VariableModeDrive Shared Rid
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Run #33VariableModeDrive Shared Rid
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Run #37vot constrained to $7.00Vari
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Run #30bSame as #30a, combine cost
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Run #140 (same as run #40)vot const
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Run #140b (same as run #40)vot cons
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Run #141avot constrained to $3.00 &
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Run #141cvot constrained to $3.00 &
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Run # 1:Base RunVariablesModesDA Sh
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Run # 5:Base Run with walk time set
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Run # 8:Base Run, split walkVariabl
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Run # 10: Nested structure (autos v
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Part VITRIP ASSIGNMENT ANDVALIDATIO
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Index of TablesTable 2-1 Average Ve
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VOBFigure 4-8 Screenline Location -
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Table of Contents1. Introduction...
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Table of Contents1. Introduction...
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2. Surveys and Other Datasets2.1 OK
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Table 2-1 OKI Home Interview Survey
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Table 1-4 On-Board Survey Data Dict
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2.3 External Station Survey - Conso
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2.4 External Cordon Survey - Consol
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2.5 External-External Trip Table fr
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2.20 Screenline Shape File - Screen
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