Travel Demand Model - OKI

OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model – Version 6.04.1.1 Forecast zonal employment by industry typeThe 2030 projections made by OKI and MVRPC for the high-, medium- and low-trip generatingcategories, used in modeling person travel, were reclassified into the four industry-sector employmentcategories needed to estimate truck trip generation, as derived for the base year from the QuickResponse Freight Manual (QRFM).Details: The employment categories needed for the truck model are:• agriculture, mining and construction;• manufacturing, wholesale trade, transportation and utilities;• retail trade;• finance, insurance, real estate and service.For lack of better forecast data, a cross-classification table was developed to be consistent with themethods used to reallocate 1995 employment at the FAZ level in the base-year model. For zones in theOKI region, the translation of 1995 employment data was based on the distribution of 2000 employmentby two-digit industry classification found in a commercial data set purchased from Claritas, Inc. Forzones in the Miami Valley region, an MVRPC staff member reallocated 1995 employment using internalinformation sources. Based on these separate translations of the 1995 employment data, crossclassificationproportions were derived separately for each FAZ. These proportions were applied directlyto the 2030 TAZ forecasts for high-, medium- and low-trip generating categories to produce 2030forecasts for the four industry-oriented categories. This procedure assumes that the FAZ-levelproportions apply to the TAZs within each FAZ and that reclassification proportions are consistent from1995 to 2030. Table 4.1 is a summary of these results, aggregated by county and for the region.Table 4.1 Summary of 2030 Employment Forecasts Used to Forecast Truck TripsOKI-MVRPC ClassificationEstimated Industry Group ClassificationAgric.MiningConstruct.Manufg.WholesaleTransportUtilitiesFinanceInsuranceReal Est.ServicesCounty High Medium Low2030 TotalEmploymentRetailBoone 38% 36% 25% 102,030 3% 35% 34% 27%Butler 42% 36% 21% 182,780 5% 24% 28% 43%Campbell 23% 46% 31% 34,390 6% 13% 31% 50%Clermont 26% 40% 34% 77,090 8% 18% 34% 40%Dearborn 29% 38% 32% 19,110 5% 18% 25% 51%Greene 29% 30% 42% 91,543 3% 13% 32% 52%Hamilton 28% 48% 23% 591,560 4% 25% 23% 48%Kenton 27% 49% 24% 80,610 7% 16% 26% 50%Miami 37% 30% 33% 52,670 5% 40% 26% 29%Montgomery 23% 42% 35% 338,783 4% 29% 23% 43%Warren 35% 42% 23% 89,330 5% 22% 29% 44%RegionalTotals 30% 43% 28% 1,659,896 5% 25% 26% 44%Truck Model - Truck Trip Table Forecasting Procedures 46