Travel Demand Model - OKI

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OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model – Version 6.0In the simple nested model structure shown in Figure 2.1, the formulation employs threemultinomial logit models, one for the primary choice of mode among auto and transit, a secondlevel choice among auto submodes (drive-alone and shared-ride) and another second levelchoice among transit access modes (walk and drive access). In application, the modelindependently addresses auto submode and transit access choice first. This is expressed as:P DA =P w =eeUDAUwU DAe+ eU we+ eU DUSRA composite of the utilities of the auto submode and transit access choices then represent autoand transit respectively in the upper tier of the model structure. This composite measure is thenatural logarithm of the denominator of the logit model, often termed the "logsum". The logsumterm is effectively the total utility provided by the submodes of a particular primary mode. Alogsum value is calculated for each of the second level nests as:lnLogSumU UA=-DA[e +SRe ]LogSum U UT= - ln [we +De ]The logsum terms for the auto submodes and transit access choice then appear in the utilityexpression for the primary mode level as:PT=eTeTθ ∗Logsumθ ∗LogsumT+ eATθ ∗LogsumAThe value of the logsum coefficients θ A and θ T in the upper tier of the model (i.e., auto versustransit), is an indicator of the degree to which the lower level choices form a subchoice that isdistinct from the primary mode alternatives. A value of 1.0 indicates that the lower level modesare not a subchoice but rather are full options equally competitive with the primary modes. Inthis instance, these lower level choices can be simplified or included directly in the upper level. Avalue of 0.0 would indicate that the lower level choices are perfect substitutes for each other.Values between 0.0 and 1.0 indicate the extent to which the lower level choices represent asubchoice.2.3 Model StructureThe proposed structure for the OKI/MVRPC mode choice model is depicted in Figure 2.2. In thisstructure, a choice is first made between auto and transit. Under the transit side, the first levelnest distinguishes between local bus, express bus, light rail and commuter rail. The second leveltransit nest models the choice between walk access, park and ride access and kiss and rideaccess to each transit mode. The highway side is divided into drive alone and shared ride, withshared ride further subdivided into 2-person and 3+ person carpools.The ability to estimate all the coefficients and mode-specific constants required by this modelstructure depends, to a large extent, on the on-board survey sample size (by transit submode)and the quality of the data. Clearly, the light rail and commuter rail branches cannot beMode Choice - Mode Choice Model Specification 5
OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model – Version 6.0estimated, as these services are not currently available in the region. Data quality issues arediscussed as relevant in the remainder of this document.Figure 2-2 Proposed Mode Choice Model StructureChoiceAutoTransitDriveAloneSharedRideLocalBusExpressBusLightRailCommuterRailSR 2 SR 3+ Walk P&R K&R Walk P&R K&R Walk P&R K&R Walk P&R K&R2.4 Market Segmentation ConsiderationsTraditionally, a larger number of trip purposes are maintained in the trip generation and tripdistribution models than in mode choice. Common practice has been to compress the subset ofnon-work purposes into a single purpose because of the similarities in household and individualtravel behavior properties when considering the choice of mode. In the case of the OKI/MVRPCmode choice models, five trip purposes are used in trip generation: home-based work, homebaseduniversity, home-based school, home-based other and non home-based. Only for three ofthese purposes are mode choice models estimated. Home-based university trips are includedwith home-based work trips, so that a single mode choice model is estimated for these two trippurposes. This is necessary because there are not enough observations to estimate a separatehome-based university mode choice model. In model calibration and application, university tripsare again considered as a separate purpose, with their own calibration targets and mode-specificconstants. All home-based school trips out of trip generation are transit trips, so no mode split isrequired.Time-of-day is also an important market segmentation variable. For model estimation, peakperiod levels of service and cost are appended to trips that start during the peak period, whileoff-peak characteristics are appended to trips that start during the off-peak period. This allowsfor the estimation of a single set of model coefficients per trip purpose. However, in modelcalibration separate mode-specific constants are calculated for the peak and the off peak periods.Another element of the market segmentation strategy is the stratification of alternative specificconstants (i.e., bias coefficients) by an indicator of wealth or socio-economic status. Historically,either auto ownership or income has been used for this purpose. The existing OKI mode choicemodels (version 5.4) stratify home-based work trips as follows:• Zero auto households,• One auto households, one worker per household,• One auto households, two or more workers per household,• Two or more auto households, one worker per household,• Two or more auto households, two or more workers per household;Mode Choice - Mode Choice Model Specification 6
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APPENDIX F • TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL
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OKI/MVRPCTravel Demand ModelVersion
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Table of ContentsPart IPart IIPart
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OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model - Ver
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Table A.1 (cont.)Zone System Equiva
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Table A.2Zone System Equivalences -
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Table A.3Zone System Equivalences -
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Table B.1External Stations in the C
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Table B.1External Stations in the C
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User Documentation forAutomated Acc
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[Transit Format][New Link Attribute
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distance for each centroid or node.
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Figure 1Example Control File for th
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LinkType = 99VolumeDelay = 99Lanes
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NetworkScale = 1.0 Scale factor to
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Figure 4Example Output from DRVLINK
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Appendix ASample EMME/2 Transit Lin
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Appendix FTravel Demand ModelingTec
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Index of TablesTable 2-1 Socio-Econ
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Page 183 and 184: OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model - Ver
Page 187 and 188: Appendix FTravel Demand ModelingTec
Page 189 and 190: Index of TablesTable 2-1 Trip Lengt
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Page 229 and 230: Index of FiguresFigure 2-1 Alternat
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Run # 70a:Include zero-auto segment
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Run # 71c:Repeat #71a with zero aut
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Run # 71g:Repeat #71d with wait tim
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Run # 73:Include residential densit
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Run # 76:Nest: auto vs transitVaria
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Run # 79:Repeat #72 with zero autos
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Run # 80:Nest: auto vs. all othersV
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Run # 82:(071h) nested: auto vs tra
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Run #3VariableModeDrive Shared Ride
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Run #8VariableModeDrive Shared Ride
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Run #12 test: make aoc=10.5 instead
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Run #29VariableModeDrive Shared Rid
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Run #33VariableModeDrive Shared Rid
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Run #37vot constrained to $7.00Vari
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Run #30bSame as #30a, combine cost
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Run #140 (same as run #40)vot const
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Run #140b (same as run #40)vot cons
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Run #141avot constrained to $3.00 &
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Run #141cvot constrained to $3.00 &
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Run # 1:Base RunVariablesModesDA Sh
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Run # 5:Base Run with walk time set
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Run # 8:Base Run, split walkVariabl
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Run # 10: Nested structure (autos v
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Part VITRIP ASSIGNMENT ANDVALIDATIO
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Index of TablesTable 2-1 Average Ve
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VOBFigure 4-8 Screenline Location -
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2759OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model -
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Table of Contents1. Introduction...
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Appendix FTravel Demand ModelingTec
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Table of Contents1. Introduction...
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2. Surveys and Other Datasets2.1 OK
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Table 2-1 OKI Home Interview Survey
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Table 1-4 On-Board Survey Data Dict
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2.3 External Station Survey - Conso
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2.4 External Cordon Survey - Consol
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2.5 External-External Trip Table fr
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2.20 Screenline Shape File - Screen
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