Travel Demand Model - OKI

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OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model – Version 6.06. Non-Home-Based Model Estimation6.1 Sample SizeThe NHB estimation dataset includes 6,385 records, of which 5,188 were available for estimation.As in the case of the HBW and HBO models, records that could not be used for estimation includeintrazonal trips, records where the chosen mode was transit but no transit path was available andrecords with a highway in-vehicle time longer than 60 minutes. Table 6.1 shows the number ofobservations by chosen mode. A common rule of thumb suggests that at least 300 records permode are required to obtain robust estimation results. For this reason, local and express busmodes were collapsed into a single transit mode, and park & ride and kiss & ride transit accessmodes were collapsed into a single transit access mode. Table 6.1 also shows the modal shares,i.e., the weighted number of observations. Please see Section 3.3 for an explanation of theweight factors. All estimation results were derived using estimation weight factors, ascorresponds given that the sample is choice-based.Table 6-1 Non-Home-Based Sample SizeMode ChosenNo. ObsModalShareDrive Alone 2807 60.61%Shared Ride 2 1090 23.54%Shared Ride 3+ 679 14.66%TransitWalk 422 0.82%Drive 190 0.37%Total 5188 100.00%Modal shares are weighted proportions.6.2 Estimation ResultsThe NHB models were the last set of models estimated, and thus much had been learned aboutthe dataset from the HBW and HBO model estimation efforts. For this reason comparatively fewruns were required to arrive at a good NHB model for the OKI/MVRPC region. All NHB estimationruns are included in Appendix 3.Table 6.2 shows the recommended NHB model. NHB trips are almost as sensitive to in-vehicletime as HBW trips, as indicated by the similar in-vehicle time coefficients obtained for NHB andHBW. The NHB model however exhibits a lower value of time compared to the HBW model, asexpected. In fact, NHB values of time equal to one-half of the HBW value of time are common.In the recommended model, the relationship of centroid walk to in-vehicle time is kept constantat 2.5. This is necessary because in models with an unconstrained centroid walk coefficient theout-of-vehicle to in-vehicle time ratio is unacceptably high, while the in-vehicle time coefficient ispositive and insignificant (see for example Run #1).CBD indicator variables were used to capture differences in the attractiveness of the CBD bymode, after controlling for time and cost. The estimated CBD coefficients indicate that, all elseequal, transit trips are more likely than auto trips to have a CBD destination. This result makessense given that the transit network is primarily radial and CBD oriented, that is, it providesbetter service to suburb-to-CBD trips than to suburb-to-suburb trips.Mode Choice - Non-Home-Based Model Estimation 27
OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model – Version 6.0Run #7 is an attempt to estimate separate coefficients for the initial wait time (less than 10minutes) and the additional wait time. As shown in Table 6.2, the values obtained for the waittime coefficients show a relationship opposite to what was expected: the initial wait coefficient islower than the additional wait coefficient. This model was thus rejected.Given the experience with the HBW and HBO models, it was unlikely that a satisfactory nestedstructure could be estimated for the NHB model. And indeed, a simple auto vs. transit nestedmodel (Run #10) resulted in a logsum coefficient greater than 1.0. For the application program,the NHB model will use similar logsum coefficients as the HBW model (see Table 4.3).Table 6-2 Non-Home Based Mode Choice Model Estimation ResultsVariablesBest ModelRun #1 Run #7 Run #10Run #9cEstimate t stat. Estimate t stat. Estimate t stat. Estimate t stat.In-vehicle time -0.0265 -3.2 0.0004 0 -0.0265 -3.7 -0.0059 -2.9Cost -0.0030 -2.0 -0.0048 -4.2 -0.0052 -4.5 -0.0008 -2.0First wait -0.0405 -2.0 -0.0528 -2.8 -0.0095 -1.9First wait < 10 min. -0.0260 -0.4First wait > 10 min. -0.0535 -2.1Transfer wait -0.0301 -1.4 -0.0663 -2.7 -0.0419 -2.0 -0.0093 -1.7Walk access time -0.0663 -0.0986 -4.2Transfer walk time -0.0623 -1.7Drive access time -0.0588 -0.9 -0.0334 -0.5 -0.0468 -0.8 -0.0096 -0.4CBD IndicatorShared Ride 2 -0.36 -1.6Shared Ride 3+ -1.21 -3.1Walk to Transit 0.45 0.8 -0.38 -1.3Drive to Transit 1.93 3.0 0.65 2.0Logsum (Theta) 4.69 9.7Constants:Shared Ride 2 -0.97 -0.97 -0.97 -0.95Shared Ride 3+ -1.44 -1.44 -1.44 -1.41Walk to Transit -1.48 -0.96 -1.47 -0.24Drive to Transit -2.65 -1.93 -2.11 -1.10No. of observations 5188 5188 5188 5188Log-likelihood -4446 -4456 -4459 -4413Rho-squared 0.31 0.30 0.30 0.31Value of Time $5.32 $3.08 $4.48Ratios to IVT:First wait 1.5 1.6First wait < 10 min. 1.0First wait > 10 min. 2.0Transfer wait 1.1 1.6 1.6Walk access 2.5 2.5 2.5Transfer walk 2.4Drive access 2.2 1.8 1.6All time variables expressed in minutes, all cost variables expressed in 1995 cents.Mode Choice - Non-Home-Based Model Estimation 28
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APPENDIX F • TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL
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OKI/MVRPCTravel Demand ModelVersion
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Table of ContentsPart IPart IIPart
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OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model - Ver
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Table A.1 (cont.)Zone System Equiva
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Table A.2Zone System Equivalences -
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Table A.3Zone System Equivalences -
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Table B.1External Stations in the C
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Table B.1External Stations in the C
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User Documentation forAutomated Acc
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[Transit Format][New Link Attribute
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distance for each centroid or node.
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Figure 1Example Control File for th
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LinkType = 99VolumeDelay = 99Lanes
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NetworkScale = 1.0 Scale factor to
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Figure 4Example Output from DRVLINK
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Appendix ASample EMME/2 Transit Lin
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Appendix FTravel Demand ModelingTec
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Index of TablesTable 2-1 Socio-Econ
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Index of TablesTable 2-1 Trip Lengt
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Page 205 and 206: OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model - Ver
Page 227 and 228: Table of Contents1. Background ....
Page 229 and 230: Index of FiguresFigure 2-1 Alternat
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Page 271 and 272: NORTH-SOUTH TRANSPORTATION INITIATI
Page 281 and 282: Run # 63: Start with 7.17 estimatio
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Page 295 and 296: Run # 79:Repeat #72 with zero autos
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Page 301 and 302: Run #3VariableModeDrive Shared Ride
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Run #29VariableModeDrive Shared Rid
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Run #33VariableModeDrive Shared Rid
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Run #37vot constrained to $7.00Vari
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Run #30bSame as #30a, combine cost
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Run #140 (same as run #40)vot const
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Run #140b (same as run #40)vot cons
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Run #141avot constrained to $3.00 &
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Run #141cvot constrained to $3.00 &
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Run # 1:Base RunVariablesModesDA Sh
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Run # 5:Base Run with walk time set
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Part VITRIP ASSIGNMENT ANDVALIDATIO
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Index of TablesTable 2-1 Average Ve
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VOBFigure 4-8 Screenline Location -
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2759OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model -
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Table of Contents1. Introduction...
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Table of Contents1. Introduction...
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2. Surveys and Other Datasets2.1 OK
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Table 2-1 OKI Home Interview Survey
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Table 1-4 On-Board Survey Data Dict
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2.3 External Station Survey - Conso
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2.4 External Cordon Survey - Consol
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2.5 External-External Trip Table fr
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2.20 Screenline Shape File - Screen
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