Travel Demand Model - OKI

OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model – Version 6.04.1 Facility Type ValidationTables 4.1 to 4.3 show validation statistics by facility type for the consolidated region, the OKIregion and the MVRPC region, respectively. For the combined region, total VMT is within 3% ofthe observed data, while total volume is within 4% of the observed volumes. VMT for the highlevel roads (freeways, expressways, major and minor arterials) is estimated well within 8% of theobserved VMT, and similarly total volume for each of these classes is estimated within 10% oftheir respective total volumes. The percent RMSE for these facility types is approximately 40%or lower. The lower level facility classes show higher estimation error, as is typically the case. Asimilar pattern is observed for each individual region: the high level facilities show lowerestimation errors than the low level facilities. Overall however, the validation results within eachregion meet industry standards and compare very favorably with results obtained in other U.S.metropolitan areas.Table 4-1 Facility Type Validation Statistics – Consolidated RegionFacilityObserved TrafficEstimated Traffic % Error Max. %Type Code No. Obs. Volume VMT Volume VMT Volume VMT % VMT RMSEAll Types 16,723 119,146,881 47,303,224 117,152,168 46,042,955 -2% -3% 3% 37%Interstate 1 906 34,569,266 18,483,580 34,551,470 18,734,021 0% 1% 7% 14%Major Arterial 2 3,128 29,064,407 8,361,900 30,388,379 8,662,355 5% 4% 10% 35%Minor Arterial 3 3506 23,269,064 8,009,081 22,892,081 7,698,949 -2% -4% 10% 40%Major Collector 4 5,953 20,256,652 8,047,241 17,486,724 6,899,078 -14% -14% 15% 54%Minor Collector 5 664 645,071 559,619 576,587 472,779 -11% -16% 15% 101%Local 6 1,497 2,564,344 1,220,051 2,082,756 915,370 -19% -25% 15% 77%Ramp 8 865 5,738,705 940,416 5,976,192 938,872 4% 0% 15% 40%Expressway 9 204 3,039,372 1,681,337 3,197,979 1,721,532 5% 2% 10% 30%Max. % VMT error is an ODOT guideline. Please see Traffic Assignment Procedures, ODOT Division of Planning, Office ofTechnical Services, 2001.Table 4-2 Facility Type Validation Statistics – OKI Council RegionFacility Observed TrafficEstimated Traffic % Error Max. %Type Code No. Obs. Volume VMT Volume VMT Volume VMT % VMT RMSEAll Types 12,795 96,943,993 38,028,105 95,744,738 36,923,826 -1% -3% 3% 36%Interstate 1 785 30,913,276 15,100,663 30,902,687 15,275,678 0% 1% 7% 14%Major Arterial 2 2,438 22,435,548 6,615,284 23,733,179 6,919,300 6% 5% 10% 36%Minor Arterial 3 2552 17,234,972 6,259,230 17,365,555 6,081,085 1% -3% 10% 39%Major Collector 4 4,762 16,954,517 6,791,538 14,310,687 5,641,049 -16% -17% 15% 53%Minor Collector 5 486 483,569 406,200 434,067 339,104 -10% -17% 15% 106%Local 6 937 2,038,101 962,662 1,620,835 721,962 -20% -25% 15% 68%Ramp 8 689 4,885,324 766,954 5,143,252 779,814 5% 2% 15% 38%Expressway 9 146 1,998,686 1,125,575 2,234,476 1,165,833 12% 4% 10% 31%Max. % VMT error is an ODOT guideline. Please see Traffic Assignment Procedures, ODOT Division of Planning, Office ofTechnical Services, 2001.Assignment and Validation - Highway Assignment Validation 10