Travel Demand Model - OKI

OKI/MVRPC Travel Demand Model – Version 6.0Table 4-3 Facility Type Validation Statistics – MVRPC RegionFacility Observed TrafficEstimated Traffic % Error Max. %Type Code No. Obs. Volume VMT Volume VMT Volume VMT % VMT RMSEAll Types 3,918 22,092,347 9,056,599 21,300,002 8,884,874 -4% -2% 3% 42%Interstate 1 119 3,576,044 3,181,852 3,569,631 3,259,226 0% 2% 7% 17%Major Arterial 2 690 6,628,859 1,746,616 6,655,200 1,743,054 0% 0% 10% 29%Minor Arterial 3 956 6,015,225 1,748,777 5,518,532 1,614,667 -8% -8% 15% 43%Major Collector 4 1,185 3,293,047 1,243,983 3,164,701 1,242,025 -4% 0% 15% 62%Minor Collector 5 174 158,862 148,757 133,574 117,738 -16% -21% 15% 78%Local 6 560 526,243 257,389 461,921 193,408 -12% -25% 15% 106%Ramp 8 176 853,381 173,462 832,940 159,058 -2% -8% 15% 52%Expressway 9 58 1,040,686 555,762 963,503 555,698 -7% 0% 10% 27%Max. % VMT error is an ODOT guideline. Please see Traffic Assignment Procedures, ODOT Division of Planning, Office ofTechnical Services, 2001.4.2 Volume Group ValidationThe validation by volume group is shown in Figures 4.1 and 4.2 and Tables 4.4 to 4.6. In bothregions the medium and high volume groups fall below the maximum allowable percent RMSE,while the low volume groups are on or slightly above the maximum tolerance. The MVRPCregion shows higher error, which is not unexpected given that this region could not be includedin the trip distribution calibration. Even so, the validation shows that the consolidated modelapplies well to the Dayton area, and that possibly only minor adjustments may be required tofinesse the distribution model. However, it is not recommended to attempt such refinementswithout having good observed OD pattern data.Figure 4-1 Volume Percent RMSE Tolerances, Consolidated Region% RMSE100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%Max.%RMSE Cons.0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000Volume GroupAssignment and Validation - Highway Assignment Validation 11