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6.8.2 The Bypass is projected to carry 11 2 000 pcus per day in 2001 at a V/C ratio of 0.8while the !EC Link is projected to carry 86 000 pcus per day and operate at 90% ofcapacity westbound. With relatively little development assumed by this Study for2001 on the new Central and Wan Chai reclamation, parallel roads in Central, WanChai and Causeway Bay are expected to be relieved of substantial traffic. This resultsfrom both relief by the Bypass and diversions out of this area caused by the WesternHarbour Crossing. All streets east of Cotton Tree Drive are expected to operatewithin capacity during the morning peak period except for a few scattered linkswhich will be operating at capacity.6.8.3 The WHC would divert tunnel-related traffic away from the area, resulting ingenerally satisfactory operations through the existing Cross Harbour tunnel. However,it would make no improvement in east-west capacity and congestion would occuron several links, particularly between the I EC end and the existing Cross Harbourtunnel. The fact that most streets with capacity problems in 1996 without thecombined project are east of the tunnel suggests that the need for the iEC Link ismore critical than the Bypass. It is estimated that if the I EC Link alone were in placein 1996, it would carry about 38 000 pcus per day and relieve both Victoria Park andGloucester Roads.6.8.4 Economic evaluation indicated that both the Bypass and the IEC Link haveMEDIUM rates of return.6.8.5 The project would be built largely on the Central and Wan Chai Reclamation, andwould depend on the timing of this development. The current programme for thereclamation indicates staged development proceeding generally from east to west. Aconstruction programme consistent with the anticipated development is as follows:Island Eastern Corridor LinkCentral and Wan Chai Bypassearly to mid 1990smid to late 1990s6.8.6 Conclusions—The Centra! and Wan Chai Bypass and I EC Link will be required by2001 for east-west movements through the north shore of Hong Kong Island.Completion of the Western Harbour Crossing by the mid 1990s would allow theBypass to be deferred until the late 1990s. Completion of the IEC Link in the mid1990s would result in satisfactory traffic operations in the area, while deferral to thelate 1990s would result in congestion on sections of Gloucester and Victoria ParkRoads.6.9 Route 166.9.1 Route 16 is a proposed dual 2-tane expressway connecting Sha Tin with urbanKowloon. This facility would run roughly parallel to Tai Po Road. Route 16 isexpected to carry 48 000 pcus per day in 2001 and operate at about 60% of capacityin the morning peak. Route 5 would be relieved of about 25% of its volume and becongestion free. However, Tate's Cairn and Lion Rock tunnels would operateslightly above practical capacity. This is assuming equal tolls for all,tunnels linkingthe North-east New Territories to urban Kowloon corridor; modification of the tollstructure could improve the distribution of traffic among the tunnels.6.9.2 The HIGH Single Year Rate of Return on this project indicated that it is aneconomically worthwhile investment.6.9.3 The need for this project depends critically on the build-up in traffic movingbetween Kowloon and the North-east New Territories, and this will be affected bythe impact of traffic management policies (see Chapter 9). Therefore, traffic growthshould be monitored to determine the appropriate timing of this project.6.9.4 Analyses indicated that the amount of relief provided by Route 16 to other tunnels inthe corridor depends on the connection of the project to the urban area in Kowloon.A detailed investigation would be required to address this issue.111