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Conclusions7.9.15 At the projected populations for Ma On Shan for 1996 and 2001, patronageestimates for a light rail system linking Ma On Shan to Tai Wai are sufficient to justifyserious consideration of this project. However, volumes would be approaching thecapacity of a light rail system as currently envisaged. Also, bus services can handlethe passenger transport without much problem.7.9.16 The economic evaluation indicates poor returns on this project, both in financial andeconomic terms, which indicates a low priority. This is mainiy because of therelatively low average journey speed of the line as noted above resulting in lowoperating benefits over buses. Strong competition from buses operating in parallelto the light rail line adversely affects the financial viability of this project.7.9.17 The Ma On Shan LRT system would be enhanced if extended to Diamond Hill. Thisproject is looked at in the next section.7.10 Diamond Hill Light Rail Line7.10.1 This project comprises a light rail line connecting the KCR station of Tai Wai (theterminus of the possible Ma On Shan LRT) with the MTR station at Diamond Hill.The project would have the characteristics of an urban link, with just oneintermediate station at Tsz Wan Shan, and an average journey speed of 55 km/h.With the Ma On Shan LRT system completed, through trains could be run from MaOn Shan to Diamond Hill.Patronage Projections7.10.2 Passenger volumes on this line depend on whether or not the Ma On Shan LRTline is in operation. Thus the following volumes are projected (in thousands ofpassengers'per day);1996 2001With Ma On Shan Line 135 172Without Ma On Shan Line 87 111Service and Capacity7.10.3 As noted in the previous section, 4-car trains running at 2 minute headways wereassumed to match the proposed Ma On Shan LRT service. The 2001 projectedpatronage in this situation would be at the design capacity of an inter-urban LRT,although still short of an acceptable normal capacity.7.10.4 The patronage estimates reported here assume that the LRT would operate as astand-alone system with no fare integration with other rail modes. If fare integrationwere in operation, or if Ma On Shan population were to grow much beyond thecurrently projected 2001 population, the capacity of the Diamond Hill LRT couldbe exceeded. Capacity would also be exceeded if the East Kowloon Line wereconstructed south of Diamond Hill since this project would channel passenger flowsinto the Diamond Hill-Sha Tin corridor.Financial/Economic Evaluation7.10.5 As an extension of the Ma On Shan LRT system, the Diamond Hill LRT shows goodfinancial returns by 2001. However, a drop in revenue on the KCR main line wouldmodify these results overall for a KCRC-run light rail operation. The economicevaluation also shows good results for this line, with a HIGH rating at 2001 whetherwith full time savings or counting just one third of time savings, and dropping toMEDIUM only in the case of taking one third of time savings in 1996.140
7.10.6 The Diamond Hill LRT project was not evaluated without the Ma On Shan LRT, butestimates of the impact on economic results of omitting that line can be made. Asindicated above, projected passenger volumes on the Diamond Hill LRT would dropby about one third in the absence of the Ma On Shan LRT. Assuming revenues andeconomic benefits drop proportionately, the economic returns on the project wouldstill be rated HIGH with full time savings, dropping to MEDIUM with only one thirdof time savings counted.7.10.7 Taking Diamond Hill and Ma On Shan results together (which probably exaggeratesbenefits) the financial returns are rated as LOW for 1996 but MEDIUM for 2001.Economic returns for the joint project are rated as MEDIUM counting all timebenefits, but LOW with one third of time savings.Conclusions7.10.8 On the assumptions tested, the Diamond Hill LRT as an extension of the Ma OnShan LRT would represent a good rail-based transport investment. However, likeother light rail lines examined, the projected passenger volumes by 1996 alreadyreach design capacity and could well exceed capacity under other assumptions,in particular with stronger population growth in the corridor, with differentassumptions on fare structures and with an East Kowloon line built south ofDiamond Hill. The extension of the MTR East Kowloon Line to Sha Tin would offermuch greater capacity and would be the more natural project for this corridor. Hencea decision on the Diamond Hill LRT depends on a final decision on the East KowloonLine.7.11 KCR Main Line Extensions to Tsim Tsui and Sheung Wan7.11.1 The KCR main line currently terminates at Hung Horn which, while quite satisfactoryfor international passengers, is not very convenient for most of the urban railcommuters using the line. As a consequence, most passengers destined for the mainurban area of Kowloon or Hong Kong Island change at Kowloon Tong to the MTRsystem.7.11.2 CTS-2 looked at a proposal to improve the accessibility of the KCR main line byconstructing a-branch line from the KCR main line, starting at Mong Kok, runningalong the pre-1975 alignment of the KCR parallel with Chatham Road, andterminating near the Kowloon terminus of the Star Ferry. This branch line would beunderground for most of its length. An intermediate station would be provided toserve Tsim Sha Tsui East, and underground walkways would be provided to connectto the MTR station at Tsim Sha Tsui. With this branch line, the main line suburbanservices were assumed to terminate at Star Ferry on Kowloon side while theinternational traffic and freight traffic would continue to use Hung Horn Station.A further extension of this line across the Harbour to Hong Kong Island at SheungWan was also examined.Patronage Projections7.11.3 Passenger volumes were projected as follows (in thousands of passengers per day):Extension toMariner OnlyExtension toSheung Wan1996 2001 1996 2001Mong Kok to Hung Horn 162 177 101 111Mong Kok to TST East 165 195 311 366TST East to Star Ferry 100 123 240 295Cross-Harbour 193 237141
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THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONGLIBRARIE
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EPPrinted and Published by the Gove
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CONTENTSPage6. OF 966.1 Introductio
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Page3.1 Licensed Vehicles 1976-1988
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FIGURES_Page1.1 Special Character o
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Page1.1 Second Comprehensive Transp
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TRANSPORTPER UNIT OF GDPCars Per Th
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KCR Double Tracking &\ Electrificat
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1.2 The Second Comprehensive Transp
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1.2.17 The way in which these recla
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ANNEX1.1Terms of Reference(1) To pr
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2.2.1 introduction2.1.1 This chapte
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2.2: OF THEPROJECTS AND POLICIESFOR
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Transport Networks2.5.2 Description
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2.6.11 Operational Evaluation—The
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3.1GO OLicensed Vehicle Fleets (a]P
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Table 3.3 VEHICLE(Dollars per year)
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3.2.7 The car and motorcycle fleet
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3.2.14 The non-van goods vehicle fl
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3.2.23 Use of Light Vans as Private
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3.3 Road Usage and Road Constructio
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FIGURE 3.11:TRAFFIC IN URBAN HONG K
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FIGURE 3.14:TRAFFIC IN THE NEW TERR
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Table 3.6 CROSS HARBOUR TUNNEL TOLL
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3.5 Public Transport Patronage3.5.1
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3.5.4 The growth in rail transport
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taxi productivity. The average paid
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4.4.1 introduction4.1.1 Demand for
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Table 4.2DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION
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AreaTable 4.4Hong Kong islandKowioo
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4.2.14 An additional 425 000 jobs i
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4.3(1986-2001)Growth Over 1988Perio
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included in the financial costs. Pe
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4.5 International Traffic4.5.1 Proj
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Cross Border Rail Passenger Traffic
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Table 4.17IN(1971-1989)HighwayPrice
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contribution of Government equity t
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5. FORECASTS OF THE TRANSPORT SCENE
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FIGURE 5.2:PROJECTED DAILY TRIP MAK
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FIGURE 5.3: 1986 GENERATIONS AND AT
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FIGURE 5.5: PERSON TRAVEL DEMAND(CO
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Table 5.4PROJECTIONS OF DAILY TRIP
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Table 5.5 SCHEDULED PUBLIC BY(thous
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• FANLING/SHEUNG SHUIRMA ON SHANH
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Cars and taxis 1.00Minibus/Special
Page 92 and 93: LEGEND V/C Ratio Range• 1.1 - 1.2
Page 94 and 95: •Vf'rLEGEND V/C Ratio Range> 1.1
Page 96 and 97: FIGURE 5.13:TRAFFIC SPEEDS BY ROAD
Page 98 and 99: 6. OF6.1 Introduction6.1.1 This cha
Page 100 and 101: LEGENDMajor Committed Road ProjectK
Page 102 and 103: LEGENDCandidate Road ProjectKowloon
Page 104 and 105: A V/C ratio of 1.0 or less indicate
Page 106 and 107: Table 6.3 SUMMARY OF HIGHWAY PORJEC
Page 108 and 109: 6.5.1 2 The traffic implications of
Page 110 and 111: 6.5.27 it is estimated that traffic
Page 112 and 113: 6.7 and Airport Tunnel6.7.1 The Hun
Page 114 and 115: 6.9.5 Conclusions— This is likely
Page 116 and 117: 6.4(1988 Prices)ProjectLocFinancial
Page 118 and 119: sufficient detail to permit compute
Page 120 and 121: LEGENDMTR £_EHC LRT(under vL} cons
Page 122 and 123: 7.1Peak TramHong KongTramwaysKowloo
Page 124 and 125: MTR/KCR Interchange7.2.14 A key tra
Page 126 and 127: day, particularly in the peak hour.
Page 128 and 129: Impacts on Urban Development7.3.28
Page 130 and 131: 7.4.2 The East Kowloon Line would s
Page 132 and 133: 7.4.1 2 Both the financial return a
Page 134 and 135: 7.5.17 Patronage and economic resul
Page 136 and 137: Rail Operations7.6.15 Two proposals
Page 138 and 139: passenger services. Also, while lig
Page 140 and 141: .S.Bi ne economic evaluation or tne
Page 144 and 145: 7.11.4 With an extension to Star Fe
Page 146 and 147: 7.13.7 It is estimated that the LRT
Page 148 and 149: Conclusions7.14.13 Both harbour cro
Page 150 and 151: 7.15.14 Financial support for the n
Page 152 and 153: FIGURE 8.1: PASSENGER TRANSPORT BY
Page 154 and 155: Railways8.2.6 Rail services began t
Page 156 and 157: Table 8.2PROJECTED DEMAND FOR SCHED
Page 158 and 159: FANLING/SHEUNG SHUIYUENLONGMA ON SH
Page 160 and 161: severe on the MTR island Line where
Page 162 and 163: 8.4.10 The KCR main Sine is expecte
Page 164 and 165: Cross Harbour Bus Operations8.5.9 T
Page 166 and 167: 8.7.3 In the New Territories, the r
Page 168 and 169: ail corridor is now operating at fu
Page 170 and 171: urban area, the short term means of
Page 172 and 173: (2) More vehicles are required to d
Page 174 and 175: are classified under Vehicle Owners
Page 176 and 177: 9.5.5 Supplementary Licences—Thes
Page 178 and 179: 9.5.19 Controls are required on bot
Page 180 and 181: Park and Hide9.6.4 This policy prom
Page 182 and 183: Alternative Scenarios for the Evalu
Page 184 and 185: 9.7.18 Thus although the Centra! ec
Page 186 and 187: 9.3 INNumber of vehs (thous)CarsTax
Page 188 and 189: Table 9.4ON(Increases in goods vehi
Page 190 and 191: 9.11.3 The specific scheme chosen w
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Table 9.5(Similar to Scheme B inves
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traffic assessments. If the increas
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10 ON10.1 Introduction10.1.1 This c
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10.2.9 There are clearly some possi
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Railway Funding10.3.11 An expenditu
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Private Car Controls10.5.9 It is re
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c:,LEGEND V/C Ratio Range1.1 - 1.2>
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10.6.4 Several roads are projected
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o1991 Committed1996 Recommended Str
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operation and operator. Much depend
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ANNEX 10.1PROJECTIONS OF THE VEHICL
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ANNEX 10.4BY(thousand vehicles per
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TOC
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