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Transport Networks2.5.2 Descriptions of the transport system were prepared, including physical characteristicsof transport links (e.g. road lengths, road width, etc.) and the characteristics ofpublic transport services operating on them (e.g. routes followed, service frequencies,vehicle carrying capacity, etc.). Based on the results of the speed-flow surveyreported above, relationships were derived linking traffic speeds to congestionlevels; thus the model could estimate travel speeds in the transport network based onphysical capacity of transport links and the estimated volume of travel demand.Planning Data2.5.3 Estimates of the future growth, distribution and characteristics of population,employment, household and school places were made based on projections by theWorking Group on Population Distributions (WGPD) and work of the StrategicPlanning Unit (SPU) of Lands and Works Branch, and also on data providedby Census and Statistics Department, Territory Development Department, TownPlanning Office, Education Department and other relevant organisations.Economic Growth2.5.4 For the purpose of this study, it was assumed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP)would grow by 5%-6% per year over the period 1988-2001. Together with thepopulation and employment projections, estimates of the growth in GDP per headand per employee were derived as a basis for estimating the respective growth inincomes and labour costs over the study period.Transport Operating Costs and Fares2.5.5 Operating costs were estimated for all classes of road vehicle based on the currentcharacteristics of the vehicle fleet in the Territory. Operating costs for publictransport operations were developed from data supplied by the public transportoperators and by Public Transport Planning Division of Transport Department.Projections of costs were based on the likely changes in future costs, particularlylabour costs discussed above. Indices of likely fare changes were projected based onchanges in operating costs and other factors.InternationalTraffic2.5.6 Projections of international traffic were required at all points of entry to the HongKong transport system. These comprised the airport, international ferry piers and theborder for passenger traffic, and the airport container port, public cargo workingareas and border for goods vehicle traffic. Projections were based on estimates ollikely traffic growth, but with a range of values adopted for the goods vehiclecross-border flows for which estimates were less certain.Investment Budgets2.5.7 Analyses were made of past investments in transport related to the growth of theeconomy as a guide to the likely future funding of transport projects. Final estimatesof available funding were based on guidelines provided by Government.Projects and Policies2.5.8 The Study compiled a list of all known transport construction projects. A divisionwas made into those in construction or otherwise firmly committed which could beassumed to be completed whatever the recommendations of CTS-2, and those inthe planning or concept phase which were required to be evaluated by the Study.The initial source of projects was the Territorial Development Strategy (IDS) seriesof work, but many other projects were suggested by other Government Departments,Projects agreed for evaluation by CTS-2 were costed with the help of HighwaysDepartment and the two rail corporations MTRC and KCRC,26
2.5.9 A literature review was made of potential transport policies for the management oftransport demand. A set of policies considered to have potential for application inHong Kong were agreed for testing by CTS-2.2.8 Analysis Evaluation of Transport Projects,and Policies2.6.1 The testing of transport projects and policies followed a clearly defined programme,with evaluations of results at each stage. The sequence of testing and the approachto evaluation are discussed below.Testing Programme2.6.2 A sequence of seven rounds of testing were conducted in developing the transportstrategy as described below.2.6.3 Committed Network Tests—Transport projections were made assuming completionof only those projects currently under construction or otherwise firmly committed,and with no change in current transport policies. Projections were made for thethree years 1991, 1 996 and 2001. These tests indicated the scale of likely problemsconfronting transport planners to the end of the century and provided the backgroundagainst which new projects and policies could be justified.2.6.4 Maximal Network Tests—Transport projections were made assuming constructionof a large number of transport projects, but assuming that current transport policieswere maintained. Five different transport network-configurations were investigated,all with the same highway plans but with different combinations of rail projects.Tests were made for the year 1996 only. These tests indicated the scope for resolvingfuture transport problems by the construction of new infrastructure only.2.6.5 Policy Tests—-Eight different policies for managing the growth of transport demandwere investigated, assuming no further construction of transport projects beyondthose already under construction or otherwise firmly committed. As with the MaximalNetwork tests, the policy tests were undertaken for the year 1 996 only. These testsindicated the scope for resolving future transport problems by new policy initiativesonly.2.6.6 Initial Strategy—Based on the results of the first three rounds of testing, an InitialStrategy was devised combining new transport projects and policies. Projectsselected for the strategy were compatible with estimates of the transport investmentbudget up to 2001. The strategy was tested and evaluated for the two years 1996and 2001, but with ail new projects included for both years. While the assumptionthat all new projects could be completed by 1996 was unrealistic, the results of thetests provided useful information of project priorities.2.6.7 Revised Strategy—Following the evaluation of the Initial Strategy, a RevisedStrategy was prepared selecting a realistic programme of transport projects forcompletion by 1996 and 2001. Testing was carried out for both these two years.2.6.8 Sensitivity Tests—A series of sensitivity tests were undertaken on the RevisedStrategy to assess the implications of;— Higher economic growth— Variations in population distribution.— Variations in cross-border goods vehicle flows.2.6.9 Final Strategy—A final set of tests were made for 1996 and 2001 incorporatingminor adjustments to the Revised Strategy based on the results of the sensitivitytests.Evaluation2.6.10 The transport projects and policies examined in each round of testing wereevaluated from several different viewpoints as discussed below:27
Page 2 and 3: THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONGLIBRARIE
Page 4 and 5: EPPrinted and Published by the Gove
Page 6 and 7: CONTENTSPage6. OF 966.1 Introductio
Page 8 and 9: Page3.1 Licensed Vehicles 1976-1988
Page 10 and 11: FIGURES_Page1.1 Special Character o
Page 12 and 13: Page1.1 Second Comprehensive Transp
Page 14 and 15: TRANSPORTPER UNIT OF GDPCars Per Th
Page 16 and 17: KCR Double Tracking &\ Electrificat
Page 18 and 19: 1.2 The Second Comprehensive Transp
Page 20 and 21: 1.2.17 The way in which these recla
Page 22 and 23: ANNEX1.1Terms of Reference(1) To pr
Page 24 and 25: 2.2.1 introduction2.1.1 This chapte
Page 26 and 27: 2.2: OF THEPROJECTS AND POLICIESFOR
Page 30 and 31: 2.6.11 Operational Evaluation—The
Page 32 and 33: 3.1GO OLicensed Vehicle Fleets (a]P
Page 34 and 35: Table 3.3 VEHICLE(Dollars per year)
Page 36 and 37: 3.2.7 The car and motorcycle fleet
Page 38 and 39: 3.2.14 The non-van goods vehicle fl
Page 40 and 41: 3.2.23 Use of Light Vans as Private
Page 42 and 43: 3.3 Road Usage and Road Constructio
Page 44 and 45: FIGURE 3.11:TRAFFIC IN URBAN HONG K
Page 46 and 47: FIGURE 3.14:TRAFFIC IN THE NEW TERR
Page 48 and 49: Table 3.6 CROSS HARBOUR TUNNEL TOLL
Page 50 and 51: 3.5 Public Transport Patronage3.5.1
Page 52 and 53: 3.5.4 The growth in rail transport
Page 54 and 55: taxi productivity. The average paid
Page 56 and 57: 4.4.1 introduction4.1.1 Demand for
Page 58 and 59: Table 4.2DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION
Page 60 and 61: AreaTable 4.4Hong Kong islandKowioo
Page 62 and 63: 4.2.14 An additional 425 000 jobs i
Page 64 and 65: 4.3(1986-2001)Growth Over 1988Perio
Page 66 and 67: included in the financial costs. Pe
Page 68 and 69: 4.5 International Traffic4.5.1 Proj
Page 70 and 71: Cross Border Rail Passenger Traffic
Page 72 and 73: Table 4.17IN(1971-1989)HighwayPrice
Page 74 and 75: contribution of Government equity t
Page 76 and 77: 5. FORECASTS OF THE TRANSPORT SCENE
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FIGURE 5.2:PROJECTED DAILY TRIP MAK
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FIGURE 5.3: 1986 GENERATIONS AND AT
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FIGURE 5.5: PERSON TRAVEL DEMAND(CO
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Table 5.4PROJECTIONS OF DAILY TRIP
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Table 5.5 SCHEDULED PUBLIC BY(thous
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• FANLING/SHEUNG SHUIRMA ON SHANH
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Cars and taxis 1.00Minibus/Special
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LEGEND V/C Ratio Range• 1.1 - 1.2
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•Vf'rLEGEND V/C Ratio Range> 1.1
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FIGURE 5.13:TRAFFIC SPEEDS BY ROAD
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6. OF6.1 Introduction6.1.1 This cha
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LEGENDMajor Committed Road ProjectK
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LEGENDCandidate Road ProjectKowloon
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A V/C ratio of 1.0 or less indicate
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Table 6.3 SUMMARY OF HIGHWAY PORJEC
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6.5.1 2 The traffic implications of
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6.5.27 it is estimated that traffic
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6.7 and Airport Tunnel6.7.1 The Hun
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6.9.5 Conclusions— This is likely
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6.4(1988 Prices)ProjectLocFinancial
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sufficient detail to permit compute
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LEGENDMTR £_EHC LRT(under vL} cons
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7.1Peak TramHong KongTramwaysKowloo
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MTR/KCR Interchange7.2.14 A key tra
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day, particularly in the peak hour.
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Impacts on Urban Development7.3.28
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7.4.2 The East Kowloon Line would s
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7.4.1 2 Both the financial return a
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7.5.17 Patronage and economic resul
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Rail Operations7.6.15 Two proposals
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passenger services. Also, while lig
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.S.Bi ne economic evaluation or tne
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Conclusions7.9.15 At the projected
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7.11.4 With an extension to Star Fe
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7.13.7 It is estimated that the LRT
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Conclusions7.14.13 Both harbour cro
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7.15.14 Financial support for the n
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FIGURE 8.1: PASSENGER TRANSPORT BY
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Railways8.2.6 Rail services began t
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Table 8.2PROJECTED DEMAND FOR SCHED
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FANLING/SHEUNG SHUIYUENLONGMA ON SH
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severe on the MTR island Line where
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8.4.10 The KCR main Sine is expecte
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Cross Harbour Bus Operations8.5.9 T
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8.7.3 In the New Territories, the r
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ail corridor is now operating at fu
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urban area, the short term means of
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(2) More vehicles are required to d
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are classified under Vehicle Owners
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9.5.5 Supplementary Licences—Thes
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9.5.19 Controls are required on bot
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Park and Hide9.6.4 This policy prom
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Alternative Scenarios for the Evalu
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9.7.18 Thus although the Centra! ec
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9.3 INNumber of vehs (thous)CarsTax
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Table 9.4ON(Increases in goods vehi
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9.11.3 The specific scheme chosen w
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Table 9.5(Similar to Scheme B inves
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traffic assessments. If the increas
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10 ON10.1 Introduction10.1.1 This c
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10.2.9 There are clearly some possi
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Railway Funding10.3.11 An expenditu
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Private Car Controls10.5.9 It is re
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c:,LEGEND V/C Ratio Range1.1 - 1.2>
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10.6.4 Several roads are projected
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o1991 Committed1996 Recommended Str
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operation and operator. Much depend
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ANNEX 10.1PROJECTIONS OF THE VEHICL
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ANNEX 10.4BY(thousand vehicles per
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TOC
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