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7.6.8 The other centre, comprising the two towns of Yuen Long and Tin Shui Wai, wasmuch less developed in 1986 with less than one third of the population of TuenMun. Future population depends on the pace of development of Tin Shui Wai whereconstruction started only recently. The central projections used by the Study assumeless than half the full development of Tin Shui Wai by 2001, giving a total populationfor the two towns of 26£LGQO, However, the full population potential of 425 000might be reached by 2001 if Government decided to concentrate resources ondevelopment there.Rail Passenger Projections7.6.9 The patronage of the urban rail link would be affected by a number of factors, themost important being:(1) the fares charged relative to fares by road transport(2) whether or not the Route 3 highway to Yuen Long is open with competing busservices(3) population growth in the NW New Territories7.6.10 A range of forecasts covering combinations of these factors is shown below,together with the selected central population forecast for each alternative route, allexpressed in thousands of passengers per day:1996 2001Yuen Long Line—Range 90—260 110—355Central 150—240 160—270Tuen Mun Line —Range 160—360 190—460Central 190—350 210—4007.6.11 The central forecast assumes the population projections as set out in the previoussection and that the new Route 3 highway linking Yuen Long to the urban areawould be completed, after 1996 but before 2001, as specified in the highwayinvestment programme recommended in Chapter 6. Route 3 bus services aretherefore assumed to be competing with rail after 1996, although the extent ofcompetition would be regulated by the current inter-modal policy. Therefore therange associated with the central forecasts has to do with the assumptions on fares.7.6.12 The high estimates of the central forecasts assume that the urban link would beoperated as an extension of the MTR Tsuen Wan Line with the fares on the urban linkintegrated with the fare structure of the MTR system. This would give rail a clearadvantage over road public transport for long distance trips, to the extent that the railterminus in the NWNT would attract trips from all parts of the NWNT and not justfrom the immediate area around the railhead. In the case of a Yuen Long rail line, forexample, travellers to the urban area from Tuen Mun would access the rail line atYuen Long.7.6.13 With higher rail fares, and certainly if the urban link fares were not integrated withthe main urban rail fare structure, the two population centres of the NWNT would bemore independent. In the above example, residents of Tuen Mun would be morelikely to travel to the urban area via a bus trip to Tsuen Wan rather than an LRT trip toYuen Long. This could lead to patronage at the lower end of the central forecaslgiven above.7.6.14 The urban rail link would also have a significant impact on rail volumes in the mainurban area, particularly the Nathan Road Corridor, boosting traffic by as much as tenpercent. The implications of this additional traffic in this currently overloadedcorridor are discussed further in the section 7.15 of this Chapter.133