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4.4.1 introduction4.1.1 Demand for movement is dependent upon where people live, where they work, howmuch they can spend on travel and how much travel costs. In addition, the situationof Hong Kong results in international traffic as the dominant flow on certain parts ofthe transport network. In a study of this nature, it is necessary to represent theseitems numerically and make a forecast of their values. This chapter discusses theprojections of these planning data under four broad headings:— Land Use— Economic Growth— Transport Costs— International TrafficProjections were made for the three forecast years for the Study: 1991, 1996 and2001.4.1.2 The planning of infrastructure to meet transport needs must take account ofavailable funds. The discussion of the likely budget for transport investment takes upthe last part of the chapter.4.1.3 The projections presented in this chapter are only estimates of what might occur ifcurrent trends and policies continue. These assumptions or projections wereadopted specifically for the purpose of the present Study, as they are basic inputs tothe model process. However, as will be seen later in this report, the majorrecommendations of the Study are not affected by minor variations in theseprojections. The impact on transport projects or policies of major variations isdiscussed in the relevant chapters. The Study has also been planned as the start of acontinuing transport planning process which is intended to re-assess transportprojects and policies at regular intervals in the light of actual developments andrevised projections.4.2 Land Use4.2.1 To be useful in forecasting traffic flows, land use needs to be quantified on a smalland localised basis. CTS-2 used a system of 242 traffic zones for its analyses. Fourrepresented cross-border traffic by road and rail at Lok Ma Chau, Man Kam To, ShaTau Kok, and Lo Wu. The remaining 238 internal zones covered the territory of HongKong, the structure reflecting administrative boundaries and areas of new reclamation.Most importantly, the zones delineated each area in terms of accessibility totransport facilities, with separate zones for each of the main public transportcatchment areas such as ferry piers and MTR/KCR stations. Hong Kong Island wasdivided into 59 zones, 78 were used for Kowloon, and the remaining 101 coveredthe New Territories including Tsuen Wan and the outlying islands.4.2.2 The distribution of population and employment are key parameters for forecastingtraffic demand; estimates of existing and projected population and employmentwere made for each of the 238 internal traffic zones. Domestic households andschool places were also estimated for each zone; these two stems are strongly relatedto population and in general follow a similar trend in distribution.Population and Households4.2.3 Territory control totals of population used for CTS-2 are shown in Table 4.1, andreflect a declining rate of population growth.54