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passenger services. Also, while light rail as defined in this report is clearly inadequate,full MTR services might give excess capacity. As noted earlier, detailed engineeringstudies could usefully explore train operations intermediate between full heavy railand light rail.7.7 MTR Line Extension to Kennedy Town and Green7.7.1 The original plans for the MTR Island Line included an extension westwards toKennedy Town from the current terminus of Sheung Wan. There is now thepossibility of extending the line further to the developments planned for the GreenIsland Reclamation. The CTS-2 Study looked at both possibilities.Catchment Area7.7.2 The catchment area for the Island Line Extension includes the districts of Sai YingPun and Kennedy Town. Population of these two districts was 150 000 in 1986 andlittle change is expected to 2001. Employment places in the area are expected todecline from 85 000 in 1986 to 66 000 in 2001. These population and employmentlevels alone would not be sufficient to justify the extension. Of critical importanceare the population levels assumed for the planned reclamation of Green Island andfor South-West Hong Kong Island.7.7.3 The population for a full development of a reclaimed Green Island was estimated at330000, but this scale of development could not take place for many years. Thecentral population forecast of the Study assumed development starting in the late1990s to reach 85 000 population by 2001 but more recent thinking is that GreenIsland will not be developed until after 2001.7.7.4 The central forecasts of the Study assume that population of South-west HongKong Island, Pok Fu Lam to Aberdeen, would grow by about 50% from 217 000 in1986 to 326 000 in 2001. Current thinking has de-emphasised development in thispart of Hong Kong Island; currently, a population of 241 000 is expected by 2001which is only an 11 % growth on 1986.Patronage Projections7.7.5 Traffic on the Island Line Extension with the central population estimates wasprojected as follows (in thousands of passengers per day):1996 2001West of Sheung Wan 210 290West of Kennedy Town 100 1907.7.6 The additional 80-90 000 passengers per day in 2001 are mainly attributable to theGreen Island developments. Not all the traffic west of Sheung Wan would beadditional MTR traffic; much would have been travelling to and from MTR by feederservice (bus, tram or PLB) without the extension project. These volumes are wellwithin the capacity of the MTR.Financial/Economic Evaluation7.7.7 The financial evaluation indicated that operating costs and depreciation of rollingstock could be covered from revenues for the Kennedy Town extension in 1996, andfor the Green Island extension in 2001. However, the surplus remaining fromrevenues would give LOW returns on the investment.7.7.8 The economic evaluation showed HIGH returns on investment with full time savingscounted but these reduced substantially for the case with one third of time savings.7.7.9 Both evaluations assumed the central population projection. If, as seems likely,population growth in Green Island and South-west Hong Kong Island is slower thanassumed, then the economic and financial returns would be reduced.136