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urban area, the short term means of controlling these problems will be throughfare adjustments. The Study recommends fare adjustments to achieve the following:(1) encourage travel in off-peak periods(2) discourage travel in peak periods(3) encourage passengers to use the new Eastern Harbour rail crossing instead ofthe existing crossing8.10.3 Public transport carried 87% of all person trips in 1986. This proportion is expectedto decrease slightly to 81 % in 2001 but the number of daily boardings will increasefrom 9.6 million to 13.1 million. It is clear that Hong Kong has to continue to rely onpublic transport to carry the bulk of person trips and the highly concentrateddevelopment pattern and limited road space do not permit extensive use of private orpersonalised form of transport.Rdfe of Public Transport Modes8.10.4x x Franchised buses are the single largest carrier of passengers with a daily passengerboardings of 4.0 million in 1986, which is expected to increase to 4.5 million in2001. Buses are an efficient road user, flexible in operation and able to provideservices at relatively low fares. They should therefore continue to be given priorityover other road users in the use of road space. Over the last ten years, KMB hasabsorbed the impact of the opening of the MTR and modernisation of the KCR, thechanging land use distribution in Kowloon and the New Territories, and, mostrecently, their operational restrictions in the North-west New Territories LRT TransitService Area. KMB now faces the prospect of competition from the opening offurther new rail lines as recommended by CTS-2. However, there is still expected tobe growth for KMB in routes to and within the New Territories. In particular, routesto the North-east New Territories are expected to benefit substantially from theopening of the Route 5 and Tate's Cairn tunnels. The other major franchised busoperator, CMB, are likely to be little affected by the recommended new rail lines.8.10.5 The rail operations of the MTR and the KCR provide high speed and high capacityoff-road transport services which avoid, and also help to reduce, the problems ofroad congestion. The other main rail operations of LRT and the Hongkong Tramwaysprovide partially segregated rail services and are expected to attract growingdemand. With the expansion of the rail network, rail is expected to continue to be thefastest growing mode of public transport, projected to increase from 2.2 million dailyjourneys in 1986 to 4.9 million by 2001.8.10.6 Ferries provide essential services to the outlying islands, and offer a useful andpopular alternative to other forms of public transport cross-harbour services.Infrastructure requirements of ferries are low, in contrast to road and rail, althoughthe cost of new ferries and piers can be high. Due to relatively low travel speeds,ferries are vulnerable to competition from cross-harbour bus and rail services, 'andare also subject to disruption during reclamation works. However, with the expectedcontinuing development of the harbour area, the demand for ferry services isexpected to increase from 0.3 million per'day in 1986 to 0.4 million per day by 2001.With the planned opening of the Eastern Harbour Crossing in 1989, and plans fornew road and rail links across the harbour for the mid-1990s, there is likely to be aneed to rationalise the route structure of the passenger ferries.8.10.7 Minibus services are expected to continue to provide a useful supplement to themass carriers. Although it is recommended that the fleet continue to be fixed at aconstant level, overall patronage is expected to increase slightly over the forecastperiod with the change from 14-seat to 16-seat vehicles.8.10.8 Taxis are a personalised form of public transport offering a speedy, comfortable anddirect service. They are, however, extravagant users of road space, tend to congregatein the congested areas where demand is highest, and make considerable demandson limited road space even when empty and cruising for passengers. It is recommendedthat taxi fares continue to be increased at regular intervals to ensure that thedemand for taxi services is kept in balance with the limited supply of taxis.168
9. FOR OF9.19.1.1 Earlier chapters identified the rapidly rising demand for ail kinds of transportservices—bus, rail, taxi, private car and goods transport. The underlying reason forthis is the dynamic growth of the Hong Kong economy, one of the fastest growingeconomies of the world. The growth of the economy generates the demand forgoods transport and this translates directly into increased goods vehicle activity,increasing affluence also results in a rise in personal trip-making; daily trips perperson have increased from an average of 1.3 per day in 1981 to 1.6 in 1988 and areexpected to increase to 1.9 trips per day by the end of the century.9.1.2 To accommodate growing demand for transport services, an extensive constructionprogramme has been identified for new highways (Chapter 6) and new railways(Chapter 7). Spending on this construction programme could approach $3 billionper year through the 1990s. The investment programme also recognises the realitiesof preparing for new construction, limits to the capacity of the construction industryto take on new transport infrastructure projects and in particular for the time requiredto prepare land reclamations needed for some of the major highway projectsrecommended. The recommended transport investment programme, therefore, representsthe practical limits that can be undertaken.9.1.3 While the recommended transport infrastructure development programme woulddramatically improve transport facilities during the 1990s, it is unlikely to be able toabsorb unrestrained growth in transport demand. This is simply illustrated by the factthat the fleet of cars and goods vehicles is currently growing at about 10% per year. Ifthis trend continued, there would be a more than threefold increase in the number ofthese vehicles on the road by the end of the century, from 280 000 in end 1988 to880 000 by 2001. However, the committed highway programme together with thehighways recommended by this Study would increase available road space by onlyabout 34% in the same period, from 3 650 to 4 900 lane-km, despite the huge scaleof the investment involved. Clearly, without suitable demand management measures,the growth in traffic demand could swamp both the existing and planned newinfrastructure.9.1.4 This chapter looks at possible options open to Government for managing the growthin transport demand and identifies some practical policies to follow. The subject ofthis chapter is the control of road traffic congestion; the need to manage demand forrail passenger services was discussed in Chapter 8.9.2 Need for Demand Management Policies9.2.1 Every vehicle that joins the traffic stream to some extent interferes with the progressof other vehicles already on the road. In light traffic, this interference is negligible; inheavy traffic, it is severe. Hence as more vehicles join the traffic stream, the speed oftraffic falls until it reaches crawling speed with frequent and intermittent stops—theclassic traffic jam.9.2.2 In the context of urban operations, lower traffic speeds mean higher costs for eachjourney made, for the following reasons:(1) Motor engines are less efficient at slower speeds, and consume more fuel. Forexample, dropping from 20 km/h to 15knn/h will cause an average car toconsume about 25% more fuel for every kilometre travelled. Stop-go conditionsare even less efficient, with the engine idling during stops and with constantspeeding up and slowing down.169
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THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONGLIBRARIE
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EPPrinted and Published by the Gove
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CONTENTSPage6. OF 966.1 Introductio
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Page3.1 Licensed Vehicles 1976-1988
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FIGURES_Page1.1 Special Character o
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Page1.1 Second Comprehensive Transp
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TRANSPORTPER UNIT OF GDPCars Per Th
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KCR Double Tracking &\ Electrificat
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1.2 The Second Comprehensive Transp
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1.2.17 The way in which these recla
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ANNEX1.1Terms of Reference(1) To pr
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2.2.1 introduction2.1.1 This chapte
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2.2: OF THEPROJECTS AND POLICIESFOR
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Transport Networks2.5.2 Description
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2.6.11 Operational Evaluation—The
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3.1GO OLicensed Vehicle Fleets (a]P
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Table 3.3 VEHICLE(Dollars per year)
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3.2.7 The car and motorcycle fleet
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3.2.14 The non-van goods vehicle fl
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3.2.23 Use of Light Vans as Private
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3.3 Road Usage and Road Constructio
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FIGURE 3.11:TRAFFIC IN URBAN HONG K
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FIGURE 3.14:TRAFFIC IN THE NEW TERR
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Table 3.6 CROSS HARBOUR TUNNEL TOLL
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3.5 Public Transport Patronage3.5.1
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3.5.4 The growth in rail transport
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taxi productivity. The average paid
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4.4.1 introduction4.1.1 Demand for
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Table 4.2DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION
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AreaTable 4.4Hong Kong islandKowioo
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4.2.14 An additional 425 000 jobs i
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4.3(1986-2001)Growth Over 1988Perio
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included in the financial costs. Pe
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4.5 International Traffic4.5.1 Proj
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Cross Border Rail Passenger Traffic
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Table 4.17IN(1971-1989)HighwayPrice
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contribution of Government equity t
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5. FORECASTS OF THE TRANSPORT SCENE
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FIGURE 5.2:PROJECTED DAILY TRIP MAK
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FIGURE 5.3: 1986 GENERATIONS AND AT
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FIGURE 5.5: PERSON TRAVEL DEMAND(CO
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Table 5.4PROJECTIONS OF DAILY TRIP
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Table 5.5 SCHEDULED PUBLIC BY(thous
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• FANLING/SHEUNG SHUIRMA ON SHANH
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Cars and taxis 1.00Minibus/Special
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LEGEND V/C Ratio Range• 1.1 - 1.2
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•Vf'rLEGEND V/C Ratio Range> 1.1
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FIGURE 5.13:TRAFFIC SPEEDS BY ROAD
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6. OF6.1 Introduction6.1.1 This cha
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LEGENDMajor Committed Road ProjectK
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LEGENDCandidate Road ProjectKowloon
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A V/C ratio of 1.0 or less indicate
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Table 6.3 SUMMARY OF HIGHWAY PORJEC
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6.5.1 2 The traffic implications of
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6.5.27 it is estimated that traffic
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6.7 and Airport Tunnel6.7.1 The Hun
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6.9.5 Conclusions— This is likely
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6.4(1988 Prices)ProjectLocFinancial
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sufficient detail to permit compute
Page 120 and 121: LEGENDMTR £_EHC LRT(under vL} cons
Page 122 and 123: 7.1Peak TramHong KongTramwaysKowloo
Page 124 and 125: MTR/KCR Interchange7.2.14 A key tra
Page 126 and 127: day, particularly in the peak hour.
Page 128 and 129: Impacts on Urban Development7.3.28
Page 130 and 131: 7.4.2 The East Kowloon Line would s
Page 132 and 133: 7.4.1 2 Both the financial return a
Page 134 and 135: 7.5.17 Patronage and economic resul
Page 136 and 137: Rail Operations7.6.15 Two proposals
Page 138 and 139: passenger services. Also, while lig
Page 140 and 141: .S.Bi ne economic evaluation or tne
Page 142 and 143: Conclusions7.9.15 At the projected
Page 144 and 145: 7.11.4 With an extension to Star Fe
Page 146 and 147: 7.13.7 It is estimated that the LRT
Page 148 and 149: Conclusions7.14.13 Both harbour cro
Page 150 and 151: 7.15.14 Financial support for the n
Page 152 and 153: FIGURE 8.1: PASSENGER TRANSPORT BY
Page 154 and 155: Railways8.2.6 Rail services began t
Page 156 and 157: Table 8.2PROJECTED DEMAND FOR SCHED
Page 158 and 159: FANLING/SHEUNG SHUIYUENLONGMA ON SH
Page 160 and 161: severe on the MTR island Line where
Page 162 and 163: 8.4.10 The KCR main Sine is expecte
Page 164 and 165: Cross Harbour Bus Operations8.5.9 T
Page 166 and 167: 8.7.3 In the New Territories, the r
Page 168 and 169: ail corridor is now operating at fu
Page 172 and 173: (2) More vehicles are required to d
Page 174 and 175: are classified under Vehicle Owners
Page 176 and 177: 9.5.5 Supplementary Licences—Thes
Page 178 and 179: 9.5.19 Controls are required on bot
Page 180 and 181: Park and Hide9.6.4 This policy prom
Page 182 and 183: Alternative Scenarios for the Evalu
Page 184 and 185: 9.7.18 Thus although the Centra! ec
Page 186 and 187: 9.3 INNumber of vehs (thous)CarsTax
Page 188 and 189: Table 9.4ON(Increases in goods vehi
Page 190 and 191: 9.11.3 The specific scheme chosen w
Page 192 and 193: Table 9.5(Similar to Scheme B inves
Page 194 and 195: traffic assessments. If the increas
Page 196 and 197: 10 ON10.1 Introduction10.1.1 This c
Page 198 and 199: 10.2.9 There are clearly some possi
Page 200 and 201: Railway Funding10.3.11 An expenditu
Page 202 and 203: Private Car Controls10.5.9 It is re
Page 204 and 205: c:,LEGEND V/C Ratio Range1.1 - 1.2>
Page 206 and 207: 10.6.4 Several roads are projected
Page 208 and 209: o1991 Committed1996 Recommended Str
Page 210 and 211: operation and operator. Much depend
Page 212 and 213: ANNEX 10.1PROJECTIONS OF THE VEHICL
Page 214 and 215: ANNEX 10.4BY(thousand vehicles per
Page 216 and 217: TOC
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