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7.1 2.2 Passenger volumes were projected as follows:1996 95 000 passengers per day2001 1090007.12.3 These volumes are not high and could be met by trains consisting of single 3-carEMU units operating on a 3 minute peak headway and 6 minute off-peak headway.There are no foreseeable problems of capacity on this line.7.12.4 In the absence of the rail line, public transport movements would be by busoperating along Route 5 which is due to be completed in 1989, There would be noproblems in accommodating the likely bus volumes for the passenger forecastsprojected here.7.12.5 Projected revenues would cover operating costs and depreciation of rolling stockcomfortably. Since construction costs are very low if the freight line is already inplace (passenger facilities are merely additions to a line constructed to serve freight),the operating surplus would give a HIGH return on investment the best of any railproject evaluated. The economic evaluation also confirms the high value of theproject.Conclusions7.12.6 If a freight line were to be built on the suggested alignment linking Sha Tin withKwai Fong, it would clearly make sense to provide for passenger services. However,benefits from passenger operations would not be sufficient to justify the entireconstruction cost of the line.7.13 Admiralty to Aberdeen Light Project7.13.1 A light rail transit (LRT) line has been proposed for Hong Kong Island to linkAdmiralty MTR station in Central District to the south side of the Island at Aberdeen.The characteristics of the scheme discussed below were preliminary estimatesdeveloped during a pre-feasibility study. Further studies are currently underway.Catchment Area7.13.2 The Aberdeen LRT would directly serve the communities of Aberdeen and the twolarge housing estates of Wah Fu and Chi Fu to the west of Aberdeen. Via feederservices, it could also serve Ap Lei Chau, to the south of Aberdeen, and theBaguio/Pokfulam area.7.13.3 The population of this area was around 217000 in 1986. The central populationestimate of the Study assumed new development in the area increasing thepopulation to 326 000 population by 2001.Patronage Projections7.13.4 Maximum line loadings of 75 000 passengers per day by 1996 and 90 000 by 2001were projected based on the initial plans for the route. This represents only about20%-25% of the total demand for public transport to and from the catchment area.7.13.5 Demand is comparatively low principally because bus competition is very strong,with direct routes through the Aberdeen tunnel penetrating to most parts of theNorth shore of Hong Kong Island and also across the harbour. The rail fare is higherthan for bus even for direct connection to Admiralty. To go beyond Admiraltyrequires an additional fare on a new mode. For example, the fares to North Point orDiamond Hill by combined LRT and MTR would be nearly double the comparablebus fares.7.13.6 It can be noted that the line picks up half of the projected patronage from thehousing developments to the west of Aberdeen. Therefore projected passengervolumes would be affected by the changes in population projections for thesouthwest of Hong Kong Island discussed above.143