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.S.Bi ne economic evaluation or tne central section, TaKing into accouni TUII savings incommunity resources, shows a LOW return on investment by 1996 and MEDIUM by2001, indicating economic feasibility by that date. Passenger time savings constitutejust over half the economic benefits, hence the more conservative evaluation takingjust one third of estimated passenger time savings reduces the economic returnsto LOW, except for the Aberdeen to Centra! section for 2001 which remains atMEDIUM.7.8.9 In economic terms, the Sha Tin extension is competing against the KCR main line ina well-provided corridor; the Aberdeen extension in contrast provides a more directroute from Aberdeen to Central than can be provided by road, and transforms theconnections between Aberdeen and all other points of the Territory, thus accountingfor the rather better economic performance.Conclusions7.8.10 The East Kowloon Line from Sha Tin to Aberdeen would attract substantial volumesof traffic, in this respect performing better in 1996 than the Island Line in 1986.7.8.11 The economic evaluation indicates feasibility, even by 1996, but would not supporta high priority by that year. The financial evaluation shows that the line would requiresubstantial financial support. It must be concluded that the East Kowloon Line is soexpensive, at about $20 billion with rolling stock, that the economic case for the lineis marginal. If the line is to be recommended, more compelling arguments in itsfavour must be established. These would depend on the scale and direction ofurban development in the years to come. Two points can be established concerningthis aspect7.8.12 First, the reclamation studies of Central and Wan Chai indicate the need for railaccess if that reclamation is to be built to the densities currently prevailing in theexisting Central and Wan Chai Districts. It is possible that a re-aligned East KowloonLine might serve this purpose.7.8.13 Secondly, there is the possibility of relaxing building height restrictions in this areaif the airport were to be moved from Kai Tak. At higher densities, patronageprojections and therefore the economic benefits of the East Kowloon Line, wouldhave to be revised upwards.7.8.14 The importance of the East Kowloon Line evaluation is that it demonstrates the valueof a major new urban rail link for the late 1990s. Detailed planning must reconsiderthe alignment to take account of major new urban developments now in planning.7.9 Ma On Shan Light Rail Line7.9.1 A rail line has been proposed in various development studies for the new town of MaOn Shan, located to the North East of Sha Tin. The current proposal is for a light railline from Ma On Shan to Tai Wai, just south of Sha Tin, where the line wouldterminate in an interchange with the KCR main line. The line would pass through theeastern side of Sha Tin; an alignment for a light rail line has been reserved. While aheavy rail alternative was at one time considered, it is now understood that the railreserve currently allocated would not be adequate.7.9.2 The Ma On Shan LRT is envisaged as a regional system like that recently opened inthe NW New Territories, with frequent stops (one every 500 metres) and relativelyslow average journey speeds. However, unlike the NW New Territories LRT, thesystem would be mostly grade separated with only three ground level road crossingsin Ma On Shan. Moreover, the proposal considered in CTS-2 is for a single linerather than a network of routes as in.the NW New Territories.138