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5. FORECASTS OF THE TRANSPORT SCENE5.15.1.15.25.2.1introductionThis chapter presents projections of the future demand for transport assuming thecentral estimates of population, employment and economic growth described inChapter 4, completion of only those transport projects in construction or firmlycommitted (see Chapters 6 and 7), and the continuation of current transportpolicies. Comparisons are made with the base year for transport modelling of 1 986.The projections indicate the scale of transport problems facing the Territory in futureyears, taking into account these assumptions, and provide the basis for justifying thenew projects and policies discussed in subsequent chapters of this report.Growth in the Vehicle FleetProjections of the vehicle fleet to 2001 are shown in Table 5.1 and illustrated for cars(including motorcycies) and goods vehicles in Figure 5.1 against a background ofhistorical development. Figure 5.1 also shows the likely impact of higher economicgrowth rates on the size of the vehicle fleet.Vehicle Type 1Table 5.1Car and MotorcycleGoods VehicleTaxiSpecial Purpose BusMinibusFranchised BusPROJECTIONS OF THE VEHICLE FLEET(thousands)1986 214484169441991200117171144Total Vehicles261 353 476 6101 For CTS-2 modelling purposes, some licensed cars reclassified as either goods vehicle or special purpose bus.2 Observed, subject to note 1 .19962801541913462007363202211347FIGURE 5.1:PROJECTIONS OF CARS AND GOODS VEHICLESThousands600Private CarCar (High Growth)Goods VehicleGoods (High Growth)1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001Committed Projects, No Change In PolicyCar includes Motorcycles74