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7.5.17 Patronage and economic results depend critically on the population assumed inJunk Bay. At the relatively modest level of development assumed by the Study for1996, about one third of the ful! development of Junk Bay, the project would beworthwhile from the community point of view. This would provide substantialsavings in travel time and alternative transport operating costs. Passenger revenuescould probably cover operating costs at that population level and financial returnswould build up rapidly with increasing population.7.5.18 There is a clear case for planning the extension of the MTR to Junk Bay inconjunction with the development of the new town. This would undoubtedlyincrease the attractiveness of the new town and ensure that population build up israpid, thus contributing to the success of both the town as a whole and the MTRextension project in particular. The earlier the MTR extension is established as adefinite project, the easier it will be to plan other transport services to complement,rather than compete with, the MTR line.Worthwest New Territories Urban Link7.6.1 The Northwest New Territories (NWNT), with the existing towns of Tuen Mun andYuen Long and the developing town of Tin Shus Wai, is the largest populated regionof the Territory not yet linked to the main urban area by rail. The region is now servedinternally by the recently opened LRT but all external public transport services areprovided by ferry, bus, minibus and taxi. CTS-2 examined the case for constructingan urban rail link between the existing urban rail network and the new LRT system.Alternative Routes7.6.2 Four alternative routes have been proposed for the NWNT Urban Link, as shownpreviously in Figure 7.3. Two are connections from the main KCR line, one fromFanling and the other from Tai Po, both connecting to the LRT terminus at YuenLong East. The other two connect from the MTR terminus at Tsuen Wan, onethrough the Tai Lam Country Park also to Yuen Long East as before and the otheralong the coast to Tuen Mun.7.6.3 The KCR main line connection from Fanling to Yuen Long was rejected byconsultants at an early stage of the the 1 987 LRT Extensions Studies (Urban Links)conducted for KCR, on the grounds of insufficient patronage. Little has changed inTerritory development projections since then and so this link was not re-examined inCTS-2.7.6.4 The other KCR main line connection from Tai Po was examined in CTS-2, but trafficprojections indicated substantially lower patronage than the two alternatives fromTsuen Wan. It was concluded that the Tai Po to Yuen Long route did not reallyfunction as an urban link. While this option would have attractions financially forthe KCRC (essentially by linking up the two KCRC-operated rail systems), it wasconcluded in this Study that it should be dropped from further consideration since itwould serve such a limited segment of the NW New Territories transport market.7.6.5 Therefore, the main analysis of CTS-2 concentrated on the two alternative routesfrom Tsuen Wan, one to Tuen Mun and the other to Yuen Long.Catchment Area7.6.6 The population of the NW New Territories is concentrated in the two candidatetermini for the rail urban link: Tuen Mun and Yuen Long/Tin Shui Wai.7.6.7 Tuen Mun was already a well developed towodnJLiS^^population. The Study population projections show an increase to about 470 000population by 2001. This includes the development of Tuen Mun EastT'thTsprojected growth would put the population of the Tuen Mun area approaching thecurrently planned population capacity of 540 000.132