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10.6.4 Several roads are projected to exceed a V/C ratio of 1,0 by 2001, despite the newhighways and traffic growth management policies of the recommended transportstrategy. Some highways are projected to exceed a V/C of 1.2; in particular, ToloHighway and Tas Po Road (which would additionally be affected if cross-bordertraffic increases faster than expected), the Peak and Mid-levels region of Hong KongIsland, and sections of Pokfulann Road. Given the uncertainties attached to theprojected developments, no specific action in the areas is recommended at thepresent time, but traffic growth should be monitored by region as a basis for futureaction.10.6.5 It should also be noted that over half of the existing roads are now reaching the endof their design life and will require rehabilitation or re-construction in the next 10-15years. Also, continuing economic growth and development will lead to increasingdemand for utility services, and this often means additional pipes and cables to belaid under the road bed. These essential works, together with works associated withnew highway construction, will inevitably lead to some additional localised andshort term congestion problems.10.6.6 Figures 10.3 and 10.4 show peak speeds for local and trunk roads by area which alsocompared with the 2001- committed scenario. In each case, speeds will deterioratefrom 1986 levels in the 2001 committed situation, but are restored to around the1986 levels by the recommended strategy.Projected Rail Traffic10.6.7 Figure 10.5 shows the projected passenger demand for the Territory urban railsystem, including the three rail projects recommended for construction in the early1990s: the Junk Bay extension, the Northwest New Territories urban link (assumedhere to terminate in Yuen Long) and the Yau Ma Tei to Fortress cross-harbour link.Even with the recommended rail projects, the Nathan Road Corridor of the MTR isexpected to be heavily patronised, and fare incentives are recommended to spreadthe peak hour demand and to encourage maximum use of the Eastern HarbourCrossing. It is expected that the KCR will have adequate capacity to carry theprojected loads, initially by increasing train length up to the maximum of 12 cars pertrain, and later by upgrading the signalling system to permit closer train headways inthe peak hour. Improvements will also be necessary at KCR stations to improvepassenger handling facilities.10.7 Implications of a Relocated Airport10.7.1 Based on the findings of the various airport studies underway, including the Portand Airport Development Strategy (PADS), Government is expected to makedecisions by the end of 1989 on whether or not to build a replacement airport.Sensitivity tests were undertaken in CTS-2 for the year 2001 in order to assess theimpact of a new airport on the recommended transport strategy.10.7.2 CTS-2 looked at just two alternatives for the year 2001, one assuming that theairport would be relocated to Chek Lap Kok on the north side of Lantau Island and asecond with the airport relocated to reclaimed land in the Western Harbour. In eachcase, new port facilities on Lantau Island were included. It was assumed that anexpressway would connect the new airport and port facilities to the existingtransport system. For the Lantau site, the connection was from North Lantau to aninterchange with Route 3 on Tsing Yi Island; for the Harbour site, the connectionwas to Route 7 on Hong Kong Island in the vicinity of Telegraph Bay.10.7.3 No rail connections to the airport were assumed for 2001; the timing of such a linkwould depend on the build-up of new population and employment at the newairport site.204