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Rail Operations7.6.15 Two proposals have been made for operating the NWNT urban rail link. One wouldbe as an extension of the MTR Tsuen Wan Line with standard 8-car trains operatingfrom Central on Hong Kong Island via Tsuen Wan to a terminus at either Yuen Longor Tuen Mun. The alternative operation proposed is for a separate light rail shuttlebetween the Tsuen Wan MTR station and the Yuen Long or Tuen Mun terminus,using 4-car trains made up of similar cars to those used on the LRT System.7.6.16 From the point of view of the user, there would be little to choose between the twoalternatives. The light rail shuttle would operate more frequently but would require atransfer between trains at Tsuen Wan. The less frequent MTR alternative wouldoffer through services all the way from the North West NT to Central District onHong Kong Island. However, there would be significant differences in costs andcapacities, as discussed earlier.7.6.17 Choice of operation depends on the expected level of patronage. At the higherpatronage levels, associated with the lower fares integrated with the main urban arearail fare structure, volumes would be beyond the capacity of a light rail operation soheavy rail would be required, similar to MTR or the existing KCR main line services.With lower patronage associated with higher fares, light rail would have adequatecapacity.7.6.18 The choice, then, comes down to a mass transit carrier with relatively low faresthoroughly integrating the NW New Territories into the transport system of HongKong, or a more restricted system offering a comfortable service to a smaller andmore affluent section of the external travel market of the TSA.Alternatives to Rail7.6.19 If the NWNT urban rail link is not built, the NW New Territories would continue todepend primarily on road based public transport services; buses, minibuses andtaxis, as well as the private car.7.6.20 The projected volumes of passengers to and from the North West New Territoriescould be handled adequately by road-based public transport services in the absenceof rail. As at present, most passengers would be carried.in high capacity expressbuses travelling between transport interchanges in the NWNT and the urban area,principally the MTR station in Tsuen Wan. Main road capacity is certainly adequateto carry the number of buses required; however, there would be problems inproviding bus terminals for the projected services.7.6.21 Therefore, the case for rail is that it could provide more attractive and efficientservices than bus. The latter requires loading and unloading facilities enroute andalso suitable terminals for which it would be difficult to provide.F.inanciall Economic Evaluation7.6.22 The financial evaluation shows that passenger fare revenues from the NWNTUrban Rail Link (for both alternative routes) would cover operating costs and thedepreciation of rolling stock, either as a heavy rail operation or as a light rail shuttle.The financial return on the investment in the line is classed at least as MEDIUM forall combinations of route, and as HIGH for the Yuen Long heavy rail alternative by2001 assuming full development at Tin Shui Wai.7.6.23 The economic evaluation showed good returns; HIGH for both the heavy rail andthe light rail alternatives with full time savings included, but down to MEDIUM withsome combinations with only one third of time savings. These results stronglyindicate the value of the project to the community.7.6.24 In comparison with the Yuen Long route, the Tuen Mun alternative gave highereconomic benefits approximately in proportion to the higher construction costs,therefore generating similar economic returns.134