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4.2.14 An additional 425 000 jobs in the Territory are projected between 1986 and 2001.Over the same period, the main urban area of Kowioon is projected to lose some155000 jobs as population and factories move out. The rest of the Territory isprojected to gain some 580 000 new jobs in the 15 years from 1986 to 2001; theseare expected to split about evenly between the new towns in the New Territories andHong Kong Island. The new employment locations in the urban areas are mostly onthe north shore of Hong Kong Island, including 198 000 in Wan Chai, Central andWestern and 41 000 new jobs in Yau Ma Tei in Kowioon.4.3 Economic Growth4.3.1 The rate of economic growth has important implications for transport planning,directly influencing the growth in demand for both goods and passenger transport.The impact of economic growth on passenger transport is complex but it can belinked to growth in persona! incomes. Higher personal incomes generally result inincreased travel demands. However they also increase labour costs and consequentlyvehicle operating costs and public transport fare levels, thus tending to dampen thegrowth in demand by making travel more expensive. Higher incomes also increasethe demand for car ownership, and awareness of the cost of time wasted throughunreliable public transport or traffic congestion. The rate of economic growth alsoaffects the funds likely to be available for investment in transport facilities.4.3.2 Economic growth is measured by the change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).This tends to be a cyclical phenomenon, as shown by the graphs in Figures 4.4 and4.5, which indicate the growth of GDP and GDP per capita, since the early 1960s.Growth is shown in real terms, eliminating the changes due to inflation, and athree-year moving average was used to smooth out annual fiuctations and show theoverall trend. Annual growth over the period averaged 8.8% per year, and per capitagrowth averaged 6.4% per year.FIGURE 4.4:ANNUALGrowth Per14%12%10%/\^3-year8%6%1962-19884%2%0%62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88Real Growth In Constant Prices60