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severe on the MTR island Line where 26% of the daily westbound passenger volumein the Wan Chai and Causeway Bay section occurs in this same one hour period. TheKCR experiences the same problem with 22% of the daily southbound volumemoving in the morning peak hour. In.comparison, peak one-way flows on busesgenerally do not exceed 15% of the daily volume. This sharp peaking on the railsystemjs wasteful of equipment with many trains required for only a short period ofthe day/8.3.11 /Providing extra rail capacity is one potential solution to the rail peak houroverloading problem, but it is an expensive one. A better approach to the problem isto try and spread the peak demand over a longer period. This can be done byadjusting fares to make off-peak hour reductions. It can be noted that provision ofrolling stock which is only required for a short peak period is expensive, and is anexpense which is ultimately borne by the passengers in higher fares. The MTRCintroduced off-peak fare reductions in 1988; the results were mixed but they didappear to control the growth of peak demands. This Study recommends further/neasures of this type to positively encourage passengers to avoid the peak periods.8.3.12 { Measures to promote the staggering of working hours would also be of help. These"are discussed in Chapter 9.Another more fundamental approach would be to actively encourage decentralisationof_the Central Business District functions to new town areas rather Than toconcentrate such "activities in Central, Wan Chai and Tsim Sha. Tsui. An alternativeto induce the development of commercial centres around selected transport snter-- changes throughout the urban area should be considered and promoted.)8.4 Rail OperationsMass Transit Railway (MTR)8.4.1 The projections of rail traffic presented in Table 8.4 assume completion of theEastern Harbour Crossing MTR extension, due to open in 1989, and three railprojects recommended by CTS-2 for construction in the early 1990s:MTR extension to Junk BayNorth-west NT urban rail link: Tsuen Wan to Yuen Long/Tuen MunRail cross-harbour link: Yau Ma Tei to FortressDetails of the evaluation of new passenger rail lines and why these three projectswere selected can be found in Chapter 7.8.4.2 • There is little doubt that the rail line to Junk Bay would be an extension to the MTR.For the other two links, decisions have yet been taken on operator; they will dependon the more detailed operational and engineering studies to be completed afterCTS-2. However, for the purposes of projecting traffic volumes, these links were allassumed to be operated by the MTRC.8.4.3 Projected traffic growth on MTR is high with a 71% growth over the ten years from1986 to 1996 to reach 2.62 million passengers per day. In the absence of the threenew extensions, projected 1996 volumes are reduced to 2.26 million passengersdaily, a growth of 48% from 1986. However, without additional capacity providedby the new cross-harbour link, limited capacity in the Nathan Road corridor wouldprobably restrict growth.8.4.4 The patronage forecast for MTR without new rail lines is slightly lower than the mostrecent trends indicated for MTR growth; this can be attributed to several reasons:(1) Over the last few years, the MTR has benefited from the strong growth in theeconomy; future economic growth is assumed to remain strong but would bemore moderate than in the last few years.(2) The land use assumptions indicate a decline in land use activity of more than15% between 1986 and 1996 in urban Kowloon; this would have a directimpact on traffic volumes.158