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8.7.3 In the New Territories, the red PLBs serving trunk routes would lose traffic upon theconstruction of new rail lines. GMBs in this area are operating generally shorterroutes and would be less affected by new rail lines; they are expected to gain trafficfrom population growth.8.7.4 Both types of minibus are expected to lose traffic in urban Kowloon but, because theGMBs often have little competition, their patronage is likely to suffer less. Both redPLBs and GMBs are projected to gain patronage on Hong Kong Island due toincreases in jobs and population; GMBs show the biggest gains in patronage.8.7.5 Overall GMBs are expected to carry half the minibus patronage by 1996, comparedwith about 40% in 1986.8.8 Won-Scheduled Public TransportTaxis8.8.1 Taxis are used as an alternative to private cars as a personalised form of publictransport. They are the predominate mode of public transport operating through thenight; 18% of taxi travel occurs between the hours of 10 pm and 6 am, and a further16% in the hours between 7 pm and 10 pm. Taxis currently form about 25% of thetraffic stream overall, but in the central part of the urban area the proportionincreases to between 35% and 40%. In some locations, such as Wyndham St inCentral and Waterloo Rd in Kowloon, taxis form as much as 50% to 60% of the trafficstream.8.8.2 The rapid rise in the numbers and usage of taxis in the early 1980s (9% per year to1986) can be at least partly attributable to the decline in taxi fares when measured inconstant prices. In order to contain the growth of taxi travel, it is recommended (seeChapter 9) that the present quotas of not more than 200 new urban licences and100 New Territories licences be continued; in this case, the number of taxis inoperation may increase from 16 400 in 1986 to 20 900 by 2001. Taxi fare adjustmentsare also recommended as essential to keep demand for taxis in line with the numberof taxis permitted by the quotas.8.8.3 There is pressure from the operators to raise fares due to rising costs of taxi servicesand the highly labour intensive nature of this trade points to further cost increases inthe future. Thus fares can be allowed to rise naturally to cover costs, or further fareincreases can be induced by imposing cost increases on the taxi trade using fiscalmeasures (see Chapter 9). A sensible policy would be to allow regular real increasesin fares, rather than a dramatic increase in one step.8.8.4 Projected trip patterns for taxis reflects the assumed changes in land use. Thenumber of taxi trips on the north shore of Hong Kong Island is forecast to increase by10% from 1986 to 1996, while decreasing by 15% in urban Kowloon, following theexpected decline of employment there. A growth of more than 50% is forecast for theNew Territories associated with the projected large increase in population.8.8.5 New Territories Taxis—The system of New Territories taxi licences, with the vehiclescharging lower fares, was set up in 1976 to replace "Pak Pass" which were operatingin rural communities not served by scheduled public transport. It ensured that therewas a supply of taxis to serve travel demands in what was a lower income area whichwas not as well served as the urban area by the franchised public transport services.The New Territories is one of the most rapidly changing areas in Hong Kong; by1996 the number of people and jobs in the area served by the restricted taxis is likelyto have increased fourfold compared with when the system was set up. The area istaking on the characteristics of the rest of the Territory, both in terms of incomelevels, the demand for travel and the provision of franchised services.8.8.6 The urban taxis also operate in the New Territories and currently carry about half thetaxi demand there; by 1996 the share of travel taken by the rural taxis could declineto about 35%. As many of the initial reasons for the separate class would havedisappeared, it would seem appropriate at that stage to review the need for164