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severe on the MTR island Line where 26% of the daily westbound passenger volumein the Wan Chai and Causeway Bay section occurs in this same one hour period. TheKCR experiences the same problem with 22% of the daily southbound volumemoving in the morning peak hour. In.comparison, peak one-way flows on busesgenerally do not exceed 15% of the daily volume. This sharp peaking on the railsystemjs wasteful of equipment with many trains required for only a short period ofthe day/8.3.11 /Providing extra rail capacity is one potential solution to the rail peak houroverloading problem, but it is an expensive one. A better approach to the problem isto try and spread the peak demand over a longer period. This can be done byadjusting fares to make off-peak hour reductions. It can be noted that provision ofrolling stock which is only required for a short peak period is expensive, and is anexpense which is ultimately borne by the passengers in higher fares. The MTRCintroduced off-peak fare reductions in 1988; the results were mixed but they didappear to control the growth of peak demands. This Study recommends further/neasures of this type to positively encourage passengers to avoid the peak periods.8.3.12 { Measures to promote the staggering of working hours would also be of help. These"are discussed in Chapter 9.Another more fundamental approach would be to actively encourage decentralisationof_the Central Business District functions to new town areas rather Than toconcentrate such "activities in Central, Wan Chai and Tsim Sha. Tsui. An alternativeto induce the development of commercial centres around selected transport snter-- changes throughout the urban area should be considered and promoted.)8.4 Rail OperationsMass Transit Railway (MTR)8.4.1 The projections of rail traffic presented in Table 8.4 assume completion of theEastern Harbour Crossing MTR extension, due to open in 1989, and three railprojects recommended by CTS-2 for construction in the early 1990s:MTR extension to Junk BayNorth-west NT urban rail link: Tsuen Wan to Yuen Long/Tuen MunRail cross-harbour link: Yau Ma Tei to FortressDetails of the evaluation of new passenger rail lines and why these three projectswere selected can be found in Chapter 7.8.4.2 • There is little doubt that the rail line to Junk Bay would be an extension to the MTR.For the other two links, decisions have yet been taken on operator; they will dependon the more detailed operational and engineering studies to be completed afterCTS-2. However, for the purposes of projecting traffic volumes, these links were allassumed to be operated by the MTRC.8.4.3 Projected traffic growth on MTR is high with a 71% growth over the ten years from1986 to 1996 to reach 2.62 million passengers per day. In the absence of the threenew extensions, projected 1996 volumes are reduced to 2.26 million passengersdaily, a growth of 48% from 1986. However, without additional capacity providedby the new cross-harbour link, limited capacity in the Nathan Road corridor wouldprobably restrict growth.8.4.4 The patronage forecast for MTR without new rail lines is slightly lower than the mostrecent trends indicated for MTR growth; this can be attributed to several reasons:(1) Over the last few years, the MTR has benefited from the strong growth in theeconomy; future economic growth is assumed to remain strong but would bemore moderate than in the last few years.(2) The land use assumptions indicate a decline in land use activity of more than15% between 1986 and 1996 in urban Kowloon; this would have a directimpact on traffic volumes.158
(3) The completion of several highway projects now under construction; in particular,the Eastern Harbour Crossing, Tate's Cairn tunnel and Route 5 betweenSha Tin and Tsuen Wan, should enable some journeys to be made more directlyby bus; this competition will reduce MTR growth.8.4.5 • Capacity constraints at two locations will influence the future traffic growth on the'*MTR: the Nathan Road Corridor and the Kowloon Tong interchange with the KCELThe Kowloon Tong interchange was discussed in Chapter 7. The Nathan RoadCorridor problem is discussed further in the next paragraphs.8.4.6 Nathan Road Corridor—This section of the MTR from Mongkok to Tsim Sha Tsui isalready running at full capacity in the morning peak hour. It is expected that theopening of the Eastern Harbour Crossing MTR extension in 1989 will relieve thiscorridor, but with further growth is likely to reach capacity again by the early 1990s.Construction of a new cross-harbour rail link, such as the Yau Ma Tes to Fortress linkdiscussed in Chapter 7, would provide additional relief but this might not becompleted before mid 1990s. The short term solution to managing demand,therefore, lies with the fare policy adopted. Two possibilities are available:(1) Discounts to encourage more passengers to travel before or after the peak, asdiscussed earlier in this Chapter.(2) Fare incentives to encourage use of the Eastern Harbour Crossing to reachCentral and Wan Chai from Kowloon. Passenger interchange at Quarry BayStation between the Island Line and the new Eastern Harbour Crossing line willbe via a passageway connecting the platforms. By installing ticket barriers inthis passageway, it should be possible to introduce a fare discount for users ofthe Eastern Harbour Crossing.8.4.7 Much depends on the changes in travel patterns that actually take place after theopening of the Eastern Harbour Crossing. It is also possible that the improvement ofbus accessibility to,the urban area following the opening of Tate's Cairn tunnel willalso help to relieve the rail passenger loads in the Nathan Road Corridor.Kowloon-Canton Railway (KCR)8.4.8 Traffic on the KCR is projected to double between 1986 and 1996. The increase intraffic is attributed to population developments planned for the KCR corridor andgrowth of international traffic. The composition of the KCR traffic is shown in Table8.5 below, classified by type of movement.Table 8.5OF KCR TRAFFIC(passenger volumes in thousands)Movement 1986 1996 GrowthInternational traffic 52 108 108%Internal New Territories " 39 163 318%Internal Kowloon Urban 15 22 47%Urban Kowloon to NT 252 409 62%Total 358 702 96%8.4.9 The main movement that served by KCR is between the North-east New Territoriesand the urban area. This is forecast to remain the largest class of traffic, although theopening of the Tate's Cairn and Route 5 highway tunnels will provide opportunitiesfor particular bus services which should moderate rail growth. Cross border passengersform a significant part of the KCR traffic stream, doubling in volumebetween 1986 and 1996. The fastest growing traffic group is internal traffic withinthe New Territories, where KCR provides a direct and fast link between Sha Tin, TaiPo, Fanling and Sheung Shut.159
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THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONGLIBRARIE
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EPPrinted and Published by the Gove
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CONTENTSPage6. OF 966.1 Introductio
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Page3.1 Licensed Vehicles 1976-1988
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FIGURES_Page1.1 Special Character o
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Page1.1 Second Comprehensive Transp
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TRANSPORTPER UNIT OF GDPCars Per Th
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KCR Double Tracking &\ Electrificat
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1.2 The Second Comprehensive Transp
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1.2.17 The way in which these recla
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ANNEX1.1Terms of Reference(1) To pr
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2.2.1 introduction2.1.1 This chapte
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2.2: OF THEPROJECTS AND POLICIESFOR
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Transport Networks2.5.2 Description
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2.6.11 Operational Evaluation—The
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3.1GO OLicensed Vehicle Fleets (a]P
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Table 3.3 VEHICLE(Dollars per year)
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3.2.7 The car and motorcycle fleet
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3.2.14 The non-van goods vehicle fl
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3.2.23 Use of Light Vans as Private
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3.3 Road Usage and Road Constructio
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FIGURE 3.11:TRAFFIC IN URBAN HONG K
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FIGURE 3.14:TRAFFIC IN THE NEW TERR
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Table 3.6 CROSS HARBOUR TUNNEL TOLL
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3.5 Public Transport Patronage3.5.1
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3.5.4 The growth in rail transport
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taxi productivity. The average paid
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4.4.1 introduction4.1.1 Demand for
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Table 4.2DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION
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AreaTable 4.4Hong Kong islandKowioo
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4.2.14 An additional 425 000 jobs i
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4.3(1986-2001)Growth Over 1988Perio
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included in the financial costs. Pe
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4.5 International Traffic4.5.1 Proj
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Cross Border Rail Passenger Traffic
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Table 4.17IN(1971-1989)HighwayPrice
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contribution of Government equity t
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5. FORECASTS OF THE TRANSPORT SCENE
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FIGURE 5.2:PROJECTED DAILY TRIP MAK
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FIGURE 5.3: 1986 GENERATIONS AND AT
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FIGURE 5.5: PERSON TRAVEL DEMAND(CO
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Table 5.4PROJECTIONS OF DAILY TRIP
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Table 5.5 SCHEDULED PUBLIC BY(thous
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• FANLING/SHEUNG SHUIRMA ON SHANH
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Cars and taxis 1.00Minibus/Special
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LEGEND V/C Ratio Range• 1.1 - 1.2
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•Vf'rLEGEND V/C Ratio Range> 1.1
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FIGURE 5.13:TRAFFIC SPEEDS BY ROAD
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6. OF6.1 Introduction6.1.1 This cha
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LEGENDMajor Committed Road ProjectK
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LEGENDCandidate Road ProjectKowloon
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A V/C ratio of 1.0 or less indicate
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Table 6.3 SUMMARY OF HIGHWAY PORJEC
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6.5.1 2 The traffic implications of
Page 110 and 111: 6.5.27 it is estimated that traffic
Page 112 and 113: 6.7 and Airport Tunnel6.7.1 The Hun
Page 114 and 115: 6.9.5 Conclusions— This is likely
Page 116 and 117: 6.4(1988 Prices)ProjectLocFinancial
Page 118 and 119: sufficient detail to permit compute
Page 120 and 121: LEGENDMTR £_EHC LRT(under vL} cons
Page 122 and 123: 7.1Peak TramHong KongTramwaysKowloo
Page 124 and 125: MTR/KCR Interchange7.2.14 A key tra
Page 126 and 127: day, particularly in the peak hour.
Page 128 and 129: Impacts on Urban Development7.3.28
Page 130 and 131: 7.4.2 The East Kowloon Line would s
Page 132 and 133: 7.4.1 2 Both the financial return a
Page 134 and 135: 7.5.17 Patronage and economic resul
Page 136 and 137: Rail Operations7.6.15 Two proposals
Page 138 and 139: passenger services. Also, while lig
Page 140 and 141: .S.Bi ne economic evaluation or tne
Page 142 and 143: Conclusions7.9.15 At the projected
Page 144 and 145: 7.11.4 With an extension to Star Fe
Page 146 and 147: 7.13.7 It is estimated that the LRT
Page 148 and 149: Conclusions7.14.13 Both harbour cro
Page 150 and 151: 7.15.14 Financial support for the n
Page 152 and 153: FIGURE 8.1: PASSENGER TRANSPORT BY
Page 154 and 155: Railways8.2.6 Rail services began t
Page 156 and 157: Table 8.2PROJECTED DEMAND FOR SCHED
Page 158 and 159: FANLING/SHEUNG SHUIYUENLONGMA ON SH
Page 162 and 163: 8.4.10 The KCR main Sine is expecte
Page 164 and 165: Cross Harbour Bus Operations8.5.9 T
Page 166 and 167: 8.7.3 In the New Territories, the r
Page 168 and 169: ail corridor is now operating at fu
Page 170 and 171: urban area, the short term means of
Page 172 and 173: (2) More vehicles are required to d
Page 174 and 175: are classified under Vehicle Owners
Page 176 and 177: 9.5.5 Supplementary Licences—Thes
Page 178 and 179: 9.5.19 Controls are required on bot
Page 180 and 181: Park and Hide9.6.4 This policy prom
Page 182 and 183: Alternative Scenarios for the Evalu
Page 184 and 185: 9.7.18 Thus although the Centra! ec
Page 186 and 187: 9.3 INNumber of vehs (thous)CarsTax
Page 188 and 189: Table 9.4ON(Increases in goods vehi
Page 190 and 191: 9.11.3 The specific scheme chosen w
Page 192 and 193: Table 9.5(Similar to Scheme B inves
Page 194 and 195: traffic assessments. If the increas
Page 196 and 197: 10 ON10.1 Introduction10.1.1 This c
Page 198 and 199: 10.2.9 There are clearly some possi
Page 200 and 201: Railway Funding10.3.11 An expenditu
Page 202 and 203: Private Car Controls10.5.9 It is re
Page 204 and 205: c:,LEGEND V/C Ratio Range1.1 - 1.2>
Page 206 and 207: 10.6.4 Several roads are projected
Page 208 and 209: o1991 Committed1996 Recommended Str
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operation and operator. Much depend
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ANNEX 10.1PROJECTIONS OF THE VEHICL
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ANNEX 10.4BY(thousand vehicles per
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TOC
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