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Alternative Scenarios for the Evaluation9.7.9 The need for controls on traffic growth will depend on the future development of theTerritory, it was therefore important to examine each policy package under somealternative scenarios of development. The two most critical factors were consideredto be:(1) The rate of growth of the economy of Hong Kong(2) The rate of construction of new highway infrastructure9.7.10 Economic Growth—The Study made assumptions about the growth of the economyas discussed in Chapter 4. It was noted there that due to the expected slowing downin the growth rate of the labour force, the assumed long term rate of growth in GDPof about 5% to 6% per year in real terms is low compared to the extraordinary rates ofgrowth actually achieved in Hong Kong since the 1960s. Average annual growthhas been about 8.5% for the last 25 years with a 10% annual growth over the lastthree years. While it is prudent to take a conservative view of economic growth inlong term planning, it would not be appropriate to ignore the traffic growthconsequences of achieving higher economic growth given the past record of HongKong. Hence the traffic and economic consequences of the policy packages arespelt out for both the Central forecast of economic growth and for a High forecast ofgrowth of 9% real GDP growth per year.9.7.11 Highway Construct/on—The Study recommends a programme of highwayconstruction which would greatly reduce traffic congestion in all parts of theTerritory. However, completion of this programme according to the planned schedulecannot be assured for several reasons:(1) There may be a time when other sectors of the economy are making increasingdemands on Government funding, for example health, environmentand education.(2) Some of the major projects require completion of massive land reclamations offWest Kowloon and off Central and Wan Chas on Hong Kong Island. Thetechnical feasibility and the timing of these reclamations are not yet certain.(3) A decision to remove the airport from Kai Tak to another site could absorb muchof the available resources of the construction industry as well as much of theavailable funding, to the extent that the CTS-2 recommended highway projects,which are not essential to the airport re-located situation, might have to bepostponed.9.7.12 Therefore the situation was examined for each policy package for two constructionscenarios, one with the full highway investment programme recommended byCTS-2 for completion in the mid-1990s, and the other assuming that only half of theprogramme is completed. Clearly, it is not known which projects might be delayedand where the impacts on traffic congestion would be felt. Therefore a simplisticapproach was adopted by taking a situation half way between the full highwaystrategy and that with only the completion of the currently committed highwayprogramme,The Reference Case: No Change in Current Policies9.7.13 The situation with no changes in current policies is examined first to provide areference basis for considering new policies. This is summarised in Table 9.1,comparing 1996 conditions with those prevailing in 1986 which is the base year forthe Study.9.7.14 Without any changes in policy, the vehicle fleet of private cars and goods vehicles isexpected to approximately double in the ten years to 1996. This represents a growthrate of between 6% and 7% per year. With high economic growth, the vehicle growthrate could increase to about 10% to 11% per year which corresponds to the early180
1989 rate of growth following three years of high economic growth. Growth of thetaxi fleet is assumed to be constrained by the quotas to no more than 300 per year(but see Section 9.12 on Supplementary Policies),CURRENT TRAFFICNONumber of vehs (thous)CarsTaxisGoodsPCU-kilometres (thous/hr)AM Peak HKKowloonNew TerTotalOff-Peak HKKowloonNew TerTotalAM PeakOff-Peak198614416842344435861 2631774335441 154Average traffic speeds (km/h)HK22.0Kowloon22.2New Ter33.4Total26.2HK29.6Kowloon 21.9New Ter37.5Total28.7Central Economic GrowthCommitted 1J2CTS Full CTSHyws only Highways Highways280181544186551 24523183136031 0231 94013.821.026.221.326.324.835.229.7280181544186551 24523183136031 0231 94015.723.729.424.027.727.036.531.4280181544186551 24523183136031 0231 94017.626.432.626.829.129.237.833.1High Economic GrowthCommitted 1J2CTS Full CTSHyws only Highways Highways418182165688721 60030414087621 28524557.012.315.912.020.717.327.022.0418182165688721 60030414087621 28524557.913.917.813.621.818.828.023.3418182165688721 60030414087621 28524558.915.519.715.122.920.328.924.6Note: Central economic growth about 5.6% per yearHigh economic growth specified at 9% per year9.7.15 The growth in vehicles has a strong impact on traffic volumes which are projectedto grow from 1986 to 1996 by 84% and 68% in the peak and off-peak hoursrespectively under the Central economic growth assumption, but by 141% and113% with High economic growth.9.7.16 Projected traffic speeds vary according to traffic growth and the amount of highwayconstruction. With no further construction beyond current commitments and underthe Central economic growth assumption, traffic speeds would decline, relative to1986. A significant exception to this is Kowloon in the off-peak hour, which testifiesto the large improvements in traffic congestion likely to be brought about by themajor traffic projects opening in the next few years; in particular, the EasternHarbour Crossing, Kwun long Bypass, Tate's Cairn Tunnel and West KowloonCorridor.9.7.17 With the completion of the full CTS-2 highway construction programme, averagetraffic speeds in the Territory would exceed 1986 levels marginally in the peak hour.However, speed changes from 1986 are uneven. In particular, peak hour speeds onHong Kong Island would still be significantly worse than in 1986; about 18 km/h in1996 compared with 22 km/h in 1986. Under alternative scenarios, conditionswould be very much worse than in 1986. In particular, economic growth is a criticalaspect; under conditions of High economic growth, traffic speeds would be severelyreduced and unacceptably low in the urban areas in the peak hour, even with the fullCTS-2 highway programme.181
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THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONGLIBRARIE
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EPPrinted and Published by the Gove
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CONTENTSPage6. OF 966.1 Introductio
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Page3.1 Licensed Vehicles 1976-1988
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FIGURES_Page1.1 Special Character o
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Page1.1 Second Comprehensive Transp
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TRANSPORTPER UNIT OF GDPCars Per Th
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KCR Double Tracking &\ Electrificat
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1.2 The Second Comprehensive Transp
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1.2.17 The way in which these recla
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ANNEX1.1Terms of Reference(1) To pr
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2.2.1 introduction2.1.1 This chapte
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2.2: OF THEPROJECTS AND POLICIESFOR
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Transport Networks2.5.2 Description
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2.6.11 Operational Evaluation—The
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3.1GO OLicensed Vehicle Fleets (a]P
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Table 3.3 VEHICLE(Dollars per year)
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3.2.7 The car and motorcycle fleet
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3.2.14 The non-van goods vehicle fl
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3.2.23 Use of Light Vans as Private
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3.3 Road Usage and Road Constructio
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FIGURE 3.11:TRAFFIC IN URBAN HONG K
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FIGURE 3.14:TRAFFIC IN THE NEW TERR
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Table 3.6 CROSS HARBOUR TUNNEL TOLL
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3.5 Public Transport Patronage3.5.1
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3.5.4 The growth in rail transport
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taxi productivity. The average paid
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4.4.1 introduction4.1.1 Demand for
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Table 4.2DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION
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AreaTable 4.4Hong Kong islandKowioo
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4.2.14 An additional 425 000 jobs i
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4.3(1986-2001)Growth Over 1988Perio
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included in the financial costs. Pe
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4.5 International Traffic4.5.1 Proj
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Cross Border Rail Passenger Traffic
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Table 4.17IN(1971-1989)HighwayPrice
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contribution of Government equity t
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5. FORECASTS OF THE TRANSPORT SCENE
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FIGURE 5.2:PROJECTED DAILY TRIP MAK
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FIGURE 5.3: 1986 GENERATIONS AND AT
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FIGURE 5.5: PERSON TRAVEL DEMAND(CO
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Table 5.4PROJECTIONS OF DAILY TRIP
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Table 5.5 SCHEDULED PUBLIC BY(thous
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• FANLING/SHEUNG SHUIRMA ON SHANH
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Cars and taxis 1.00Minibus/Special
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LEGEND V/C Ratio Range• 1.1 - 1.2
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•Vf'rLEGEND V/C Ratio Range> 1.1
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FIGURE 5.13:TRAFFIC SPEEDS BY ROAD
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6. OF6.1 Introduction6.1.1 This cha
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LEGENDMajor Committed Road ProjectK
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LEGENDCandidate Road ProjectKowloon
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A V/C ratio of 1.0 or less indicate
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Table 6.3 SUMMARY OF HIGHWAY PORJEC
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6.5.1 2 The traffic implications of
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6.5.27 it is estimated that traffic
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6.7 and Airport Tunnel6.7.1 The Hun
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6.9.5 Conclusions— This is likely
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6.4(1988 Prices)ProjectLocFinancial
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sufficient detail to permit compute
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LEGENDMTR £_EHC LRT(under vL} cons
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7.1Peak TramHong KongTramwaysKowloo
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MTR/KCR Interchange7.2.14 A key tra
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day, particularly in the peak hour.
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Impacts on Urban Development7.3.28
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7.4.2 The East Kowloon Line would s
Page 132 and 133: 7.4.1 2 Both the financial return a
Page 134 and 135: 7.5.17 Patronage and economic resul
Page 136 and 137: Rail Operations7.6.15 Two proposals
Page 138 and 139: passenger services. Also, while lig
Page 140 and 141: .S.Bi ne economic evaluation or tne
Page 142 and 143: Conclusions7.9.15 At the projected
Page 144 and 145: 7.11.4 With an extension to Star Fe
Page 146 and 147: 7.13.7 It is estimated that the LRT
Page 148 and 149: Conclusions7.14.13 Both harbour cro
Page 150 and 151: 7.15.14 Financial support for the n
Page 152 and 153: FIGURE 8.1: PASSENGER TRANSPORT BY
Page 154 and 155: Railways8.2.6 Rail services began t
Page 156 and 157: Table 8.2PROJECTED DEMAND FOR SCHED
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Page 160 and 161: severe on the MTR island Line where
Page 162 and 163: 8.4.10 The KCR main Sine is expecte
Page 164 and 165: Cross Harbour Bus Operations8.5.9 T
Page 166 and 167: 8.7.3 In the New Territories, the r
Page 168 and 169: ail corridor is now operating at fu
Page 170 and 171: urban area, the short term means of
Page 172 and 173: (2) More vehicles are required to d
Page 174 and 175: are classified under Vehicle Owners
Page 176 and 177: 9.5.5 Supplementary Licences—Thes
Page 178 and 179: 9.5.19 Controls are required on bot
Page 180 and 181: Park and Hide9.6.4 This policy prom
Page 184 and 185: 9.7.18 Thus although the Centra! ec
Page 186 and 187: 9.3 INNumber of vehs (thous)CarsTax
Page 188 and 189: Table 9.4ON(Increases in goods vehi
Page 190 and 191: 9.11.3 The specific scheme chosen w
Page 192 and 193: Table 9.5(Similar to Scheme B inves
Page 194 and 195: traffic assessments. If the increas
Page 196 and 197: 10 ON10.1 Introduction10.1.1 This c
Page 198 and 199: 10.2.9 There are clearly some possi
Page 200 and 201: Railway Funding10.3.11 An expenditu
Page 202 and 203: Private Car Controls10.5.9 It is re
Page 204 and 205: c:,LEGEND V/C Ratio Range1.1 - 1.2>
Page 206 and 207: 10.6.4 Several roads are projected
Page 208 and 209: o1991 Committed1996 Recommended Str
Page 210 and 211: operation and operator. Much depend
Page 212 and 213: ANNEX 10.1PROJECTIONS OF THE VEHICL
Page 214 and 215: ANNEX 10.4BY(thousand vehicles per
Page 216 and 217: TOC
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