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9.7.18 Thus although the Centra! economic growth projection combined with constructionof the full highway programme recommended by CTS-2 appears to show acceptabletraffic conditions in 1996, the current high growth rate of the economy and thedifficulty of achieving the completion dates of highway projects show that there areno grounds for complacency.9.8 Package 1: Car Ownership Taxes9.8.1 The first policy package examined was an extension of the existing controls on carownership through increased vehicle taxation. The results are shown in Table 9.2.9.8.2 An increase in taxation on private cars and motor cycles in terms of annual licencefees and First Registration Tax of 50% was investigated, making an averageannualised increase of about $5,000 per vehicle. This would reduce the projectedunrestrained car and motorcycle fleet in 1996 from 280000 to 233000. Thiscompares with a fleet size at the end of June 1988 of 165 000, and shows an annualaverage growth rate of about 5% per year.9.8.3 Under conditions of Central economic growth and construction of the fullrecommended CTS-2 highway programme, this policy package results in veryeffective congestion relief. Traffic conditions would be as good if not better than in1986 based on a comparison of traffic speeds.9.8.4 While significant savings are brought about in operating costs for all transportoperations, this policy suffers by the massive disbenefits to would-be private carowners who can no longer afford this luxury. Under this policy, the private motoristpays a heavy price for the benefits brought to the rest of the community.9.8.5 While the policy is effective in traffic operations terms under Central economicgrowth and the full highway programme, the situation is not so good underconditions of higher economic growth or less highway construction. The 50%increase in taxes discussed above would have a much reduced impact on the size ofthe vehicle fleet and traffic conditions would be much worse than in 1986particularly in the peak hour. Even increasing the taxation on private cars and motorcycles by 120%, to reduce the vehicle fleet to the same size estimated under Centraleconomic growth for a 50% increase in taxation, would not improve traffic conditionsto 1986 levels. This is principally because of the estimated high growth in goodsvehicle traffic under conditions of High economic growth.9.8.6 Private car and motor cycle ownership restraint has the merit of being a familiar andtested policy in Hong Kong. It is simple to administer, effective in reducing vehicleownership and hence in tackling general congestion. However, it is non-selective asit is not directed at times and places where congestion is particularly a problem.Under conditions of High economic growth, other measures would be required inaddition; in particular controls on goods vehicle growth.9.9 Package 2: Fuel Tax9.9.1 The second package of options still concentrated on the control of car traffic,examining the impact of a doubling of petrol tax from $2.30 per litre to $4.60. Onlythe impact on car travel was examined although it is recognised that some light vanshave petrol engines. The results are reported in Table 9.3.9.9.2 The results in terms of traffic operations are quite similar to the effects of increasingcar ownership taxes although the impact of doubling petrol tax was less effectivethan a 50% increase in car ownership tax. It is emphasised though that the impactsof petrol tax are a little uncertain; it would be a new approach to traffic control andthe impacts of such an increase in tax would require careful monitoring.9.9.3 Economic benefits from savings in vehicle operating costs, travel time and publictransport operations were obtained at about one third of the level obtained from carownership taxes tested in Package 1. However, a petrol tax does not suffer from themassive economic disbenefits associated with car ownership taxes.182
Table 9.2 IN CARNumber of vehs (thous)CarsTaxisGoodsPCU-kilometres (thousfhr)AM Peak HKKowloonNew TerTotalOff-Peak HKKowloonNew TerTotalAverage traffic speeds (kmIn)AM Peak HKKowloonNew TerTotalOff-Peak HKKowloonNew TerTotalEconomic Benefits ($ mi/s/year)Operating cost savingsPassenger time savingsGenerated traffic benefitsPublic Transport savingsTotal economic benefits198614416842344435861 2631774335441 15422.022.233.426.229.621.937.528.7Committee/Hyws onlyCentra/ Economic GrowthCar Taxes Up112 CTSHighways23318-1543836101 18821812885719931 85316.824.028.824.428.426.936.531.6427277(822)353233181543836101 18821812885719931 85319.127.132.327.529.929.437.833.4379245(822)313Full CTSHighways233181543836101 18821812885719931 85321.430.235.830.631.431.839.135.2340220(822)281CommittedHyws onlyHigh Economic Growth—1Car Taxes Up 50%7/2 CTSHighways346182165107981 50828163677121 24023198.914.617.914.322.819.228.223.81 512979(1 302)1 250346182165107981 50828163677121 240231910.116.420.016.224.020.929.225.21 340868(1 302)1 107Full CTSHighways346182165107981 50828163677121 240231911.318.322.218.025.222.630.226.61 203779(1 302)994CommittedHyws onlyHigh Economic Growth—2Car Taxes Up 120%112 CTSHighways233182164467221 41225803286571 193217911.917.620.417.525.221.729.526.032502105(4 703)2686233182164467221 41225803286571 193217913.619.822.919.726.623.630.527.528821 866(4 703)2382Full CTSHighways233182164467221 41225803286571 193217915.222.125.421.927.925.631.628.925891 677(4 703)2140235 116 20 2439 2014 1 675 3338 2427 1 702Note: Central economic growth about 5.6% per yearHigh economic growth specified at 9% per year
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THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONGLIBRARIE
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EPPrinted and Published by the Gove
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CONTENTSPage6. OF 966.1 Introductio
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Page3.1 Licensed Vehicles 1976-1988
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FIGURES_Page1.1 Special Character o
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Page1.1 Second Comprehensive Transp
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TRANSPORTPER UNIT OF GDPCars Per Th
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KCR Double Tracking &\ Electrificat
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1.2 The Second Comprehensive Transp
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1.2.17 The way in which these recla
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ANNEX1.1Terms of Reference(1) To pr
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2.2.1 introduction2.1.1 This chapte
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2.2: OF THEPROJECTS AND POLICIESFOR
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Transport Networks2.5.2 Description
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2.6.11 Operational Evaluation—The
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3.1GO OLicensed Vehicle Fleets (a]P
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Table 3.3 VEHICLE(Dollars per year)
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3.2.7 The car and motorcycle fleet
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3.2.14 The non-van goods vehicle fl
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3.2.23 Use of Light Vans as Private
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3.3 Road Usage and Road Constructio
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FIGURE 3.11:TRAFFIC IN URBAN HONG K
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FIGURE 3.14:TRAFFIC IN THE NEW TERR
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Table 3.6 CROSS HARBOUR TUNNEL TOLL
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3.5 Public Transport Patronage3.5.1
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3.5.4 The growth in rail transport
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taxi productivity. The average paid
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4.4.1 introduction4.1.1 Demand for
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Table 4.2DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION
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AreaTable 4.4Hong Kong islandKowioo
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4.2.14 An additional 425 000 jobs i
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4.3(1986-2001)Growth Over 1988Perio
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included in the financial costs. Pe
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4.5 International Traffic4.5.1 Proj
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Cross Border Rail Passenger Traffic
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Table 4.17IN(1971-1989)HighwayPrice
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contribution of Government equity t
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5. FORECASTS OF THE TRANSPORT SCENE
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FIGURE 5.2:PROJECTED DAILY TRIP MAK
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FIGURE 5.3: 1986 GENERATIONS AND AT
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FIGURE 5.5: PERSON TRAVEL DEMAND(CO
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Table 5.4PROJECTIONS OF DAILY TRIP
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Table 5.5 SCHEDULED PUBLIC BY(thous
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• FANLING/SHEUNG SHUIRMA ON SHANH
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Cars and taxis 1.00Minibus/Special
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LEGEND V/C Ratio Range• 1.1 - 1.2
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•Vf'rLEGEND V/C Ratio Range> 1.1
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FIGURE 5.13:TRAFFIC SPEEDS BY ROAD
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6. OF6.1 Introduction6.1.1 This cha
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LEGENDMajor Committed Road ProjectK
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LEGENDCandidate Road ProjectKowloon
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A V/C ratio of 1.0 or less indicate
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Table 6.3 SUMMARY OF HIGHWAY PORJEC
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6.5.1 2 The traffic implications of
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6.5.27 it is estimated that traffic
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6.7 and Airport Tunnel6.7.1 The Hun
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6.9.5 Conclusions— This is likely
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6.4(1988 Prices)ProjectLocFinancial
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sufficient detail to permit compute
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LEGENDMTR £_EHC LRT(under vL} cons
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7.1Peak TramHong KongTramwaysKowloo
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MTR/KCR Interchange7.2.14 A key tra
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day, particularly in the peak hour.
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Impacts on Urban Development7.3.28
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7.4.2 The East Kowloon Line would s
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7.4.1 2 Both the financial return a
Page 134 and 135: 7.5.17 Patronage and economic resul
Page 136 and 137: Rail Operations7.6.15 Two proposals
Page 138 and 139: passenger services. Also, while lig
Page 140 and 141: .S.Bi ne economic evaluation or tne
Page 142 and 143: Conclusions7.9.15 At the projected
Page 144 and 145: 7.11.4 With an extension to Star Fe
Page 146 and 147: 7.13.7 It is estimated that the LRT
Page 148 and 149: Conclusions7.14.13 Both harbour cro
Page 150 and 151: 7.15.14 Financial support for the n
Page 152 and 153: FIGURE 8.1: PASSENGER TRANSPORT BY
Page 154 and 155: Railways8.2.6 Rail services began t
Page 156 and 157: Table 8.2PROJECTED DEMAND FOR SCHED
Page 158 and 159: FANLING/SHEUNG SHUIYUENLONGMA ON SH
Page 160 and 161: severe on the MTR island Line where
Page 162 and 163: 8.4.10 The KCR main Sine is expecte
Page 164 and 165: Cross Harbour Bus Operations8.5.9 T
Page 166 and 167: 8.7.3 In the New Territories, the r
Page 168 and 169: ail corridor is now operating at fu
Page 170 and 171: urban area, the short term means of
Page 172 and 173: (2) More vehicles are required to d
Page 174 and 175: are classified under Vehicle Owners
Page 176 and 177: 9.5.5 Supplementary Licences—Thes
Page 178 and 179: 9.5.19 Controls are required on bot
Page 180 and 181: Park and Hide9.6.4 This policy prom
Page 182 and 183: Alternative Scenarios for the Evalu
Page 186 and 187: 9.3 INNumber of vehs (thous)CarsTax
Page 188 and 189: Table 9.4ON(Increases in goods vehi
Page 190 and 191: 9.11.3 The specific scheme chosen w
Page 192 and 193: Table 9.5(Similar to Scheme B inves
Page 194 and 195: traffic assessments. If the increas
Page 196 and 197: 10 ON10.1 Introduction10.1.1 This c
Page 198 and 199: 10.2.9 There are clearly some possi
Page 200 and 201: Railway Funding10.3.11 An expenditu
Page 202 and 203: Private Car Controls10.5.9 It is re
Page 204 and 205: c:,LEGEND V/C Ratio Range1.1 - 1.2>
Page 206 and 207: 10.6.4 Several roads are projected
Page 208 and 209: o1991 Committed1996 Recommended Str
Page 210 and 211: operation and operator. Much depend
Page 212 and 213: ANNEX 10.1PROJECTIONS OF THE VEHICL
Page 214 and 215: ANNEX 10.4BY(thousand vehicles per
Page 216 and 217: TOC
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