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7.4.1 2 Both the financial return and the community return as defined above are single yearvalues for operation in the two years 1996 and 2001. Comparison of the values forthe two years indicates the impact on viability of postponing construction from theearly 1990s to the late 1990s. For selected projects, a lifetime evaluation over anoperating period of 20 years was also undertaken; these are reported individually.7.4.1 3 Each individual candidate rail project is now reported on in Sections 7.5 to 7.14.7.5 MTR Junk Bay Extension7.5.1 An extension of the MTR system has featured in the planning of Junk Bay NewTown from the beginning. The current proposal is for a branch from the Kwun TongLine, starting from the Lam Tin Station now under construction as part of the EasternHarbour Crossing works, through a station at Yau Tong to four stations in the newtown of Junk Bay. Some trains in the peak hour would be run all the way from JunkBay to Yau Ma Tei, the rest would operate as a shuttle between Junk Bay and LamTin.7.5.2 The planned University of Science and Technology is also planned at Sai Kung andso the possibility of extending the MTR line to the University was also examined.Catchment Area7.5.3 The catchment area for the planned extension is well defined, comprising the newtown of Junk Bay, the community of Yau Tong and the University of Science andTechnology.7.5.4 Yau Tong is a relatively small centre with a 1986 population approaching 50000.This is expected to decline to nearer 40 000 by 2001 with declining household size.The Third University would have a daytime population of perhaps 10 000 studentsand staff; about half this number would be resident. Therefore, it is the populationof Junk Bay New Town itself which would supply most of the patronage of the railextension.7.5.5 Development of the new town commenced in 1986 and by 1988 had reached32 000 population. The central projection for CTS-2 indicates 137 000 populationby 1996, and 200 000 by 2001. Recently, though, the Government has undertakenengineering feasiblity studies into the development of Junk Bay Phase III, whichwould boost the growth rate considerably. A high population growth with Phase 111is now indicated as follows:Patronage Projections1996 164 0001997 1980001998 203 0002001 270 0002002 300 0002010 4000007.5.6 Patronage of the Junk Bay extension would depend principally on population levelsin Junk Bay but also on income levels which are generally rising. Projected volumesto and from Junk Bay associated with the population growth rate given above are asfollows (in thousands of passengers per day, measuring traffic between Yau Tongand Junk Bay):Central HighPop Pop1996 144 1612001 213 273130