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Conclusions7.7.10 On the evidence presented here, the extension of the Island Line to either KennedyTown or Green Island would be a marginal project heavily dependent for justificationon the estimates of passenger travel time savings. Financial results would be poor.7.7.11 Much depends on the developments on Green Island. Without extensive developmentthere, extension of the Island Line west of Sheung Wan appears to be of a !owpriority. The extension wiii also depend on the decision on the relocation of theairport.7.8 IV1TR Kowloon Line7.8.1 The original concept of the Mass Transit Railway included four lines, of whichthree—the Kwun Tong Line, the Tsuen Wan Line and the Island Line; have all beenlargely completed. The fourth line was the East Kowloon Line from Diamond Hill inKowloon to Sheung Wan on Hong Kong Island via Kai Tak, To Kwa Wan and TsimSha Tsui. CTS-2 re-examined the potential for this line on the above alignment butwith additional extensions, one to the south terminating at Wong Chuk Hang to theeast of Aberdeen and the other to the north terminating at Sha Tin in the NewTerritories. An alignment has been reserved through Eastern Kowloon.Projected Patronage7.8.2 Projected volumes on this line for 1996 are as follows (in thousands of passengersper day):1996 2001West of Aberdeen 50 55Aberdeen to Sheung Wan 230 250Cross-harbour 380 420Star Ferry to Hung Horn 370 410Hung Horn to Diamond Hill 360 400Diamond Hill to Tsz Wan Shan 370 400Tsz Wan Shan to Sha Tin 300 3307.8.3 These are high volumes by most urban mass transit standards; for example, they aresignificantly higher than volumes on the Island Line in 1986.7.8.4 In the central section of the line through the East Kowloon peninsula, traffic on theline is taken in mainly from the MTR Nathan Road corridor and from buses; there isalso some diversion from the KCR main line. The northern section of the linebetween Diamond Hill and Sha Tin attracts traffic equally from the KCR main lineand from bus routes. The least trafficked section of the line in the south attractstraffic from the alternative bus routes.7.8.5 Traffic volumes in the central section of the line would be cut by about 40% withoutthe Sha Tin extension, and by about 20% without the Aberdeen extension. Projectedvolumes are well within the capacity of an MTR line.7.8.6 At the development densities currently prevailing in the East Kowloon peninsula,bus services could cope with the expected demands in the corridor in the absence ofthe East Kowloon Line.Financial/Economic Evaluation7.8.7 The financial evaluation shows that the East Kowloon Line could cover operatingcosts and equipment depreciation by 1996, but the operating surplus would besmall giving a LOW return on the investment.137