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4.5 International Traffic4.5.1 Projections of international traffic were required at all points where it enters theTerritory. These were:— the Border with China (Road and Rail)— Internationa! Ferries— the Airport— the PortEach are discussed below.Cross Border Traffic4.5.2 There is considerable uncertainty involved in projecting China border crossingsbecause many of the factors which affect transport demand on the China side arevery difficult to predict; also trend information is too recent and limited to be used.Therefore low, median and high projections were derived. The median value wasused in preparing the main travel forecasts, and sensitivity tests examined the impactof the high and low values on project evaluations.4.5.3 Goods vehicle traffic is the dominant part of the cross border vehicle traffic. Roadtonnage increased seven-fold between 1981 and 1986 and annual crossings bygoods vehicles increased by 37% per year and doubled between 1985 and 1987.Growth in cross-border goods vehicle traffic is shown in Figure 4.7.4.7:12Par Day1081 82 83 84 86 86 87 884.5.4 One of the most recent studies available to CTS-2 concerning trade with China wasthe Hung Horn Bay Development Study. This projected freight traffic for the CTS-2design period. Estimates of goods vehicles crossing the border were derived on theassumption that their share of tonnage would be the same as today's, with thebalance carried by rail and sea. This gave the low projection of goods vehicle traffic.4.5.5 A high projection of goods vehicle crossings was forecast assuming that the highgrowth would continue. This projection assumed that the number of crossingswould double between 1987 and 1991, and continue to double every five yearsthereafter. A median projection was then developed, simply as the average of thehigh and low projections. Projections are illustrated in Figure 4,8.66