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7.5.7 Patronage on the line approaching the junction with the existing Kwun long Linewould be boosted by about 60 000 per day with the additional passengers from theYau long area. The 7 000 students and 3 000 staff of the Third University could beexpected to generate a maximum additional 20000 daily trips to and from theUniversity.7.5.8 These volumes would be wei! within the capacity of the MTR system.Alternative Transport7.5.9 Without the MTR extension to Junk Bay, public transport would be dependentmainly on buses, although high speed ferry transport to the main urban area could beconsidered to supplement these services. The passenger volumes generated by thefull development of Junk Bay would require very careful management without a railline.7.5.10 While many buses could be express services to other parts of the urban area, forinstance, across to West Kowioon and through the Eastern Harbour Crossing toHong Kong Island, there would be a high demand for short distance feeder servicesto rail stations in East Kowioon. For these services, it would be essential for most busloading and unloading operations to take place at off-street termini located in towncentres, at railway stations and in housing estates. It would also be difficult to findsuitable interchanges in the Kwun Tong area. Even with careful planning, however,management of the bus and passenger volumes involved would be difficult andcould prove to be a constraint on the growth of Junk Bay New Town.Financial/Economic Evaluation7.5.11 The financial evaluation indicates that passenger fare revenues would cover railoperating costs and rolling stock depreciation, even with a population of less than150000 in Junk Bay. Return on investment would be very low at this populationlevel but would rapidly improve with the growth in population in the new town.7.5.12 The economic analysis indicates strong economic benefits from travel time savingsand savings in operating costs of road-based public transport services and privateroad vehicles. By 2001, the economic return is rated as HIGH with full time benefitsand MEDIUM with only one third of time benefits.7.5.13 Internal rates of return (IRR) were estimated assuming that construction started in1992 for opening in 1996, with the following results:CentralHighEconomic IRR Population PopulationFull time savings High High1/3rd time savings Medium HighFinancial IRR Low Medium7.5.14 These results assume a continuing growth in economic and financial returns of 4%per year after 2001, which assumes the continuing build up of Junk Bay new townto the levels indicated in paragraph 7.5.5. The results generally confirm the resultsof the single year analyses.7.5.15 With the patronage projected, the extension of the Junk Bay Line to the Universityof Science and Technology could not possibly be justified in either financial oreconomic terms. It would be much more efficient to operate feeder services betweenthe University and the MTR station in Junk Bay town.Conclusions7.5.16 The MTR extension to Junk Bay would clearly be an attractive project expected tocarry over half the public transport demand to and from Junk Bay. However, thefurther extension from Junk Bay to the Third University would not be worthwhile.131