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Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications Mark New, Diana Liverman, Heike Schroder and Kevin Anderson Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011 369, 6-19 doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0303 References Rapid response Subject collections Email alerting service Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 This article cites 42 articles, 14 of which can be accessed free http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/6.full.ht ml#ref-list-1 Respond to this article http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/letters/submit/roypta;369/ 1934/6 Articles on similar topics can be found in the following collections climatology (75 articles) To subscribe to Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A go to: http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/subscriptions Receive free email alerts when new articles cite this article - sign up in the box at the top right-hand corner of the article or click here This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society
Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 INTRODUCTION Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369, 6–19 doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0303 Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications BY MARK N EW 1,∗ ,DIANA LIVERMAN 2 ,HEIKE SCHRODER 3 AND K EVIN ANDERSON 4,5 1 School of Geography and Environment and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, 2 Institute of the Environment, University of Arizona and Environmental Change Institute, and 3 Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK 4 Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Mechanical, Aerospace and Civil Engineering, University of Manchester, PO Box 88, Manchester M60 1QD, UK 5 School of Environmental Sciences and School of Development, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7JT, UK The 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change commits signatories to preventing ‘dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’, leaving unspecified the level of global warming that is dangerous. In the late 1990s, a limit of 2 ◦ C global warming above preindustrial temperature was proposed as a ‘guard rail’ below which most of the dangerous climate impacts could be avoided. The 2009 Copenhagen Accord recognized the scientific view ‘that the increase in global temperature should be below 2 degrees Celsius’ despite growing views that this might be too high. At the same time, the continued rise in greenhouse gas emissions in the past decade and the delays in a comprehensive global emissions reduction agreement have made achieving this target extremely difficult, arguably impossible, raising the likelihood of global temperature rises of 3 ◦ Cor4 ◦ C within this century. Yet, there are few studies that assess the potential impacts and consequences of a warming of 4 ◦ C or greater in a systematic manner. Papers in this themed issue provide an initial picture of the challenges facing a world that warms by 4 ◦ C or more, and the difficulties ahead if warming is to be limited to 2 ◦ C with any reasonable certainty. Across many sectors—coastal cities, agriculture, water stress, ecosystems, migration—the impacts and adaptation challenges at 4 ◦ C will be larger than at 2 ◦ C. In some cases, such as farming in sub-Saharan Africa, a +4 ◦ C warming could result in the collapse of systems or require transformational adaptation out of systems, as we understand them today. The potential severity of impacts and the behavioural, institutional, societal and economic challenges involved in coping with these ∗ Author for correspondence (mark.new@ouce.ox.ac.uk). One contribution of 13 to a Theme Issue ‘Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications’. 6 This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society
Page 1 and 2: ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
Page 3 and 4: Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
Page 5 and 6: Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
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Review. Global warming reaching 4
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global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
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temperature (relative to 1861-1890
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°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
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Regional temperature and precipitat
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86 M. G. Sanderson et al. technical
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88 M. G. Sanderson et al. Table 1.
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98 M. G. Sanderson et al. 12 Betts,
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Water availability in +2 ◦ C and
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(ii) Water stress index Water avail
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(b) (c) (d) (a) Water availability
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(a) number of models, black line nu
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change in run-off (%) change in run
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Agriculture and food systems in sub
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118 P. K. Thornton et al. 1. Introd
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120 P. K. Thornton et al. increases
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122 P. K. Thornton et al. Table 1.
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124 P. K. Thornton et al. century.
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Humid tropical forests on a warmer
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(a) Humid tropical forests on a war
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 (a)
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 0
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Sea-level rise and its possible imp
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REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
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Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C w
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spread in mosquitoborne disease may
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[89,94,95] further acidification by
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Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
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