Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

More documents

Recommendations

Info

222 R. Warren Table 2. A variety of examples of cross-sectoral interactions: x-axis—driving sector, which incurs climate change impacts directly; y-axis—the incumbent sector, which incurs impacts indirectly as a result of the changes in the driving sector. Each example is followed by a (y) or an (n) indicating whether the driving sector impact has been quantified at all; secondly a (y) or an (n) indicating whether the effect of the interaction upon the incumbent sector has generally been included in physically based quantitative assessments of the impacts of climate change on the incumbent sector. Indirect effects that impact upon the incumbent sector as a result of human adaptation to impacts in the driving sector are also included. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 driving sector → hydrology agriculture coasts terrestrial oceans biodiversity human ecosystems health incumbent sector ↓ — — as for terrestrial ecosystems — changes in biome type affect soil moisture content and evapotranspiration hydrology ∗∗∗∗∗ adaptation to impacts increasing demand for water (n, n) — — loss of pollinators (some y, n); loss of wild crop types (y, n); pests and diseases (some rates (some y, n) loss of carbon from soils (y, n) ∗∗∗∗∗ farmland loss owing to sea-level rise and salinization (y, n) agriculture and food water stress reducing crop yields (y, y) — y, n) ∗∗∗∗∗ — — changes in coastal ecosystems (y, n) agricultural intensification leading to increased nutrient run-off (n, n) coasts changes in nutrient levels in estuaries (n, n)
spread in mosquitoborne disease may encourage use of DDT (n, n) ∗∗∗∗∗ — loss of keystone species (some y, n) loss of saltmarsh and mangroves to sea-level rise (y, y) land conversion owing to shifts in agricultural production (some y, n) changes in hydrology affect soil moisture content and evaporation rates (y, y) terrestrial ecosystems ∗∗∗∗∗ changes in marine productivity oceans — — declines in migratory freshwater fish Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C world 223 (y, n) changes in net loss of calcifying ∗∗∗∗∗ declines primary species, potential owing to production affect disruption of DDT use competition (e.g. marine ecosystem, (n, n) savannah/scrub, in particular (n, n) lianas/trees) (some y, some y) loss of ecosystem loss of fish stocks, loss loss of medicinal ∗∗∗∗∗ services, e.g. C of livelihoods of plants (n, n); sinks, water persons dependent spread of purification, on coral reef fish infectious disease coastal (y, y) (y, y) protection; soil erosion, nature deficit syndrome (some y, n) — — — — loss of coastal wetlands (y, n) agricultural intensification reducing biodiversity (n, n) biodiversity declines in species (some y, some y); construction of dams disrupts freshwater ecosystems saltwater intrusion threatening water supplies; potential for disease post-coastal flooding (n, n) malnutrition (y, y) human health water stress (y, y); construction of dams can lead to outbreaks of disease such as malaria and schistosomiasis (n, n) — damage owing to storm surges (y, y) subsidence (n, n); construction of dams can lead to inundation of settlements (n, n) settlements and infrastructure
Page 1 and 2:
ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
Page 3 and 4:
Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
Page 5 and 6:
Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
Page 7 and 8:
Four degrees and beyond: the potent
Page 9 and 10:
Preface 5 commitments might give us
Page 11 and 12:
Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypu
Page 13 and 14:
8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
Page 15 and 16:
10 M. New et al. supports the messa
Page 17 and 18:
12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
Page 19 and 20:
14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
Page 21 and 22:
16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
Page 23 and 24:
18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
Page 25 and 26:
Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
Page 27 and 28:
Beyond dangerous climate change 21
Page 29 and 30:
Page 31 and 32:
Page 33 and 34:
(i) Energy and industrial process e
Page 35 and 36:
Page 37 and 38:
Page 39 and 40:
(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
Page 41 and 42:
Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
Page 43 and 44:
Page 45 and 46:
Page 47 and 48:
Page 49 and 50:
Page 51 and 52:
Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
Page 53 and 54:
46 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. althoug
Page 55 and 56:
48 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. a likel
Page 57 and 58:
50 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (b) Mod
Page 59 and 60:
52 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. In most
Page 61 and 62:
54 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. rates o
Page 63 and 64:
56 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) pea
Page 65 and 66:
58 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. We can
Page 67 and 68:
60 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) rel
Page 69 and 70:
62 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) 0.3
Page 71 and 72:
64 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. 4. Conc
Page 73 and 74:
66 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. increas
Page 75 and 76:
Page 77 and 78:
emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
Page 79 and 80:
Review. Global warming reaching 4
Page 81 and 82:
Page 83 and 84:
global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
temperature (relative to 1861-1890
Page 89 and 90:
°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
Page 91 and 92:
Page 93 and 94:
Regional temperature and precipitat
Page 95 and 96:
86 M. G. Sanderson et al. technical
Page 97 and 98:
88 M. G. Sanderson et al. Table 1.
Page 99 and 100:
90 M. G. Sanderson et al. (a) 90°
Page 101 and 102:
92 M. G. Sanderson et al. An area o
Page 103 and 104:
94 M. G. Sanderson et al. South Ame
Page 105 and 106:
96 M. G. Sanderson et al. For DJF (
Page 107 and 108:
98 M. G. Sanderson et al. 12 Betts,
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Water availability in +2 ◦ C and
Page 113 and 114:
(ii) Water stress index Water avail
Page 115 and 116:
(b) (c) (d) (a) Water availability
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
(a) number of models, black line nu
Page 121 and 122:
change in run-off (%) change in run
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Agriculture and food systems in sub
Page 129 and 130:
118 P. K. Thornton et al. 1. Introd
Page 131 and 132:
120 P. K. Thornton et al. increases
Page 133 and 134:
122 P. K. Thornton et al. Table 1.
Page 135 and 136:
124 P. K. Thornton et al. century.
Page 137 and 138:
126 P. K. Thornton et al. and polit
Page 139 and 140:
128 P. K. Thornton et al. — The r
Page 141 and 142:
130 P. K. Thornton et al. keepers i
Page 143 and 144:
132 P. K. Thornton et al. 3 Frayne,
Page 145 and 146:
134 P. K. Thornton et al. 41 Erikse
Page 147 and 148:
136 P. K. Thornton et al. 83 Challi
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Humid tropical forests on a warmer
Page 153 and 154:
(a) Humid tropical forests on a war
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 (a)
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 0
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
Sea-level rise and its possible imp
Page 175 and 176:
162 R. J. Nicholls et al. expected.
Page 177 and 178:
164 R. J. Nicholls et al. sea-level
Page 179 and 180:
166 R. J. Nicholls et al. mean temp
Page 181 and 182:
168 R. J. Nicholls et al. interglac
Page 183 and 184:
170 R. J. Nicholls et al. discussed
Page 185 and 186:
172 R. J. Nicholls et al. land loss
Page 187 and 188: 174 R. J. Nicholls et al. global ad
Page 189 and 190: 176 R. J. Nicholls et al. Hence, th
Page 191 and 192: 178 R. J. Nicholls et al. to climat
Page 193 and 194: 180 R. J. Nicholls et al. 43 Pardae
Page 195 and 196: Climate-induced population displace
Page 211 and 212: Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypu
Page 213 and 214: 198 M. Stafford Smith et al. the di
Page 215 and 216: 200 M. Stafford Smith et al. greate
Page 217 and 218: 202 M. Stafford Smith et al. Table
Page 219 and 220: 204 M. Stafford Smith et al. (c) Go
Page 221 and 222: 206 M. Stafford Smith et al. mean g
Page 223 and 224: 208 M. Stafford Smith et al. These
Page 225 and 226: 210 M. Stafford Smith et al. consid
Page 227 and 228: 212 M. Stafford Smith et al. — De
Page 229 and 230: 214 M. Stafford Smith et al. 12 Lem
Page 231 and 232: 216 M. Stafford Smith et al. 51 Ste
Page 233 and 234: REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
Page 235 and 236: Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C w
Page 237: Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C w
Page 241 and 242: [89,94,95] further acidification by
Page 259: Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
show all

Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?