Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

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150 P. Zelazowski et al. Table 2. Annual mean temperature, annual precipitation and maximum climatological water stress (MCWD100; with and without accounting for climate-change-induced changes in evapotranspiration, ET) in tropical regions inhabited by HTFs, and mean change in these variables at 2◦C/4◦Cof global warming, as derived from AOGCM data. Values are given for regions spatially equivalent to HadCM3 grid boxes that currently support HTFs. temperature (2 ◦ C/4 ◦ C) annual precipitation (2 ◦ C/4 ◦ C) MCWD100 (2 ◦ C/4 ◦ C) MCWD100 + ET change (2 ◦ C/4 ◦ C) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 no. GCM made in Americas Africa Asia Americas Africa Asia Americas Africa Asia Americas Africa Asia CRU (contemporary climate) a UK 24.6 24.0 25.2 1952 1585 2021 −287 −322 −353 −287 −322 −353 WorldClim (contemporary USA 24.8 24.0 24.8 1983 1553 1990 −208 −270 −283 −208 −270 −283 climate) 1 BCCR-BCM2.0a Norway 1.6/3.3 1.6/3.3 1.5/3.2 78/163 71/150 60/127 −3/−24 21/34 7/8 77/102 100/150 86/131 2 CCCMA-CGCM3.1.T47 Canada 1.8/4.3 1.6/3.9 1.5/3.6 −42/−101 31/76 78/189 −23/−73 27/49 13/28 67/69 107/155 91/140 3 CSIRO-MK3.0a Australia 1.9/5.4 1.7/4.6 1.6/4.6 −75/−208 103/287 155/434 −78/−290 2/-39 −26/−134 9/−143 88/89 56/−12 4 CSIRO-MK3.5a Australia 1.9/4.7 1.7/4.2 1.4/3.4 −143/−347 36/88 96/232 −41/−176 −8/−50 −19/−87 49/−48 81/93 63/51 5 GFDL-CM2.0 USA 1.8/4.5 1.6/4.0 1.5/3.8 −50/−124 5/12 33/82 −24/−92 19/37 −1/−14 62/62 104/161 79/105 6 GFDL-CM2.1 USA 1.9/4.5 1.9/4.5 1.6/3.9 23/54 16/38 9/21 −23/−64 9/10 −16/−44 61/69 92/137 65/88 7 GISS-EH USA 1.7/4.2 1.8/4.5 1.6/3.8 112/274 58/141 38/94 11/15 14/27 −12/−20 87/126 100/152 68/93 8 IAP-FGOALS-g1.0 China 1.9/4.5 2.0/4.8 1.7/4.1 10/24 24/58 82/202 −10/−37 24/42 −24/−89 73/82 108/141 57/30 9 INM-CM3.0a Russia 1.5/3.6 1.6/3.9 1.5/3.5 165/401 37/91 34/82 −12/−64 34/36 −11/−66 71/68 115/153 67/68 10 IPSL-CM4 France 1.7/4.1 1.6/4.0 1.6/3.9 66/162 1/1 66/161 −3/−37 17/25 −5/−17 76/92 105/157 73/109 11 MIROC3.2 (hires) a Japan 1.7/4.2 1.5/3.8 1.5/3.6 19/45 16/39 50/123 2/−20 18/33 10/12 81/105 103/153 88/129 12 MIROC3.2 (medres) a Japan 1.9/4.5 1.5/3.5 1.4/3.3 28/69 85/206 71/172 −6/−30 54/92 8/15 75/100 131/184 86/131 13 MPI-ECHAM5 Germany 1.9/4.6 1.7/4.2 1.6/3.9 −16/−39 78/187 124/297 −23/−73 7/11 1/−1 62/72 95/142 81/120 14 NCAR-CCSM3.0 USA 1.5/3.6 1.2/2.9 1.3/3.2 69/169 78/189 84/203 −15/−50 46/93 13/29 69/88 123/194 90/141 15 NCAR-PCM1 USA 1.4/3.5 1.3/3.4 1.5/3.8 45/114 2/4 75/192 1/−20 7/−1 8/3 79/99 98/136 87/133 16 UKMO-HadCM3 UK 2.3/5.7 1.7/4.2 1.7/4.1 −234/−582 35/86 94/234 −86/−317 23/38 −18/−69 13/−133 106/149 64/73 17 UKMO-HadGEM1 UK 1.8/4.3 1.7/4.2 1.5/3.7 −125/−305 41/99 89/218 −33/−143 0/−8 5/6 57/10 89/134 84/132 mean 1.8/4.3 1.6/4.0 1.5/3.7 −4/−14 42/103 73/180 −21/−88 19/25 −4/−26 63/48 103/146 76/98 a Data on minimum and maximum monthly temperature is available.
Humid tropical forests on a warmer planet 151 CSIRO Mk 3.0 models imply a retreat of the majority of Amazonian HTFs (up to 80% of current HTF extent in the tropical American region), and patterns from seven models (41% of the dataset) predict at least a 10 per cent contraction of HTF extent. The northeastern coast of Amazonia is partly buffered from this risk because of the locally high rainfall at the oceanic boundary (at least at +2 ◦ C), a feature that is not apparent in lower resolution climate-model output. The forest zone of Central America and the Caribbean region (Yucatan, Guatemala, Honduras, Cuba) also shows high probability of forest retreat. The severity of the predicted HTF niche contraction, especially in the case of South America, depends on the adjustment procedure, which calibrates precipitation patterns according to each AOGCM’s skill to reproduce the contemporary precipitation regime. Figures S2 and S3 in the electronic supplementary material present scenarios generated with precipitation patterns without adjustment, which lead to a somewhat smaller HTF niche contraction. The scenario of forest expansion in some parts of Africa is the most robust among all regional projections (>80% of models predict some expansion). In the +2 ◦ C scenario, the HTF niche in the Congo Basin shows relatively little movement, with equally likely changes in both directions predicted mainly at the fringes. Data from one model predicts the possibility of substantial retreat of Congo Basin HTFs (up to approx. 20% of total area), but there also appears to be potential for eastward expansion of the humid forest niche north of Lake Victoria. The expansion scenario becomes very widespread in the +4 ◦ C scenario (up to approx. 50% of the current HTF area), whereas at the same time in the Congo Basin, the risk of forest retreat becomes substantial, with three models (approx. 18%) agreeing on up to 15 per cent contraction, almost leading to the split of the continuous block of forest cover into separate eastern and western parts. Three models suggest substantial contraction of west African HTF extent, leading to possible fragmentation of the upper Guinean forest zone. Analysis of the temperature-related boundary of lowland HTFs shows that areas currently too cold to sustain HTFs in Africa and Asia may contract substantially, even in the +2 ◦ C scenario. In many cases, the current temperature boundary delineates the transition between the lowland and montane HTFs. Although the actual position of this boundary is very sensitive to downscaling of climate patterns, in some cases, the potential of lowland forests to encroach onto montane forests is manifested as large mountainous areas become warmer, for example in some parts of the eastern Andes. (c) The effect of decreased ecosystem water use The climate-induced change in ET, modelled with the land-surface scheme of the HadCM3 AOGCM, was approximated through the change in atmospheric CO2, which was relatively well correlated with AET anomalies (R 2 = 0.25) of the pooled emulated ‘SRES A2’ AOGCM climate pathways. Across the simulations, the ET decreased steadily over time, reaching about 25 mm month −1 total decrease near year 2100 (figure 4b,c). On the other hand, the net primary production (NPP; figure 4a), reflecting the overall HTF functioning, was much more variable throughout the runs, and in general it first increased, and then started to decline at various points in time and with varying speed. The lowest NPP occurred at the highest temperatures, although the NPP drop below the Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
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10 M. New et al. supports the messa
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12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
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14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
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16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
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18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
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Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
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Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
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46 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. althoug
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emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
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global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
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temperature (relative to 1861-1890
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°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
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REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
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spread in mosquitoborne disease may
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Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
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