Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

More documents

Recommendations

Info

30 K. Anderson and A. Bows (a) 50 (b) (c) GtCO 2 yr –1 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 year 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 year 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 year 2080 2100 Figure 1. CO2 scenarios for approximately 37% chance of not exceeding 2 ◦ C. All scenario pathways ((a) C+1, (b) C+2, (c) C+3) are for the same cumulative twenty-first century CO2 budget of 1321 GtCO2 (blue line, Annex 1; red line, non-Annex 1; dotted line, global including deforestation). also be considered unreasonable to ascribe all of the non-Annex 1 deforestation emissions solely to non-Annex 1 nations. The global overhead approach applied here does not absolve non-Annex 1 nations of responsibility for deforestation emissions, as their available budget for energy-related emissions, along with the budget for Annex 1 nations’ energy emissions, will be reduced as a consequence of the emissions from deforestation. The deforestation scenario used throughout the paper is taken as an average of the two scenarios used within Anderson & Bows [2], but updated to include the most recent emission estimates provided by the Global Carbon Project [41]. The original Anderson and Bows scenarios were optimistic compared with scenarios within the literature; the updated estimate used for this paper (266 GtCO2 over the twenty-first century) continues in this optimistic vein. (c) CO2 plus (C +) All C+ scenario pathways take the development of emissions within the non- Annex 1 nations as the starting point and then build a related Annex 1 emission pathway that holds CO2 emissions within the chosen budget. While non-CO2 greenhouse gases are not included in the C+ scenario pathway, CO2 emissions associated with international bunkers and deforestation are included. The first three scenario pathways (C+ pathways 1–3 shown in figure 1) use the lowest CO2 budget from Macintosh [3]. The second three (C+ pathways 4–6 in figure 2) use the mid-level CO2 budget from the same paper. C+1 assumes non-Annex 1 emission growth continues at lower than economic downturn rates from 2010 to 2015 (3% per year) and that emissions peak in 2020. For global emissions to remain within the budget, Annex 1 nations are assumed to reduce their emissions from 2011 onwards towards virtually complete decarbonization by 2050. Despite such significant reductions in Annex 1 nations (approx. 11% per year), non-Annex 1 nations’ emissions still need to decline at 6 per cent per year following their peak in 2020 if global emissions are to remain within the cumulative budget. This scenario pathway results in a 56 per cent reduction from 1990 levels in emissions for Annex 1 nations by 2020, 98 per cent by 2050. Non-Annex 1 nations increase their emissions to 71 per cent higher than Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
Beyond dangerous climate change 31 (a) 50 (b) (c) GtCO 2 yr –1 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 year 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 year 2080 2100 2000 2020 2040 2060 year 2080 2100 Figure 2. CO2 scenarios for approximately 50% chance of not exceeding 2 ◦ C. All scenario pathways ((a) C+4, (b) C+5, (c) C+6) are for the same cumulative twenty-first century CO2 budget of 1578 GtCO2 (blue line, Annex 1; red line, non-Annex 1; dotted line, global including deforestation). (a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr –1 40 30 20 10 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 year 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 year Figure 3. Kyoto gas scenarios for approximately 39–48% chance of not exceeding 2 ◦ C((a) B61 not viable). For (b) B6 2, the cumulative twenty-first century CO2e budget is 2202 GtCO2e (blue line, Annex 1; red line, non-Annex 1; dotted line, total including deforestation). 1990 levels by 2020 and then reduce them to 76 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050. Using the PRIMAP tool developed by Meinshausen et al.[7,28] this scenario pathway is estimated to have a 36 per cent 20 probability of exceeding 2 ◦ C. Following the same approach, C+2 has non-Annex 1 emissions continuing to grow at a lower than pre-economic downturn rate until 2020 (3% per year), and peak in 2025. However, if this is the case, non-Annex 1 nations use the entire carbon budget and leave no emission budget for Annex 1 nations. Thus, this scenario pathway is not compatible with the lower of the cumulative carbon budgets. 21 20 PRIMAP provides a range of probabilities and a ‘best estimate’ using cumulative emissions between 2000 and 2049. Here, ‘best estimates’ are presented; probabilities may vary slightly for the same twenty-first century budget, owing to differences in the 2000–2049 emissions. 21 Given it is not possible to have an immediate cessation of emissions from all Annex 1 nations. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
Page 1 and 2: ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
Page 3 and 4: Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
Page 5 and 6: Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
Page 7 and 8: Four degrees and beyond: the potent
Page 9 and 10: Preface 5 commitments might give us
Page 11 and 12: Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypu
Page 13 and 14: 8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
Page 15 and 16: 10 M. New et al. supports the messa
Page 17 and 18: 12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
Page 19 and 20: 14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
Page 21 and 22: 16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
Page 23 and 24: 18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
Page 25 and 26: Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
Page 27 and 28: Beyond dangerous climate change 21
Page 33 and 34: (i) Energy and industrial process e
Page 35: Beyond dangerous climate change 29
Page 39 and 40: (a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
Page 41 and 42: Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
Page 51 and 52: Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
Page 53 and 54: 46 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. althoug
Page 55 and 56: 48 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. a likel
Page 57 and 58: 50 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (b) Mod
Page 59 and 60: 52 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. In most
Page 61 and 62: 54 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. rates o
Page 63 and 64: 56 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) pea
Page 65 and 66: 58 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. We can
Page 67 and 68: 60 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) rel
Page 69 and 70: 62 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) 0.3
Page 71 and 72: 64 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. 4. Conc
Page 73 and 74: 66 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. increas
Page 75 and 76: Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypu
Page 77 and 78: emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
Page 79 and 80: Review. Global warming reaching 4
Page 83 and 84: global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
Page 87 and 88:
temperature (relative to 1861-1890
Page 89 and 90:
°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
Page 91 and 92:
Review. Global warming reaching 4
Page 93 and 94:
Regional temperature and precipitat
Page 95 and 96:
86 M. G. Sanderson et al. technical
Page 97 and 98:
88 M. G. Sanderson et al. Table 1.
Page 99 and 100:
90 M. G. Sanderson et al. (a) 90°
Page 101 and 102:
92 M. G. Sanderson et al. An area o
Page 103 and 104:
94 M. G. Sanderson et al. South Ame
Page 105 and 106:
96 M. G. Sanderson et al. For DJF (
Page 107 and 108:
98 M. G. Sanderson et al. 12 Betts,
Page 109 and 110:
Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypu
Page 111 and 112:
Water availability in +2 ◦ C and
Page 113 and 114:
(ii) Water stress index Water avail
Page 115 and 116:
(b) (c) (d) (a) Water availability
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
(a) number of models, black line nu
Page 121 and 122:
change in run-off (%) change in run
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Agriculture and food systems in sub
Page 129 and 130:
118 P. K. Thornton et al. 1. Introd
Page 131 and 132:
120 P. K. Thornton et al. increases
Page 133 and 134:
122 P. K. Thornton et al. Table 1.
Page 135 and 136:
124 P. K. Thornton et al. century.
Page 137 and 138:
126 P. K. Thornton et al. and polit
Page 139 and 140:
128 P. K. Thornton et al. — The r
Page 141 and 142:
130 P. K. Thornton et al. keepers i
Page 143 and 144:
132 P. K. Thornton et al. 3 Frayne,
Page 145 and 146:
134 P. K. Thornton et al. 41 Erikse
Page 147 and 148:
136 P. K. Thornton et al. 83 Challi
Page 149 and 150:
Page 151 and 152:
Humid tropical forests on a warmer
Page 153 and 154:
(a) Humid tropical forests on a war
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
Page 161 and 162:
0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 (a)
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 0
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Page 171 and 172:
Page 173 and 174:
Sea-level rise and its possible imp
Page 175 and 176:
162 R. J. Nicholls et al. expected.
Page 177 and 178:
164 R. J. Nicholls et al. sea-level
Page 179 and 180:
166 R. J. Nicholls et al. mean temp
Page 181 and 182:
168 R. J. Nicholls et al. interglac
Page 183 and 184:
170 R. J. Nicholls et al. discussed
Page 185 and 186:
172 R. J. Nicholls et al. land loss
Page 187 and 188:
174 R. J. Nicholls et al. global ad
Page 189 and 190:
176 R. J. Nicholls et al. Hence, th
Page 191 and 192:
178 R. J. Nicholls et al. to climat
Page 193 and 194:
180 R. J. Nicholls et al. 43 Pardae
Page 195 and 196:
Climate-induced population displace
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
Page 201 and 202:
Page 203 and 204:
Page 205 and 206:
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Page 211 and 212:
Page 213 and 214:
198 M. Stafford Smith et al. the di
Page 215 and 216:
200 M. Stafford Smith et al. greate
Page 217 and 218:
202 M. Stafford Smith et al. Table
Page 219 and 220:
204 M. Stafford Smith et al. (c) Go
Page 221 and 222:
206 M. Stafford Smith et al. mean g
Page 223 and 224:
208 M. Stafford Smith et al. These
Page 225 and 226:
210 M. Stafford Smith et al. consid
Page 227 and 228:
212 M. Stafford Smith et al. — De
Page 229 and 230:
214 M. Stafford Smith et al. 12 Lem
Page 231 and 232:
216 M. Stafford Smith et al. 51 Ste
Page 233 and 234:
REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
Page 235 and 236:
Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C w
Page 237 and 238:
Page 239 and 240:
spread in mosquitoborne disease may
Page 241 and 242:
[89,94,95] further acidification by
Page 243 and 244:
Page 245 and 246:
Page 247 and 248:
Page 249 and 250:
Page 251 and 252:
Page 253 and 254:
Page 255 and 256:
Page 257 and 258:
Page 259:
Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
show all

Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?