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Sea-level rise and possible impacts 181 64 Woodworth, P. L. & Blackman, D. L. 2004 Evidence for systematic changes in extreme high waters since the mid-1970s. J. Clim. 17, 1190–1197. (doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004) 0172.0.CO;2) 65 Haigh, I., Nicholls, R. & Wells, N. 2010 Assessing changes in extreme sea levels: application to the English Channel, 1900–2006. Cont. Shelf Res. 30, 1042–1055. (doi:10.1016/ j.csr.2010.02.002) 66 Menendez, M. & Woodworth, P. L. In press. Changes in extreme high water levels based on a quasi-global tide-gauge dataset. J. Geophys. Res. (doi:10.1029.2009JC005997) 67 Hoozemans, F. J., Marchand, M. & Pennekamp, H. 1993 Sea level rise: a global vulnerability assessment: vulnerability assessments for population, coastal wetlands and rice production on a global scale, revised edn. The Hague, The Netherlands: Delft Hydraulics and Rijkswaterstaat. 68 Nicholls, R. J. 2004 Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Glob. Environ. Change 14, 69–86. (doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2003.10.007) 69 Tol, R. S. J. & Yohe, G. W. 2007 The weakest link hypothesis for adaptive capacity: an empirical test. Glob. Environ. Change 17, 218–227. (doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.08.001) 70 Tol, R. S. J. 2006 The DIVA model: socio-economic scenarios, impacts and adaptation and world heritage. In DINAS-COAST Consortium 2006. DIVA 1.5.5, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany. See http://www.pik-potsdam.de/diva. 71 Hamilton, J. M., Maddison, D. J. & Tol, R. S. J. 2005 Climate change and international tourism: a simulation study. Glob. Environ. Change 15, 253–266. (doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2004.12.009) 72 Hamilton, J. M., Maddison, D. J. & Tol, R. S. J. 2005 Effects of climate change on international tourism. Clim. Res. 29, 245–254. (doi:10.3354/cr029245) 73 Nicholls, R. J., Tol, R. S. J. & Vafeidis, A. T. 2008 Global estimates of the impact of a collapse of the west Antarctic ice sheet: an application of FUND. Clim. Change 91, 171–191. (doi:10.1007/s10584-008-9424-y) 74 Tol, R. S. J. 2007 The double trade-off between adaptation and mitigation for sea-level rise: an application of FUND. Mitigation Adaptation Strat. Glob. Change 12, 741–753. (doi:10.1007/ s11027-007-9097-2) 75 Myers, N. 2001 Environmental refugees: our latest understanding. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 357, 609–613. (doi:10.1098/rstb.2001.0953) 76 Parry, M. L. et al. 2009 Assessing the costs of adaptation to climate change: a review of the UNFCCC and other recent estimates. London, UK: International Institute for Environment and Development and Grantham Institute for Climate Change. 77 World Bank. 2010 The economics of adaptation to climate change. A synthesis report, final consultation draft. World Bank, Washington, DC. See http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ EXTCC/Resources/EACC_FinalSynthesisReport0803_2010.pdf. 78 Betts, R. A., Collins, M., Hemming, D. L., Jones, C. D., Lowe, J. A. & Sanderson, M. G. 2010 When could global warming reach 4 ◦ C? Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 368, 67–84. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2010.0292) 79 Wynne, A. 2010 Evacuation remains essential to New Orleans flood plans/Post-Katrina project speeds to conclusion. New Civ. Eng. 02.09.10, 5–7. 80 Grossi, P. & Muir-Wood, R. 2006 Flood risk in New Orleans: implications for future management and insurability. London, UK: Risk Management Solutions. 81 Franck, T. R. 2009 Coastal communities and climate change: a dynamic model of risk perception, storms, and adaptation. PhD thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA. 82 Woodroffe, C. D., Nicholls, R. J., Saito, Y., Chen, Z. & Goodbred, S. L. 2006 Landscape variability and the response of Asian megadeltas to environmental change. In Global change implications for coasts in the Asia-Pacific region (ed. N. Harvey), pp. 277–314. London, UK: Springer. 83 Barnett, J. & Adger, W. N. 2003 Climate dangers and atoll countries. Clim. Change 61, 321–337. (doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000004559.08755.88) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
Climate-induced population displacements in a 4° C+ world François Gemenne Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2011 369, 182-195 doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0287 References Rapid response Subject collections Email alerting service Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 This article cites 20 articles, 3 of which can be accessed free http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934/182.full. html#ref-list-1 Respond to this article http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/letters/submit/roypta;369/ 1934/182 Articles on similar topics can be found in the following collections climatology (75 articles) To subscribe to Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A go to: http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/subscriptions Receive free email alerts when new articles cite this article - sign up in the box at the top right-hand corner of the article or click here This journal is © 2011 The Royal Society
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
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10 M. New et al. supports the messa
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12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
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14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
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16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
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18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
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Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
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Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
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46 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. althoug
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48 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. a likel
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50 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (b) Mod
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52 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. In most
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54 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. rates o
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56 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) pea
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60 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) rel
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62 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. (a) 0.3
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64 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. 4. Conc
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66 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. increas
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emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
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global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
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temperature (relative to 1861-1890
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°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
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Regional temperature and precipitat
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86 M. G. Sanderson et al. technical
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88 M. G. Sanderson et al. Table 1.
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90 M. G. Sanderson et al. (a) 90°
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92 M. G. Sanderson et al. An area o
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96 M. G. Sanderson et al. For DJF (
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98 M. G. Sanderson et al. 12 Betts,
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Water availability in +2 ◦ C and
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(ii) Water stress index Water avail
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(b) (c) (d) (a) Water availability
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(a) number of models, black line nu
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change in run-off (%) change in run
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Agriculture and food systems in sub
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118 P. K. Thornton et al. 1. Introd
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120 P. K. Thornton et al. increases
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122 P. K. Thornton et al. Table 1.
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124 P. K. Thornton et al. century.
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126 P. K. Thornton et al. and polit
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128 P. K. Thornton et al. — The r
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130 P. K. Thornton et al. keepers i
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Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
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