Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

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Temperature and precipitation change 97 changes occur in northern and southern Africa, southern Europe and the adjacent part of Central Asia and parts of Brazil. The uncertainty in the regions affected by high-end climate change during DJF (the Arctic) is mostly due to differences in modelled temperature increases, which are caused by biases in simulated ice sheet extent and snow cover. However, for JJA, the uncertainty mostly originates from differences in modelled precipitation changes. Much of the uncertainty in these results originates from the poor agreement in temperature and precipitation changes between the models in some areas. If agreement in these changes from the next generation of climate models, which will be used for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, is greater, this work could be repeated to highlight other areas that could be strongly affected by high-end climate change. Further work could consider changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. This work was supported by the Joint DECC and Defra Integrated Climate Programme— DECC/Defra (GA01101). The authors also thank the various research groups for providing their model data, and the PCMDI for archiving the data. References 1 Meinshausen, M., Meinshausen, N., Hare, W., Raper, S. C. B., Frieler, K., Knutti, R., Frame, D. J. & Allen, M. R. 2009 Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 ◦ C. Nature 458, 1158–1162. (doi:10.1038/nature08017) 2 Rogelj, J., Nabel, J., Chen, C., Hare, W., Markmann, K., Meinshausen, M., Schaeffer, M., Macey, K. & Höhne, N. 2010 Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry. Nature 464, 1126–1128. (doi:10.1038/4641126a) 3 IPCC. 2007 Summary for policymakers. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor & H. L. Miller). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 4 Meehl, G. A. et al. 2007 Global climate projections. In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor & H. L. Miller). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 5 Fischlin, A. et al. 2007 Ecosystems, their properties, goods and services. In IPCC 2007. Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, P. J. van der Linden & C. E. Hanson). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 6 Giorgi, F. & Bi, X. 2005 Updated regional precipitation and temperature changes for the 21st century from ensembles of recent AOGCM simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L21715. (doi:10.1029/2005GL024288) 7 IPCC. 2000 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (eds N. Nakicenovic & R. Swart). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. 8 Giorgi, F. & Bi, X. 2009 Time of emergence (TOE) of GHG-forced precipitation change hotspots. Geophys. Res. Lett. 36, L06709. (doi:10.1029/2009GL037593) 9 Baettig, M. B., Wild, M. & Imboden, D. M. 2007 A climate change index: where climate change may be most prominent in the 21st century. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L01705. (doi:10.1029/ 2006GL028159) 10 Johns, T. C. et al. 2006 The new Hadley centre climate model HadGEM1: evaluation of coupled simulations. J. Clim. 19, 1327–1353. (doi:10.1175/JCLI3712.1) 11 Murphy, J. M., Booth, B. B. B., Collins, M., Harris, G. R., Sexton, D. M. H. & Webb, M. J. 2007 A methodology for probabilistic predictions of regional climate change from perturbed physics ensembles. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 365, 1993–2028. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2007.2077) Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
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12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
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18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
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Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
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Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
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46 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. althoug
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REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
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Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C w
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spread in mosquitoborne disease may
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[89,94,95] further acidification by
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Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
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