Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

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(a) 90° N 45° N 0 45° S 90° S 180° (b) 90° N 45° N 0 45° S 90° S 180° (c) 90° N 45° N 0 45° S 90° S 180° 1 2 1 1 2 –1.0 Temperature and precipitation change 91 1 1 3 1 1 1 90° W 0 90° E 180° 90° W 0 90° E 180° 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.4 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 90° W 1 22 2 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 90° E 180° –0.7 –0.3 0 0.3 0.7 1.0 Figure 2. Median temperature responses simulated by the models per degree of global mean temperature increase for JJA. (a) Median temperature changes from the high-end members, shown by the colour-shaded contours. The solid contours with labels show the range of temperature changes across the high-end models (again scaled by the global mean temperature rise). Note that the temperature scale changes at 3 ◦ C. (b) As(a), but for the non-high-end members. (c) Difference between the (scaled) medians of the high-end and non-high-end members. A positive value indicates that the temperatures in the high-end models are warmer than the non-high-end models. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010 1 1
92 M. G. Sanderson et al. An area of water where almost no warming occurs is projected to form in the northern North Atlantic, between the UK and Greenland, and this area is larger in the high-end models. This cooler water could be caused by a slowing of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation [4]. None of the models analysed by the IPCC [4] simulates an increase in this circulation with a warming climate, and the modelled response varies between essentially no change and a 50 per cent reduction. There may also be increased deep vertical mixing in the highend models, which acts to warm waters well below the surface but reduces the surface warming [13]. A similar area of water is also projected to form over much of the Southern Ocean. The spatial extent of this cooler water is larger in the high-end models than in the non-high-end models. The temperature range across the models in the Arctic and Antarctic regions is of a magnitude similar to or larger than the median change, indicating that biases resulting from differences in modelled ice and snow amounts are similar to or larger than the climate change response [16]. In JJA, the largest differences in normalized regional temperature changes between the high-end and non-high-end members occur over land and are mostly confined to smaller areas between 45 ◦ N and 45 ◦ S(figure 2a,b). The magnitude of these temperature changes is smaller than those seen for DJF. The land–ocean temperature contrast is also larger than in DJF. Enhanced warming is seen over much of the USA, parts of South America, the Mediterranean areas, northern and southern Africa, Central Asia and parts of northern Australia (colour-shaded contours). This normalized warming generally lies between 1.4 ◦ C and 2 ◦ C per 1 ◦ C global warming. The 5th–95th percentile temperature range across the models (shown by solid contours with labels) in these regions is smaller and has a different spatial pattern, suggesting that these simulated patterns of warming are not largely controlled by model biases. A small area with a high degree of warming is simulated around the coast of Antarctica, where the inter-model temperature range is also large. Again, this area of warming is likely to result from biases in modelled sea ice amounts [16]. The difference in scaled temperatures between the high-end and non-high-end models is shown in figure 2c. The high-end models project normalized regional warming, which is 0.2–0.6 ◦ C per 1 ◦ C global warming greater over much of the Northern Hemisphere land masses. Smaller areas of relatively faster regional warming are also seen over South America, southern Africa and Australia. This difference could be due to larger poleward energy transport in the high-end models, which is simulated to increase with warmer temperatures [15]. A small area of less warm water in the North Atlantic Ocean is simulated for JJA, and the warming is slightly greater than in DJF. Around Antarctica, both positive and negative differences in warming between the high-end and non-highend models are seen. These differences are likely to be due to variations in the modelled responses of the sea ice. Overall, the patterns of the response of regional climate to global climate change in the high-end and non-high-end models are similar during DJF and JJA. However, the regional response of the high-end models is larger, particularly during JJA. Much of the warming seen during DJF over high northern latitudes is strongly controlled by each model’s simulation of ice and snow cover during the preindustrial period, and how they respond to a warming climate. Models are known to have large biases in snow and ice cover over high northern latitudes [16]. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
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10 M. New et al. supports the messa
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12 M. New et al. Table 1. Impacts a
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14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
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16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
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18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
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Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
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Humid tropical forests on a warmer
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(a) Humid tropical forests on a war
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 (a)
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 0
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Sea-level rise and its possible imp
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162 R. J. Nicholls et al. expected.
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164 R. J. Nicholls et al. sea-level
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166 R. J. Nicholls et al. mean temp
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168 R. J. Nicholls et al. interglac
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170 R. J. Nicholls et al. discussed
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172 R. J. Nicholls et al. land loss
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174 R. J. Nicholls et al. global ad
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176 R. J. Nicholls et al. Hence, th
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178 R. J. Nicholls et al. to climat
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180 R. J. Nicholls et al. 43 Pardae
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Climate-induced population displace
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198 M. Stafford Smith et al. the di
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204 M. Stafford Smith et al. (c) Go
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REVIEW Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011
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Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C w
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spread in mosquitoborne disease may
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[89,94,95] further acidification by
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Editorial Editorial 3 D. Garner Pre
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