Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global ... - Amper

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218 R. Warren 1. Introduction The projections of climate change impacts under a 4 ◦ C mean global temperature rise contained in this volume, like most other assessments of future climate change impacts, generally consider impacts in each sector and region independently. Such projections often consider a set (or sets) of future socioeconomic futures, some of which may include a level of mitigation action. This is useful to indicate the levels of impacts that might occur, with and without mitigation, but the utility of such projections would be greatly improved by increased consideration of the interactions between sectoral and regional processes, including human adaptation to climate change impacts, as well as mitigation actions. Such interactions may have profound consequences for the future wellbeing of human and natural capital, particularly for global temperature rises as large as 4 ◦ C (relative to preindustrial levels). Many of these interactions are currently not considered, or not well integrated, into quantitative estimations of potential consequences of climate change, or of benefits of mitigation action. This is especially true given the potentially important feedback processes in the Earth system becoming evident through observations, yet not currently adequately simulated by global circulation models (GCMs). Such feedbacks could greatly exacerbate impacts for a given greenhouse gas emission scenario beyond those estimated by models. This review provides a brief summary of some climate change impact estimates from this volume and elsewhere, comparing impacts under 4 ◦ C of global mean temperature rise (hereafter referred to as ‘a 4 ◦ C world’) with those under 2 ◦ C (hereafter referred to as ‘a 2 ◦ C world’). It discusses prominent examples of eight types of potentially significant interactions and the degree to which they have been handled in various modelling approaches. It does not, however, provide complete coverage of all types of interactions, or of all possible interactions within each type. It notes that these processes might be excluded from modelling exercises because of an inability to quantify the strength of the interaction, and also because of ignorance of the importance of interactions between disparate disciplines. It also suggests potential ways forward in modelling these interactions. The types of interactions considered are: — climate change-induced impacts in one sector affecting other sectors in the same region; — human adaptation to climate change-induced impacts in one sector affecting other sectors in the same region; — climate change impacts in one region having consequences for other regions; — climate change mitigation and adaptation involving changes in land use, which then interacts in a complex fashion with climate change and its impacts; — impacts in different sectors coincident in the same region having disastrous consequences therein; — projected increases in extreme weather events exacerbating climate change impacts; — interactions within sectors that are not combined in analyses; and — feedback processes that could exacerbate climate change impacts. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
Review. Interactions in a 4 ◦ C world 219 Table 1. Typology of IAMs focusing on their potential for representation of interactions between climate change impacts in various sectors, and between climate change impacts and mitigation/adaptation processes. potential to represent interactions none low high question to which typically applied/ for which designed representation of climate change impacts cost–benefit analysis scenario analysis or tolerable windows simple, either global (PAGE) or regional; sectoral detail only in FUND representation of global economy examples FUND, PAGE, MERGE, DICE/RICE approach look-up tables based on process-based model output scenario analysis process based detailed detailed detailed ICLIPS, AIM IMAGE, CIAS, GCAM There are thousands of studies examining impacts on a single sector within a single region with no interactions. When considering impacts holistically at a global scale, Parry [1] provides one of the first studies providing a consistent assessment across global regions and sectors. This study used the full consistent set of SRES emissions scenarios [2], consistent downscaled climate scenarios and up-to-date climate and impact models. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) were developed to encompass an interdisciplinary approach to the study of climate change and climate change policy. Goodess et al. [3] provide a full review and categorization of these models. A brief summary of the types of models is given here (table 1). Biophysically based IAMs such as IMAGE, AIM, ICLIPS, GCAM and CLIMPACTS ([3] and references therein) variously examine sectors and/or regions of the world, spanning multiple disciplines, and thus theoretically allowing models to capture interactions between sectors. However, few have yet exploited their full potential to study interactions. Hence, table 1 refers to the potential for IAMs to represent interactions, rather than whether they actually do, or have done so. Representation of impacts varies significantly between these frameworks. In the case of IMAGE, they are detailed and include interactions such as carbon cycle-induced terrestrial vegetation die-back owing to climate change (leading to an accelerated rate of climate change), links between climate change, land-use change and changes to agricultural systems, and demographics [4]. In others, such as ICLIPS and AIM, look-up tables relating impacts to climate variables are used. This precludes detailed interaction between underlying impact model components. The CIAS integrated modelling framework [5] is designed to handle interactions between sectors. Studies considering climate change impacts in a holistic fashion within or without an IA framework allow estimation of climate change impacts at a regional scale, and, in some cases, a relatively high spatial resolution. However, simple integrated models focusing on cost–benefit analysis provide only Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) Downloaded from rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org on November 30, 2010
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ISSN 1364-503X volume 369 number 19
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Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A (2011) 369,
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Editorial David Garner Phil. Trans.
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Four degrees and beyond: the potent
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Preface 5 commitments might give us
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8 M. New et al. In the final plenar
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14 M. New et al. actors (NNSAs)—r
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16 M. New et al. as permanent crop
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18 M. New et al. 24 Boe, J. L., Hal
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Beyond 'dangerous' climate change:
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Beyond dangerous climate change 21
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(i) Energy and industrial process e
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(a) 50 (b) GtCO 2e yr -1 40 30 20 1
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Table 1. Summary of scenario pathwa
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Cumulative carbon emissions, emissi
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46 N. H. A. Bowerman et al. althoug
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emissions (GtC) Review. Global warm
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global surface warming (°C) 6 5 4
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temperature (relative to 1861-1890
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°C above pre-industrial 8 7 6 5 4
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Regional temperature and precipitat
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88 M. G. Sanderson et al. Table 1.
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98 M. G. Sanderson et al. 12 Betts,
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Water availability in +2 ◦ C and
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(ii) Water stress index Water avail
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(b) (c) (d) (a) Water availability
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(a) number of models, black line nu
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change in run-off (%) change in run
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Agriculture and food systems in sub
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118 P. K. Thornton et al. 1. Introd
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120 P. K. Thornton et al. increases
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122 P. K. Thornton et al. Table 1.
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124 P. K. Thornton et al. century.
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 (a)
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0 retraction risk 17 120 80 40 0
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Sea-level rise and its possible imp
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